甘肃模拟水位资料处理方法研究及映震效能评估
详细信息 本馆镜像全文    |  推荐本文 | | 获取馆网全文
摘要
利用从属函数、变差率和趋势速率方法提取甘肃模拟水位观测资料的地震前兆异常。结果表明:(1)1987年1月至2011年9月,4项水位资料共出现31次从属函数异常、29次变差率异常和23次趋势速率异常。其中,22次从属函数异常、21次变差率异常和14次趋势速率异常很好地对应了甘肃及邻区MS5.0以上地震。通过分析异常特征及其与地震的关系,提出中强地震时间预测的指标与方法,得出甘肃模拟水位从属函数计算的经验常数以及变差率和趋势速率的异常阈值;(2)用从属函数、变差率和趋势速率方法定量提取异常结果较为理想,通过对异常识别方法的效能评价,得到的R值均大于R0值,表明该方法信度至少为97.5%,说明3种方法具有实效性。
Using the methods of subordinate function,variation rate and trend rate,we extracted the earthquakes precursory anomalies from observation data of analogue water level in Gansu Province. The result indicated that:(1)4 items of water level data included 31 subordinate function anomalies,29 variation rate anomalies and 23 trend rate anomalies from Jan.,1987 to Sep.,2011. Among them,22 subordinate function anomalies,21 variation rate anomalies and 14 trend rate anomalies corresponded with the MS>5 earthquakes that ever occurred in Gansu Province and its adjacent region. By the analysis of the features of these anomalies and their relation to the earthquakes,the method of time prediction for the moderate-strong and strong earthquakes were proposed,and the empirical constant,anomaly threshold value of variation rate and trend rate were obtained from subordinate function of analogue water level in Gansu Province. (2)Using the methods of subordinate function,variation rate and trend rate,abnormal result which was quantitatively extracted was better. R value was greater than R0 value obtained by the effectiveness evaluation of abnormal identification method. The results showed that confidence level of this method is at least 97.5%,which indicated these three methods are effectiveness.
引文
范雪芳,刘耀炜,吴桂娥,等.2010.华北地区水位、水位中期异常特征研究[J].地震研究,33(2):147-158.
    耿杰,任桂香,王忠民,等.2001.山东数字化水位观测资料与模拟观测资料的对比分析[J].地震地质,23(3):455-463.
    解晓静.2010.琼海加积井水位模拟观测与数字观测资料对比分析[J].地震地磁观测与研究,31(3):83-87.
    唐九安,白亚平,杨淑英,等.1993.甘06井水位潮汐参数的震前中期异常[J].地震,13(6):21-28.
    唐九安,常千军,白亚平,等.1995.甘18井水位观测结果与景泰地震[J].地震地磁观测与研究,16(3):56-61.
    吴敏,赵爱平.2002.南昌地震台数字水位与模拟水位观测对比研究[J].华南地震,22(4):70-73.
    杨玲英,毛先进.2011.云南部分水位观测点模拟与数字化并行观测资料对比分析[J].地震研究,34(3):291-295.
    杨兴悦,王燕,缑亚江,等.2011.甘肃东南部水氡中期异常特征研究[J].地震研究,31(1):8-18.
    杨兴悦,王燕,闫万生,等.2006.武山22号井水位中期异常与地震关系的探讨[J].西北地震学报,28(4):378-380.
    张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰,等.2001.地震预报引论[M].北京:科学出版社.
    张新基,赵仪全,刘耀炜,等.2005.甘肃省地震监测志[M].甘肃:兰州大学出版社.
    朱成英,高小其.2011.新20号井水位异常特征分析[J].内陆地震,25(2):158165.

版权所有:© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心