甘肃氡突变型变化成因及其预报效能分析
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摘要
氡的突变型变化是地震短临预报的主要依据。通过对甘肃省17个氡测点的突变型变化进行分析,发现引起氡突变的成因有干扰因素(温度、降雨、流量、观测仪器以及人为因素等)和地震。除5个测点干扰因素引起的氡突变比例比较高(≥50%)外,其它测点的成因大部分不明确。除连城水氡点外其它单个测点对应地震事件不明显。分区多井成组突变分析结果显示甘东南地区突变点成组项次达到5项并逐月增加可能会发生地震,而祁连山地区并没有此特征。
The quick-change in observing values of radon is a main base for short-impending earthquake prediction.Through analysis on the quick-changes of radon from 17 stations in Gansu province,it is found that the genesises of quick-change of radon are mainly disturb factors such as temperature,rainfall,water flow,apparatus et al.and earthquake.At 5 stations,most of radon quick-changes(≥50%) caused by disturb factors,and at other 12 stations most genesises are unacquainted.Except the Liancheng station,the quick-changes of radon have not obvious relationship with earthquake events at single station.But analysis on the group chick-changes in divided two regions shows that earthquake will maybe occur after the number of quick-change points being 5 in a month and increasing gradually in southeastern Gansu province.For Qilian mountain region,there was not this character.
The quick-change in observing values of radon is a main base for short-impending earthquake prediction.Through analysis on the quick-changes of radon from 17 stations in Gansu province,it is found that the genesises of quick-change of radon are mainly disturb factors such as temperature,rainfall,water flow,apparatus et al.and earthquake.At 5 stations,most of radon quick-changes(≥50%) caused by disturb factors,and at other 12 stations most genesises are unacquainted.Except the Liancheng station,the quick-changes of radon have not obvious relationship with earthquake events at single station.But analysis on the group chick-changes in divided two regions shows that earthquake will maybe occur after the number of quick-change points being 5 in a month and increasing gradually in southeastern Gansu province.For Qilian mountain region,there was not this character.
引文
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[2]刘耀炜.水氡非随机干扰定量排除[J].地震学报,1989,11(4):411-422.
[3]王长岭,张慧,张世琴,等.不同深度断层气氡、汞等的稳定性研究及其潮汐波分量[J].地震学报,1994,16(增刊):118-124.
[4]王志高.深井水氡主要干扰因素及映震效能分析[J].西北地震学报,2002,24(3),251-257.
[5]高立新,车用太,纪建国,等.抽水对地下水位、汞、氡的影响[J].西北地震学报,2006,28(2),144-148.
[6]姚玉霞,王建荣,田继孝.甘肃礼县盐关井水位短临异常与滇北强震的关系[J].西北地震学报,2007,29(2):197-199.
[7]汪万红,张慧,苏鹤军.秦岭北缘断裂带温泉水循环深度与地震活动性的关系研究[J].西北地震学报,2008,30(1):36-42.
[8]王永义,王专翠.胡以高.降雨入渗补给规律分析[J].地下水,1998,20(2),74-75.
[9]赵小茂,黄辅琼,王新,等.“集中降雨”与浅层承压井水位及区域地震活动关系的初步研究[J].西北地震学报,2009,31(3),259-264.
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