松潘县地坪沟泥石流危险性分析
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摘要
松潘县地坪沟属于发展期的低频暴雨型泥石流沟,在"5.12"汶川特大地震后该流域内由于崩塌滑坡造成的松散堆积物储量增多,泥石流发生频率有增高的趋势,危险性变大。在应用层次分析法(AHP),选择泥沙补给长度比(C1)、流域面积(C2)、主沟长度(C3)、流域相对高差(C4)、主沟平均比降(C5)、流域切割密度(C6)、松散固体物质储量(C7)、主沟弯曲系数(C8)、形成区山坡平均坡度(C9)、一次泥石流最大冲出量(C10)、泥石流暴发频率(C11)、最大24h降雨量(C12)、植被覆盖率(C13)和人口密度(C14)作为评价指标的基础上,运用泥石流沟危险度评价模型计算出地坪沟泥石流危险度为52.64,属于中等偏高危险;同时,又选择刘希林1996年提出的单沟泥石流危险度评价方法进行验证,计算出地坪沟泥石流危险度为0.5563,属于中度偏高度危险,与AHP法评价结果基本吻合,同时与实际勘察结果有较好的一致性。该结果可为当地的泥石流防灾减灾以及预测预报工作提供一定的理论指导。
The Diping gully is a developmental period of low-frequency storm-type debris flow.After the"5.12" Wenchuan earthquake,landslides and other loose deposits have increased in the basin.The frequency of debris flow is becoming high.Using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),length of sediment supply ratio(C1),drainage area(C2),main channel length(C3),basin relative height(C4),average than the main channel lower(C5),basin cut density(C6),loose solid material reserves(C7),main groove bending coefficient(C8),average slope gradient-forming region(C9),maximum out of a debris flow volume(C10),debris flow frequency(C11),maximum 24h precipitation(C12),vegetation coverage(C13) and population density(C14) were chosen as evaluation indexes.The risk degree of Diping gully was calculated as 52.64 with the risk assessment model of debris flow.The risk grade of Diping gully was belong to medium risk.Furthermore,it is verified with other risk assessment methods(Liu Xilin's,1996),and the result was subordinate to high risk.These two results were basically with the practice.Therefore,it can provide some theoretical guidance to debris flow prevention and prediction for the local government.
The Diping gully is a developmental period of low-frequency storm-type debris flow.After the"5.12" Wenchuan earthquake,landslides and other loose deposits have increased in the basin.The frequency of debris flow is becoming high.Using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),length of sediment supply ratio(C1),drainage area(C2),main channel length(C3),basin relative height(C4),average than the main channel lower(C5),basin cut density(C6),loose solid material reserves(C7),main groove bending coefficient(C8),average slope gradient-forming region(C9),maximum out of a debris flow volume(C10),debris flow frequency(C11),maximum 24h precipitation(C12),vegetation coverage(C13) and population density(C14) were chosen as evaluation indexes.The risk degree of Diping gully was calculated as 52.64 with the risk assessment model of debris flow.The risk grade of Diping gully was belong to medium risk.Furthermore,it is verified with other risk assessment methods(Liu Xilin's,1996),and the result was subordinate to high risk.These two results were basically with the practice.Therefore,it can provide some theoretical guidance to debris flow prevention and prediction for the local government.
引文
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[13]铁永波,唐川.汶川县城泥石流灾害风险评价研究[J].2010,25(4):43-47.
[2]唐文清,刘宇平,陈智梁.岷山隆起边界断裂构造活动初步研究[J],沉积与特提斯地质,2004,24(4):31-34.
[3]陈基汾,吕松金.四川松潘-平武地震前后的地壳垂直形变[J].地震学报,1980,2(4):356-367.
[4]李三明,张艳涛,汤江红.泥石流特征值的计算与确定-以四川省石棉县出路沟泥石流为例[J].资源环境与工程,2010,24(3):297-300,316.
[5]苏小琴,朱静,沈娜.四川省泸定县深家沟泥石流特征及危险度评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2008,19(2):27-31.
[6]康志成,李焯芬,马蔼乃,等.中国泥石流研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2004.
[7]崔鹏,韦方强,谢洪,等.中国西部泥石流及其减灾对策[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(2):142-151.
[8]姚文花,姚勇,高加成.泥石流易发性评价方法研究[J].安徽农业科学,2009,37(16):7552-7554.
[9]铁永波,唐川.层次分析法在单沟泥石流危险度评价中的应用[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2006(4):79-84.
[10]王学良,李建一.基于层次分析法的泥石流危险性评价体系研究[J].中国矿业,2011(10):113-117.
[11]王晓欣,王运生,孙耀明.大渡河野坝沟泥石流危险性分析[J].水土保持研究,2008,15(6):173-176.
[12]李泳.泥石流危险性评价的问题[J].山地学报,1999,17(4):305-312.
[13]铁永波,唐川.汶川县城泥石流灾害风险评价研究[J].2010,25(4):43-47.
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