基于Vague集的城市地震灾害综合脆弱性度量及其应用
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摘要
为度量城市地震灾害综合脆弱性及灾害中生命及财产的可挽救性,将社会脆弱性、应急系统脆弱性引入城市综合脆弱性研究。利用Vague集的相似度量理论,构建基于Vague集的城市地震灾害综合脆弱性度量模型;扩展可挽救性的概念,建立基于综合脆弱性度量的城市地震灾害可挽救性度量模型。以2003年日本北海道地震损失为标准,通过上述2个模型,得到某城市地震灾害综合脆弱度为2.76×10-4,可挽救度分别为:死亡人数减少18人、重伤人数减少72人、直接经济损失减少0.2亿元人民币。
To measure the comprehensive vulnerability to urban earthquake disaster and salvability of life and property in earthquake disaster,the social vulnerability and emergency system vulnerability were introduced into the urban comprehensive vulnerability research,and the Vague set similarity theory was used to establish a measurement model of urban comprehensive vulnerability to earthquake disaster.And the concept of salvability was extended;a model to measure salvability of earthquake disaster based on the comprehensive vulnerability measurement was constructed.In case study,losses from Hokkaido earthquake in Japan in 2003 were regarded as the standard in calculating the vulnerability to earthquake disaster and salvability of a certain city.For the city,calculated vulnerability was 2.76×10-4,and the number of deaths were decreased by 18 people and the seriously injured were decreased by 72 and the direct economic loss were decreased by 20 million.
To measure the comprehensive vulnerability to urban earthquake disaster and salvability of life and property in earthquake disaster,the social vulnerability and emergency system vulnerability were introduced into the urban comprehensive vulnerability research,and the Vague set similarity theory was used to establish a measurement model of urban comprehensive vulnerability to earthquake disaster.And the concept of salvability was extended;a model to measure salvability of earthquake disaster based on the comprehensive vulnerability measurement was constructed.In case study,losses from Hokkaido earthquake in Japan in 2003 were regarded as the standard in calculating the vulnerability to earthquake disaster and salvability of a certain city.For the city,calculated vulnerability was 2.76×10-4,and the number of deaths were decreased by 18 people and the seriously injured were decreased by 72 and the direct economic loss were decreased by 20 million.
引文
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[13]邱菀华.管理决策与应用熵学[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2001:12-48.QIU Wan-hua.Management Decision and Applied Entropy[M].Beijing:China Machine Press,2001:12-48.
[14]李卫平.1996—2003年全世界灾害地震统计分析[J].华北地震科学,2005,23(2):54-64.LI Wei-ping.Statistical analysis of the seismic disaster from 1996 to 2003[J].North China Earthquake Sciences,2005,23(2):54-64.
[15]上官艳秋,陈安,倪慧荟.突发事件应急管理中的“可挽救性”度量评价模型研究[J].中国软科学,2009(9):165-173.SHANGGUAN Yan-qiu,CHEN An,NI Hui-hui.Research on the assessment model for salvability in emergency manage-ment[J].China Soft Science,2009(9):165-173.
[16]尹之潜.地震灾害及损失预测方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1995:28-36.YIN Zhi-qian.Earthquake Disaster and Loss Prediction Methods[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1995:28-36.
[2]Adger W Neil.Vulnerability[J].Global Environmental Change,2006,16(3):268-281.
[3]Lisa Rygel,David O'sullivan,Bren T Yarnal.A method for constructing a social vulnerability index:an application tohurricane storm surges in a developed country[J].Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,2006,11(3):741-764.
[4]张炜熙.区域发展脆弱性研究与评估[D].天津:天津大学,2006.ZHANG Wei-xi.A Study and Assessment on Vulnerability of the Region Development[D].Tianjin:Tianjin University,2006.
[5]George E Clark,Susanne C Moser,Samuel J Ratick.Assessing the vulnerability of coastal communities to extreme storms:Thecase of Revere,MA.,USA[J].Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,1998,3(1):59-82.
[6]Wen-Lung Gau,Daniel J Buehrer.Vague sets[J].IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man and Cybernetics,1993,23(2):610-614.
[7]Chen S M.Measures of similarity between Vague sets[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1995,74(2):217-223.
[8]范平,梁家荣,李天志.Vague集之间相似度量的新方法[J].计算机工程与应用,2006,42(34):70-72.FAN Ping,LIANG Jia-rong,LI Tian-zhi.New method of similarity measures between Vague sets[J].Computer Engineer-ing and Applications,2006,42(34):70-72.
[9]李凡,徐章艳.Vague集之间的相似度量[J].软件学报,2001,12(6):922-927.LI Fan,XU Zhang-yan.Measures of similarity between Vague sets[J].Journal of Software,2001,12(6):922-927.
[10]范九伦.Vague值与Vague集上的贴近度[J].系统工程理论与实践,2006,26(8):95-100.FAN Jiu-lun.Similarity measures on Vague values and Vague sets[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2006,26(8):95-100.
[11]贾增科.城市地震灾害脆弱性分析及其在应急管理中的应用研究[D].北京:北京航空航天大学,2011.JIA Zeng-ke.The Study on Analysis of Urban Vulnerability to Earthquake Disaster and Its Application in Emergency Man-agement[D].Beijing:Beihang University,2011.
[12]Minciardi R,Sacile R,Taramasso A C,et al.Modeling the vulnerability of complex territorial systems:An application tohydrological risk[J].Environmental Modeling&Software,2006,21(7):949-960.
[13]邱菀华.管理决策与应用熵学[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2001:12-48.QIU Wan-hua.Management Decision and Applied Entropy[M].Beijing:China Machine Press,2001:12-48.
[14]李卫平.1996—2003年全世界灾害地震统计分析[J].华北地震科学,2005,23(2):54-64.LI Wei-ping.Statistical analysis of the seismic disaster from 1996 to 2003[J].North China Earthquake Sciences,2005,23(2):54-64.
[15]上官艳秋,陈安,倪慧荟.突发事件应急管理中的“可挽救性”度量评价模型研究[J].中国软科学,2009(9):165-173.SHANGGUAN Yan-qiu,CHEN An,NI Hui-hui.Research on the assessment model for salvability in emergency manage-ment[J].China Soft Science,2009(9):165-173.
[16]尹之潜.地震灾害及损失预测方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1995:28-36.YIN Zhi-qian.Earthquake Disaster and Loss Prediction Methods[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1995:28-36.
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