都汶公路沿线泥石流危险性评价
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摘要
汶川地震诱发的次生泥石流灾害,已成为灾区防灾减灾工作的突出问题和灾后恢复重建的重要制约因素之一,泥石流危险性评价是泥石流灾害风险管理的核心基础技术。以都汶公路沿线的31条泥石流沟为研究对象,通过野外考察、遥感图像的解译、查阅相关文献资料等手段获取研究区泥石流沟的基础数据,通过选取地质、地形、气象、水文指标,并利用主成分分析法对关键因子进行筛选和灰色系统模型进行权重的确定,建立泥石流危险性评价模型,计算得到每条沟的泥石流危险度值。评价结果表明:公路沿线31条泥石流沟处于不同泥石流危险等级:极高危险占23%,高危险占35%,中度危险占13%,轻度危险占29%;其中红椿沟、肖家沟、烧房沟等沟属于泥石流极高危险沟道,高家沟、牛圈沟等属于高度危险沟道,公路选线须采取避让或充分的防治对策。
The secondary disasters of debris flow induced by Wenchuan earthquake,has been a top problem and one of important restrict factors of recovery and reconstruction after the earthquake,debris flow hazard assessment is a foundation and core technology of debris flow risk management.In this paper,31 debris-flow gullies along Dujiangyan-Wenchuan Highway(abbreviated to Du-Wen Highway) were taken as research objects.Based on the field investigation,remote sensing image interpretation,consult the corresponding literature data and other means to take basic data of debris flow gully in this study area,by choosing geology,topography,climate,hydrology factors and using the principal component analysis method to screen the key factors and grey correlation analysis method to determine the weighing values,established the debris risk assessment model,got risk value of every valley through the calculation.The assessment results show that:31 debris flow gully along Du-Wen highway are most at risk,among them extremely high level of risk occupies 23%,high risk 35%,moderate risk 13%,slightly dangerous accounted for 29%;and Hongchun gully,Xiaojia gully and Shaofang gully belong to the extremely high risk gully,Niujuan and Gaojia gully belong to high risk,so the full countermeasures must be taken in traffic line designing.
The secondary disasters of debris flow induced by Wenchuan earthquake,has been a top problem and one of important restrict factors of recovery and reconstruction after the earthquake,debris flow hazard assessment is a foundation and core technology of debris flow risk management.In this paper,31 debris-flow gullies along Dujiangyan-Wenchuan Highway(abbreviated to Du-Wen Highway) were taken as research objects.Based on the field investigation,remote sensing image interpretation,consult the corresponding literature data and other means to take basic data of debris flow gully in this study area,by choosing geology,topography,climate,hydrology factors and using the principal component analysis method to screen the key factors and grey correlation analysis method to determine the weighing values,established the debris risk assessment model,got risk value of every valley through the calculation.The assessment results show that:31 debris flow gully along Du-Wen highway are most at risk,among them extremely high level of risk occupies 23%,high risk 35%,moderate risk 13%,slightly dangerous accounted for 29%;and Hongchun gully,Xiaojia gully and Shaofang gully belong to the extremely high risk gully,Niujuan and Gaojia gully belong to high risk,so the full countermeasures must be taken in traffic line designing.
引文
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[13]Yongshun Han.Theory and key technologies of debris flow disastersrisk management[D].Chengdu:Institute of Mountain Hazards andEnvironment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,2008[韩用顺.泥石流灾害风险管理理论与关键技术[D].成都:中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所,2008]
[14]Zou Xiang,Gui Peng,Wei Fangqiang,et al.Application of Grey-correiation Method to activity evaluation of debris flow[J].JournalofMountain,2003,21(3):360-364[邹翔,崔鹏,韦方强,等.灰色关联度法在泥石流活动性评价中的应用[J]山地学报,2003,21(3):360-364]
[15]Mei Yan.5.12 Earthquake in Beichuan County,Sichuan Provincearea debris flow hazard assessment[D].Chengdu:Chengdu Uni-versity of Technology,2011[梅岩.四川省北川县5.12强震区泥石流危险性评价[D].成都:成都理工大学,2011]
[2]Yongshun Han,Hongjiang Liu.Hazard assessment on secondarymountain hazards triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake[J].Jour-nal of Applied Remote Sensing,2009,(16):45-60
[3]Wang Xiaopeng,Pan Mao,Ren Qunzhi.Hazard assessment of debrisflow based on geomorphic information entropy in catchment[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2006,1(3):2211-215[王晓朋,潘懋,任群智.基于流域系统地貌信息熵的泥石流危险性定量评价[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2006,1(3):221-215]
[4]Liu Xilin.Study on the judge of debris flow dangerous degree[J]Journal of Catastrophology,1988,3(3):10-15[刘希林.泥石流危险度判定的研究[J].灾害学,1988,3(3):10-15]
[5]Wei Yongming,Xie Youyu,Wu Yongqiu.Applications of Relativityanalysis method and Fuzzy Synthetical assessment Method in classifi-cation of dangerous degree of debris flow[J].Journal of NaaturalDisasters,1998,7(2):109-117[魏永明,谢又予,伍永秋.关联度分析法和模糊综合评判法在泥石流沟谷危险度划分中的应用——以北京市北部山区怀柔、密云两县为例[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(2):109-117]
[6]Gao Kechang.Probability forecast of regional landslide based onweather forecast[J].Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sci-ences,2006,11(4):853-858
[7]Tie Yongbo,Tang Chuan.Application of AHP in single debris flowrisk assessment[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard andControl,2006,17(4):79-84[铁水波,唐川.层次分析法在单沟泥石流危险度评价中的应用[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2006,17(4):79-84]
[8]Zhuang Jianqi,Cui Peng,Ge Yonggang,et al.Hazard assessment ofdebris flow valleys along Dujiangyan-Wenchuan Highway after“5.12”Wenchuan devastating earthquake[J].Journal of Sichuan U-niversity:Engineering Science Edition,2009,41(03):131-139[庄建琦,崔鹏,葛永刚,等.“5.12”地震后都汶公路沿线泥石流沟危险性评价[J]四川大学学报:工程科学版,2009,41(03):131-139]
[9]Wang Yuejuan.Hazard assessment on rainstorm induced debrisflows in Beichuan County of Wenchuan earthquake affected area[D].Chengdu:Chengdu University of Technology,2009[汪月鹃〗.汶川震区北川县暴雨泥石流危险性评价[D].成都:成都理工大学,2009]
[10]Geological Investigation and Surveying Institute of Guanghan,Si-chuan.Geological investigation and surveying and regionalizationof Wenchuan country,Aba Zang&Qiang Autonomic State,SichuanProvince[R].2005[四川省广汉地质工程勘察院.四川省阿坝藏族羌族自治州汶川县地质灾害调查与区划报告[R].2005]
[11]Han Yong-shun,Cui Peng,Zhu Ying-yan,et al.Remote SensingMonitoring and assessment of traffical damage by Wenchuan Earth-quake——a case study in Du-Wen Highway[J]Journal of Si-chuan University:Engineering Science Edition,2009,(03):273-283[韩用顺,崔鹏,朱颖彦,等.汶川地震危害道路交通及其遥感监测评估——以都汶公路为例[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2009,(03):273-283]
[12]Zhong Dunlun,Xie Hong,Wei Fangqiang,et al.The regionalizationof debris flow danger degeree in the upper reaches of changjiangriver[M].The Science&Technology Press in Shanghai,2011:23[钟敦伦,谢洪,韦方强,等.长江上游泥石流综合危险度区划[M].上海科学技术出版社,2010:23]
[13]Yongshun Han.Theory and key technologies of debris flow disastersrisk management[D].Chengdu:Institute of Mountain Hazards andEnvironment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,2008[韩用顺.泥石流灾害风险管理理论与关键技术[D].成都:中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所,2008]
[14]Zou Xiang,Gui Peng,Wei Fangqiang,et al.Application of Grey-correiation Method to activity evaluation of debris flow[J].JournalofMountain,2003,21(3):360-364[邹翔,崔鹏,韦方强,等.灰色关联度法在泥石流活动性评价中的应用[J]山地学报,2003,21(3):360-364]
[15]Mei Yan.5.12 Earthquake in Beichuan County,Sichuan Provincearea debris flow hazard assessment[D].Chengdu:Chengdu Uni-versity of Technology,2011[梅岩.四川省北川县5.12强震区泥石流危险性评价[D].成都:成都理工大学,2011]
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