基于海啸浮标数据反演的海啸数值预报方法的初步研究
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摘要
介绍了应用于我国第二代海啸预警系统的基于海啸浮标数据反演的准实时海啸预警方法,并对其做了一些初步的实验和讨论。结果显示对反演结果有较大影响的因素是所选浮标的位置,当浮标与地震源之间的海底地形较平坦时有利于反演,因为平坦的地形可以最大限度的减小非线性作用和底摩擦作用。浮标数据长度及单位源范围的选择对反演结果不会产生很明显的影响,在海啸预警过程中,浮标数据包含海啸波第一波的信息即可,单位源范围尽可能包括所有震源区域即可。
Based on the data inversion of buoy observations,the near real-time tsunami warning method,which has been applied to the second generation of tsunami warning system in the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center(NMEFC),is introduced in this paper.Sensitive studies are also made to identify key factors to the performance of the system.It is shown that the choice of different buoys will largely affect the accuracy of the data inversion.Due to reduced non-linear effect and bottom friction,flat seafloor topography between buoy and earthquake source favors to reach the high data inversion accuracy.In contrast,neither the temporal length of buoy observations nor the range of earthquake unit is sensitive to the inversion accuracy.In the practice of tsunami warning,the system works reasonably well as long as buoy observations capture the first tsunami wave,or earthquake unit covers the earthquake source.
Based on the data inversion of buoy observations,the near real-time tsunami warning method,which has been applied to the second generation of tsunami warning system in the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center(NMEFC),is introduced in this paper.Sensitive studies are also made to identify key factors to the performance of the system.It is shown that the choice of different buoys will largely affect the accuracy of the data inversion.Due to reduced non-linear effect and bottom friction,flat seafloor topography between buoy and earthquake source favors to reach the high data inversion accuracy.In contrast,neither the temporal length of buoy observations nor the range of earthquake unit is sensitive to the inversion accuracy.In the practice of tsunami warning,the system works reasonably well as long as buoy observations capture the first tsunami wave,or earthquake unit covers the earthquake source.
引文
[1]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_Ocean_Tsunami.
[2]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Tohoku_earthquake_and_tsuna-mi.
[3]刘瑞丰,梁建宏,任枭,等.国际海啸预警系统(ITWS)[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2005,26(1):3-7.
[4]于福江,吴玮,赵联大.基于数值预报技术的日本新一代海啸预警系统[J].国际地震动态,2005,313(1):19-22.
[5]王培涛,赵联大,于福江,等.海啸灾害数值预报技术研究现状[J].海洋预报,2011,28(3):74-79.
[6]Percival D B,Arcas D,Denbo D W,et al.Extracting TsunamiSource Parameters Via Inversion of DART Buoy Data[M].Seat-tle:United States Department of Commerce,National Oceanicand Atmospheric Administration,Office of Oceanic and Atmo-spheric Research,Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory,2009.
[7]Chen G Y,Liu C C.Evaluating the Location of Tsunami Sensors:Methodology and Application to the Northeast Coast of Taiwan[J].Terrestrial,Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,2009,20(4):563-571.
[8]Koike N,Kawata Y,Imamura F.Far-field tsunami potential and areal-time forecast system for the Pacific using the inversion meth-od[J].Natural Hazards,2003,29(3):425-436.
[9]Wang X,Liu P.A numerical investigation of Boumerdes-Zem-mouri(Algeria)earthquake and tsunami[J].Computer Modelingin Engineering and Sciences,2005,10(2):171.
[10]Wang X,Liu P.An analysis of 2004 Sumatra earthquake faultplane mechanisms and Indian Ocean tsunami[J].Journal of Hy-draulic Research,2006,44(2):147-154.
[11]Yamazaki Y,Wei Y,Cheung K F,et al.Forecast of Tsunamisfrom the Japan–Kuril–Kamchatka Source Region[J].NaturalHazards,2006,38(3):411-435.
[12]Mofjeld H O,González F I,Bernard E N,et al.Forecasting theheights of later waves in Pacific-wide tsunamis[J].Natural Haz-ards,2000,22(1):71-89.
[13]Titov V V,Gonzalez F I,Bernard E,et al.Real-time tsunami fore-casting:Challenges and solutions[J].Natural Hazards,2005,35(1):35-41.
[14]Wang X,Liu P.Preliminary study of possible tsunami hazards inTaiwan region[J].Cornell University,2006.
[15]Okada Y.Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults ina half-space[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of Ameri-ca,1985,75(4):1135-1154.
[16]MansinhaL,SmylieD.Thedisplacementfieldsofinclinedfaults[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1971,61(5):1433-1440.
[17]温燕林,朱元清,宋治平,等.东海海域潜在地震海啸的数值模拟初步研究[J].地震学报,2008,30(5):456-463.
[18]Liu P L,Wang X,Salisbury A J.Tsunami Hazard and ForecastStudy in South China Sea[J].School of Civil&EnvironmentalEngineering,Cornell University,2007.
[19]Gica E,Spillane M C,Titov V V,et al.Development of the fore-cast propagation database for NOAA's Short-term InundationForecast for Tsunamis(SIFT)[M].Seattle:US Department ofCommerce,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research,Pacific MarineEnvironmental Laboratory,2008.
[20]Wei Y,Cheung K F,Curtis G D,et al.Inverse algorithm for tsu-nami forecasts[J].Journal of waterway,port,coastal,and oceanengineering,2003,129(2):60-69.
[2]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Tohoku_earthquake_and_tsuna-mi.
[3]刘瑞丰,梁建宏,任枭,等.国际海啸预警系统(ITWS)[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2005,26(1):3-7.
[4]于福江,吴玮,赵联大.基于数值预报技术的日本新一代海啸预警系统[J].国际地震动态,2005,313(1):19-22.
[5]王培涛,赵联大,于福江,等.海啸灾害数值预报技术研究现状[J].海洋预报,2011,28(3):74-79.
[6]Percival D B,Arcas D,Denbo D W,et al.Extracting TsunamiSource Parameters Via Inversion of DART Buoy Data[M].Seat-tle:United States Department of Commerce,National Oceanicand Atmospheric Administration,Office of Oceanic and Atmo-spheric Research,Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory,2009.
[7]Chen G Y,Liu C C.Evaluating the Location of Tsunami Sensors:Methodology and Application to the Northeast Coast of Taiwan[J].Terrestrial,Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,2009,20(4):563-571.
[8]Koike N,Kawata Y,Imamura F.Far-field tsunami potential and areal-time forecast system for the Pacific using the inversion meth-od[J].Natural Hazards,2003,29(3):425-436.
[9]Wang X,Liu P.A numerical investigation of Boumerdes-Zem-mouri(Algeria)earthquake and tsunami[J].Computer Modelingin Engineering and Sciences,2005,10(2):171.
[10]Wang X,Liu P.An analysis of 2004 Sumatra earthquake faultplane mechanisms and Indian Ocean tsunami[J].Journal of Hy-draulic Research,2006,44(2):147-154.
[11]Yamazaki Y,Wei Y,Cheung K F,et al.Forecast of Tsunamisfrom the Japan–Kuril–Kamchatka Source Region[J].NaturalHazards,2006,38(3):411-435.
[12]Mofjeld H O,González F I,Bernard E N,et al.Forecasting theheights of later waves in Pacific-wide tsunamis[J].Natural Haz-ards,2000,22(1):71-89.
[13]Titov V V,Gonzalez F I,Bernard E,et al.Real-time tsunami fore-casting:Challenges and solutions[J].Natural Hazards,2005,35(1):35-41.
[14]Wang X,Liu P.Preliminary study of possible tsunami hazards inTaiwan region[J].Cornell University,2006.
[15]Okada Y.Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults ina half-space[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of Ameri-ca,1985,75(4):1135-1154.
[16]MansinhaL,SmylieD.Thedisplacementfieldsofinclinedfaults[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1971,61(5):1433-1440.
[17]温燕林,朱元清,宋治平,等.东海海域潜在地震海啸的数值模拟初步研究[J].地震学报,2008,30(5):456-463.
[18]Liu P L,Wang X,Salisbury A J.Tsunami Hazard and ForecastStudy in South China Sea[J].School of Civil&EnvironmentalEngineering,Cornell University,2007.
[19]Gica E,Spillane M C,Titov V V,et al.Development of the fore-cast propagation database for NOAA's Short-term InundationForecast for Tsunamis(SIFT)[M].Seattle:US Department ofCommerce,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research,Pacific MarineEnvironmental Laboratory,2008.
[20]Wei Y,Cheung K F,Curtis G D,et al.Inverse algorithm for tsu-nami forecasts[J].Journal of waterway,port,coastal,and oceanengineering,2003,129(2):60-69.
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