利用模糊数学方法建立汶川地震滑坡灾害评判标准
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摘要
利用汶川地震主震在龙门山震区的强震资料,建立了利用地震动参数估计斜坡位移的Newmark累积位移模型。借助于模糊数学中的隶属函数方法,实现了对模型估计累积位移的隶属度定量计算,进而用以判定滑坡危险性分级。为使计算结果定量化,进一步利用模糊转换方法,将定性的滑坡危险性判定结果转换为定量的概率表达,使滑坡判定结果可以继续应用于其他环节的计算分析。以汶川地震在龙门山震区的滑坡分布为例,对模型的计算结果及其定量转换结果与实际情况进行了分析,表明模型结果与实际情况非常吻合。分析认为,以概率方式可以使滑坡灾害的空间分布描述更为准确,文中的方法使之得以实现。
The Newmark accumulated displacement evaluation model was built based on the ground motion data obtained from the Wenchuan main shock distributed along the Longmenshan area.The fuzzy membership functions were used to calculate the degree of memberships when an accumulated displacement was obtained from the evaluation model;and the grade of landslide risks can be decided with the help of the degree of memberships.To quantify the evaluation results,the fuzzy conversion approach was used to convert the degree of memberships into a probabilistic number;and by this way,more depth calculation can be carried out.As an example,the landslides distribution induced by the Wenchuan earthquake was given to compare with the evaluation results,which show the evaluation model and the quantified probabilistic numbers calculated for each region are fit well with the real case.Analysis shows it is more accurate to describe the regional landslides hazards distribution in probabilistic way,which can be achieved by the fuzzy mathematical method.
The Newmark accumulated displacement evaluation model was built based on the ground motion data obtained from the Wenchuan main shock distributed along the Longmenshan area.The fuzzy membership functions were used to calculate the degree of memberships when an accumulated displacement was obtained from the evaluation model;and the grade of landslide risks can be decided with the help of the degree of memberships.To quantify the evaluation results,the fuzzy conversion approach was used to convert the degree of memberships into a probabilistic number;and by this way,more depth calculation can be carried out.As an example,the landslides distribution induced by the Wenchuan earthquake was given to compare with the evaluation results,which show the evaluation model and the quantified probabilistic numbers calculated for each region are fit well with the real case.Analysis shows it is more accurate to describe the regional landslides hazards distribution in probabilistic way,which can be achieved by the fuzzy mathematical method.
引文
[1]李忠生.国内外地震滑坡灾害研究综述[J].灾害学,2003,18(4):64-70.LI Zhong-sheng.The state of the art of the research on seismic landslide hazard at home and abroad[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2003,18(4):64-70.
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[3]许福,戴福初,姚鑫.汶川地震诱发滑坡灾害的数量与面积[J].科技导报,2009,27(11):79-81.XU Chong,DAI Fu-chu,YAO Xin.Incidence number and affected area of Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslides[J].Science and Technology Report,2009,27(11):79-81.
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[12]DANIEL PRADEL,PATRICK M SMITH,JONATHAN P STEWART,et al.Case history of landslide movement during the northridge earthquake[J].Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,2005,131(11):1360-1369.
[13]谢尚佑.利用近年大规模地震的强震资料修正Newmark经验式[硕士论文D].台北:中央大学,2006.
[14]王秀英,聂高众.汶川Ms8.0级地震诱发崩滑特点及其与地震动参数对应关系初析[J].岩土工程学报,2009,31(9):1378-1383.WANG Xiu-ying,NIE Gao-zhong.Characteristics of landslides induced by Wenchuan Ms8.0earthquake and the preliminary analysis of their relations with ground motion parameters[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2009,31(9):1378-1383.
[15]王秀英,聂高众,王登伟.利用强震记录研究汶川地震诱发滑坡[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(11):2369-2376.WANG Xiu-ying,NIE Gao-zhong,WANG Deng-wei.Analysis of landslides induced by Wenchuan earthquake by ground motion records[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2009,28(11):2369-2376.
[16]王秀英.地震滑坡灾害快速评估技术及对应急影响研究[博士论文D].北京:中国地震局地质研究所,2009.
[17]王秀英,聂高众,王登伟.汶川地震诱发滑坡与地震动峰值加速度对应关系研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(1):82-89.WANG Xiu-ying,NIE Gao-zhong,WANG Deng-wei.Research on relationship between landslides and peak ground acceleration induced by Wenchuan earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2010,29(1):82-89.
[18]王秀英,聂高众,张玲.汶川地震触发崩滑与Arias强度关系研究[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2010,18(4):645-656.WANG Xiu-ying,NIE Gao-zhong,ZHANG Ling.Relationship between landslides induced by the Wenchuan earthquake and Arias Intensity[J].Journal ofBasic Science and Engineering,2010,18(4):645-656.
[19]ARIAS A.A measure of earthquake intensity[C]//Seismic Design for Nuclear Power Plants.Cambridge,Mass-achusetts:MIT Press.1970:438-483.
[20]胡聿贤.地震工程学(第二版)[M].北京:地震出版社,2006.
[21]吴树仁,石菊松,姚鑫,等.四川汶川地震地质灾害活动强度分析评价[J].地质通报,2008,27(11):1900-1906.WU Shu-ren,SHI Ju-song,YAO Xin,et al.Analysis and evaluation of geohazard intensity of the Wenchuan earthquake,Sichuan,China[J].Geological Bulletin of China,2008,27(11):1900-1906.
[22]LI Xiao-jun,ZHOU Zheng-hua,YU Hai-ying,et al.Strong motion observations and recordings from the great Wenchuan erthquake[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2008,7(3):235-246.
[23]MICHAEL S.Reichle.Recommended criteria for delineating seismic hazard zones in California[R].U.S.A.:USGS Special Publication,2004.
[24]JIBSON R W,KEEFER D K.Analysis of the seismic origin of landslides:Examples from the new madrid seismic zone[J].Geological Society of America,1993,105(4):521-536.
[25]国土资源部地质环境监测院.“5.12”汶川地震区地质灾害防治区划图[R].北京:国土资源部地质环境院,2008.
[26]黄润秋,李为乐.“5.12”汶川大地震触发地质灾害的发育分布规律研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(12):2585-2592.HUANG Rui-qui,LI Wei-le.Research on development and distribution rules of geohazards induced by Wenchuan earthquake on May12[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(12):2585-2592.
[2]KEEFER D K.Landslides caused by earthquakes[J].Geological Society of America Bulletin,1984,95:406-421.
[3]许福,戴福初,姚鑫.汶川地震诱发滑坡灾害的数量与面积[J].科技导报,2009,27(11):79-81.XU Chong,DAI Fu-chu,YAO Xin.Incidence number and affected area of Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslides[J].Science and Technology Report,2009,27(11):79-81.
[4]刘传正.四川汶川地震灾害与地质环境安全[J].地质通报,2008,27(11):1907-1912.LIU Chuan-zheng.Disasters induced by the Wenchuan earthquakes,Sichuan,China,and geoenvironmental safety[J].Geological Bulletin of China,2008,27(11):1907-1912.
[5]MILES S B,HOC L.Rigorous landslide hazard zonation using Newmark's method and stochastic ground motion simulation[J].Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,1999,18(4):305-323.
[6]ROMEO R.Seismically induced landslide displacements:a predictive model[J].Engineering Geology,2000,58(3-4):337-351.
[7]JIBSON R W,HARP E L,MICHAEL J A.A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps[J].Engineering Geology,2000,58(3-4):271-289.
[8]JIBSON R W.Regression models for estimating coseismic landslide displacement[J].Engineering Geology,2007,91:209-218.
[9]WILSON R C,KEEFER D K.Predicting areal limits of earthquake-induced landsliding[C]//Evaluating Earthquakes in the Los Angeles Region——An Earth-science Perspe-ctive.[S.l.]:[s.n.],1985:317-345.
[10]WIECZOREK G F,WILSON R C,HARP E L.Map showing slope stability during earthquake of San Mateo County,California[R].California:[s.n.],1985.
[11]WILSON R C,KEEFER D K.Dynamic analysis of a slope failure from the6August1979Coyote Lake,California,Earthquake[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1983,73(3):863-877.
[12]DANIEL PRADEL,PATRICK M SMITH,JONATHAN P STEWART,et al.Case history of landslide movement during the northridge earthquake[J].Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,2005,131(11):1360-1369.
[13]谢尚佑.利用近年大规模地震的强震资料修正Newmark经验式[硕士论文D].台北:中央大学,2006.
[14]王秀英,聂高众.汶川Ms8.0级地震诱发崩滑特点及其与地震动参数对应关系初析[J].岩土工程学报,2009,31(9):1378-1383.WANG Xiu-ying,NIE Gao-zhong.Characteristics of landslides induced by Wenchuan Ms8.0earthquake and the preliminary analysis of their relations with ground motion parameters[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2009,31(9):1378-1383.
[15]王秀英,聂高众,王登伟.利用强震记录研究汶川地震诱发滑坡[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(11):2369-2376.WANG Xiu-ying,NIE Gao-zhong,WANG Deng-wei.Analysis of landslides induced by Wenchuan earthquake by ground motion records[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2009,28(11):2369-2376.
[16]王秀英.地震滑坡灾害快速评估技术及对应急影响研究[博士论文D].北京:中国地震局地质研究所,2009.
[17]王秀英,聂高众,王登伟.汶川地震诱发滑坡与地震动峰值加速度对应关系研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(1):82-89.WANG Xiu-ying,NIE Gao-zhong,WANG Deng-wei.Research on relationship between landslides and peak ground acceleration induced by Wenchuan earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2010,29(1):82-89.
[18]王秀英,聂高众,张玲.汶川地震触发崩滑与Arias强度关系研究[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2010,18(4):645-656.WANG Xiu-ying,NIE Gao-zhong,ZHANG Ling.Relationship between landslides induced by the Wenchuan earthquake and Arias Intensity[J].Journal ofBasic Science and Engineering,2010,18(4):645-656.
[19]ARIAS A.A measure of earthquake intensity[C]//Seismic Design for Nuclear Power Plants.Cambridge,Mass-achusetts:MIT Press.1970:438-483.
[20]胡聿贤.地震工程学(第二版)[M].北京:地震出版社,2006.
[21]吴树仁,石菊松,姚鑫,等.四川汶川地震地质灾害活动强度分析评价[J].地质通报,2008,27(11):1900-1906.WU Shu-ren,SHI Ju-song,YAO Xin,et al.Analysis and evaluation of geohazard intensity of the Wenchuan earthquake,Sichuan,China[J].Geological Bulletin of China,2008,27(11):1900-1906.
[22]LI Xiao-jun,ZHOU Zheng-hua,YU Hai-ying,et al.Strong motion observations and recordings from the great Wenchuan erthquake[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2008,7(3):235-246.
[23]MICHAEL S.Reichle.Recommended criteria for delineating seismic hazard zones in California[R].U.S.A.:USGS Special Publication,2004.
[24]JIBSON R W,KEEFER D K.Analysis of the seismic origin of landslides:Examples from the new madrid seismic zone[J].Geological Society of America,1993,105(4):521-536.
[25]国土资源部地质环境监测院.“5.12”汶川地震区地质灾害防治区划图[R].北京:国土资源部地质环境院,2008.
[26]黄润秋,李为乐.“5.12”汶川大地震触发地质灾害的发育分布规律研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(12):2585-2592.HUANG Rui-qui,LI Wei-le.Research on development and distribution rules of geohazards induced by Wenchuan earthquake on May12[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(12):2585-2592.
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