中国的海啸灾害危险性及海啸预警系统——解读2011年太平洋海啸演习
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摘要
新世纪以来频发的海啸灾害引起了国际社会的广泛关注,各滨海国家不仅加大了在海啸预警建设和海啸灾害危险性、海啸基础理论研究方面的投入,更进一步加强了国际社会在应对海啸灾害方面交流与合作。为测试太平洋各国海啸预警系统的有效性以及政府职能部门的应急管理能力,切实提高各国区域和局地海啸的应对水平,促进国家和地区间海啸预警的交流与合作,联合国教科文组织政府间海洋学委员会(IOC/UNESCO)决定2011年11月9—10日,在整个太平洋地区举行一次代号为"Exercise Pacific Wave 11"的海啸演习。此次演习恰逢日本"3.11"大地震海啸发生后的8个月,通过本次演习对督促太平洋各国进一步检验本国的海啸预警系统、评估本国的海啸危险性均有着重要的意义。中国作为IOC和太平洋海啸预警系统的成员国,积极组织实施了我国历史上第一次涉及当地人员疏散的海啸演习。本文将在本次演习所涉及的海啸源评估、海啸数值计算的基础上,应用新的海啸灾害分级标准对我国沿海的海啸危险性和海啸预警系统进行重新评估分析,期望本文的研究将为今后的海啸预警及海啸灾害评估工作提供科学的决策依据标准。
Frequent tsunami disasters have already given rise to extensive attentions of international society since the new century.The coastal countries not only increased investment in the construction of tsunami early warning,tsunami hazard and tsunami foundation theory research,but also further promoted international exchanges and cooperation in response to the tsunami disasters.Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission(IOC)of UNESCO hold a Pacific-wide tsunami warning and communication exercise on 9 and 10 November 2011,which was code-name 'Exercise Pacific Wave 11'.The purpose of the exercise were mainly to test tsunami early warning system validity of Pacific Country Tsunami Warning Focal Points,to improve the level of response to regional and local tsunamis effectively and promote exchanges and cooperation among national tsunami early warning center.The exercise is held just after eight months of Japan tsunami on 11th March 2011.The exercise has significance for urging Pacific countries to test tsunami warning system and assessing the tsunami risk.As a member of the IOC and the Pacific tsunami warning system,China organized and implemented the first time of tsunami evacuation drills.The aim of this paper is to re-analyze China's tsunami hazard and reappraise China's tsunami early warning system based on 'Exercise Pacific Wave 11' tsunami sources and numerical calculation for regional and local tsunami sources.This study will service as decision basis for tsunami disasters prevention and mitigation.
Frequent tsunami disasters have already given rise to extensive attentions of international society since the new century.The coastal countries not only increased investment in the construction of tsunami early warning,tsunami hazard and tsunami foundation theory research,but also further promoted international exchanges and cooperation in response to the tsunami disasters.Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission(IOC)of UNESCO hold a Pacific-wide tsunami warning and communication exercise on 9 and 10 November 2011,which was code-name 'Exercise Pacific Wave 11'.The purpose of the exercise were mainly to test tsunami early warning system validity of Pacific Country Tsunami Warning Focal Points,to improve the level of response to regional and local tsunamis effectively and promote exchanges and cooperation among national tsunami early warning center.The exercise is held just after eight months of Japan tsunami on 11th March 2011.The exercise has significance for urging Pacific countries to test tsunami warning system and assessing the tsunami risk.As a member of the IOC and the Pacific tsunami warning system,China organized and implemented the first time of tsunami evacuation drills.The aim of this paper is to re-analyze China's tsunami hazard and reappraise China's tsunami early warning system based on 'Exercise Pacific Wave 11' tsunami sources and numerical calculation for regional and local tsunami sources.This study will service as decision basis for tsunami disasters prevention and mitigation.
引文
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[13]Wang X M,Liu P L F.An analysis of 2004 sumatra earthquakefault plane mechanisms and indian ocean tsunami[J].J Hydrau-lic Res,2006,44(2):147-154.
[14]Wang X M,Liu P L F.Numerical simulations of the 2004 indianocean tsunamis coastal effects[J].Journal of Earthquake andTsunami,2007,1(3):273-297.
[15]Liu L F,Cho Y S,Yoon S B,et al.Numerical simulations of the1960 Chilean tsunami propagation and inundation at Hilo,Ha-waii[C].∥In Tsunami Progress in Prediction,Disaster Preven-tion and Warning,edited by Y.Tsuchiya and N.Shut o,KluwerAcademic Publishers,Netherlands,1995:99-15.
[16]陈颙,陈棋福,张尉.中国的海啸灾害[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(2):1-6.
[17]郭彩玲,王晓峰.中国东部海域发生海啸的可能性分析[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(1):7-11.
[18]潘文亮,王盛安,蔡树群.南海潜在海啸灾害的数值模拟[J].热带海洋学报,2009,28(6):7-14.
[19]李伟,朱元清,王本龙,等.海啸在冲绳海槽和东海浅水大陆架地形上产生和传播的数值模拟[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2007,28(5):138-142.
[20]Liu Y C,Santo S A,Wang S M,et al.Tsunami hazards along Chi-nese coast from potential earthquakes in South China Sea.Physicsof the earth and planetary interiors[J].2007,163(1-4):233-244.
[2]Rhodes B,Tuttle M,Horton B,et al.Paleotsunami research[J].EOS Trans AGU,2006,87(21):205-209.
[3]陈运泰,杨智娴,许力生.海啸、地震海啸与海啸地震[J].物理,2005,34(12):864-872.
[4]Hayir A.The effects of variable speeds of a submarine blockslide on near-field tsunami amplitudes[J].Ocean Engineering,2003,30:2329-2342.
[5]刘桦,赵曦,王本龙.海啸预警与海岸带减灾研究进展[A].第二十一届全国水动力学研讨会暨第八届全国水动力学学术会议暨两岸船舶与海洋工程水动力学研讨会文集,成都[C],2008:41-47.
[6]UNESCO/IOC.Exercise Manual of exercise pacific wave 11,In-tergovernmental Oceanographic Commission Technical SeriesNo 97,Paris[K].UNESCO,2011.
[7]UNESCO/IOC.OPERATIONAL USERS GUIDE FOR THE PA-CIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM(PTWS),Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission Techni-cal Series No 87,Paris[K],UNESCO,2011.
[8]于福江,王培涛,赵联大,等.2010年智利地震海啸数值模拟及其对我国沿海的影响分析[J].地球物理学报,2011,54(4):918-925.
[9]王培涛,于福江,赵联大,等.2011年3月11日日本地震海啸越洋传播及对中国影响的数值分析[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(9):3088-3096.
[10]王培涛,于福江,赵联大,等.越洋海啸数值模拟及其对我国沿海的影响分析[J].海洋学报,2012,34(2):39-47.
[11]王培涛,赵联大,于福江,等.海啸灾害数值预报技术研究现状[J].海洋预报,2011,28(3):74-79.
[12]Wang X M.USER MANUAL FOR COMCOT VERSION 1.7[K].Cornell University,2009.
[13]Wang X M,Liu P L F.An analysis of 2004 sumatra earthquakefault plane mechanisms and indian ocean tsunami[J].J Hydrau-lic Res,2006,44(2):147-154.
[14]Wang X M,Liu P L F.Numerical simulations of the 2004 indianocean tsunamis coastal effects[J].Journal of Earthquake andTsunami,2007,1(3):273-297.
[15]Liu L F,Cho Y S,Yoon S B,et al.Numerical simulations of the1960 Chilean tsunami propagation and inundation at Hilo,Ha-waii[C].∥In Tsunami Progress in Prediction,Disaster Preven-tion and Warning,edited by Y.Tsuchiya and N.Shut o,KluwerAcademic Publishers,Netherlands,1995:99-15.
[16]陈颙,陈棋福,张尉.中国的海啸灾害[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(2):1-6.
[17]郭彩玲,王晓峰.中国东部海域发生海啸的可能性分析[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(1):7-11.
[18]潘文亮,王盛安,蔡树群.南海潜在海啸灾害的数值模拟[J].热带海洋学报,2009,28(6):7-14.
[19]李伟,朱元清,王本龙,等.海啸在冲绳海槽和东海浅水大陆架地形上产生和传播的数值模拟[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2007,28(5):138-142.
[20]Liu Y C,Santo S A,Wang S M,et al.Tsunami hazards along Chi-nese coast from potential earthquakes in South China Sea.Physicsof the earth and planetary interiors[J].2007,163(1-4):233-244.
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