卡拉水电站田三滑坡体稳定性敏感因素分析
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摘要
为了分析卡拉水电站工程区滑坡体的稳定性,以库区内田三滑坡体为例,对其滑坡成因、地形地貌、地质构造等内在因素进行分析。结果表明:滑坡体随着坡面隆起和坡内扩容加剧,在外界作用下更易失稳破坏;其层面与节理裂隙的不良组合为边坡变形失稳提供了边界;陡倾坡内的裂隙为地下水入渗创造了条件。通过对库水位升降、降雨和地震等外在因素的敏感性分析,可知库水位骤升骤降对滑坡体的稳定性影响较大;短期降雨对滑坡体稳定性影响较小,但是随着降雨时间增长滑坡体失稳概率增加;地震峰值对滑坡体稳定性影响较为明显。根据分析结果对滑坡体进行工况及荷载组合,并对各工况组合进行稳定性计算及评价,结果表明,受蓄水和暴雨影响,滑坡体的稳定性变差,在蓄水地震工况下失稳概率较大。
To study the stability of the Tiansan Landslide in the project area of the Carla Hydropower Station,the landslide causes,landform,and geological structure were analyzed.The results show that landslide instability is most likely to take place under the effects of external factors and internal factors including landslide slope uplift and intensification of slope expansion.A poor combination of planes and fissures provides boundaries for slope deformation and instability.The fissures of the steep slope provide favorable conditions for infiltration of groundwater.Through sensitivity analysis of the external factors including rainfall,water level fluctuation,and earthquakes,it was found that a sharp increase or decrease in water level has a significant effect on the landslide stability.Short-term rainfall affects the landslide stability insignificantly,and the instability probability will increase with the increase of time duration of rainfall.The earthquake peak affects the landslide stability.According to the analysis,combinations of landslide conditions and loads were made,and the stability calculation and assessment were conducted.The results show that the instability probability was higher under water storage and seismic conditions,resulting from a low stability of the landslide affected by water storage and rainstorms.
To study the stability of the Tiansan Landslide in the project area of the Carla Hydropower Station,the landslide causes,landform,and geological structure were analyzed.The results show that landslide instability is most likely to take place under the effects of external factors and internal factors including landslide slope uplift and intensification of slope expansion.A poor combination of planes and fissures provides boundaries for slope deformation and instability.The fissures of the steep slope provide favorable conditions for infiltration of groundwater.Through sensitivity analysis of the external factors including rainfall,water level fluctuation,and earthquakes,it was found that a sharp increase or decrease in water level has a significant effect on the landslide stability.Short-term rainfall affects the landslide stability insignificantly,and the instability probability will increase with the increase of time duration of rainfall.The earthquake peak affects the landslide stability.According to the analysis,combinations of landslide conditions and loads were made,and the stability calculation and assessment were conducted.The results show that the instability probability was higher under water storage and seismic conditions,resulting from a low stability of the landslide affected by water storage and rainstorms.
引文
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[2]吉锋,钟湖平.雅砻江中游某特大型滑坡,基本特征及稳定性初步分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2010,8(5):92-94.(JIFeng,ZHONG Huping.Characteristics and stability of a large landslide in the Yalong river[J].South-to-North WaterTransfers andWaterScience&Technology,2010,8(5):92-94.(in Chinese))
[3]邓建辉,陈菲.泸定县四湾村滑坡的地质成因与稳定评价[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(10):1945-1950.(DENGJianhui,CHEN Fei.Geological origin and stability evaluation of siwancun landslide in luding county[J].Chinese Journal of RockMechanics and Engineering,2007,26(10):1945-1950.(in Chinese))
[4]谢飞鸿,王锦山,尹伯悦.成南高速公路滑坡稳定性分析及治理[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(增刊2):5795-5798.(XIE Feihong,WANG Jinshan,YIN Boyue.Landslide analysis andtreatment in the area of cheng-nan expressway[J].Chinese Journal ofRock Mechanics and Engineering,2005,24(Sup2):5795-5798.(in Chinese))
[5]李红英,谭跃虎,赵辉.卡拉水电站上田滑坡体稳定性分析及评价研究[J].地质与勘探,2012,48(2):359-365.(LIHongying,TAN Yuehu,ZHAO Hui.Stability analysis and assessment research of Shang tian landslide ofKala Hydropower[J].Geologyand Prospecting,2012,48(2):359-365.(in Chinese))
[6]祝玉学.边坡可靠性分析[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,1993.
[7]陈祖煜.土质边坡稳定分析:原理方法程序[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2003.
[8]张广文,刘令瑶.确定随机变量概率分布的推广Bayes法[J].岩土工程学报,1995,17(3):91-94.(ZHANG Guangwen,LIULingyao.The improving Bayes method to determine probability distribution of random variable[J].Journal ofGeotechnical Engineering,1995,17(3):91-94(in Chinese))
[9]徐军,雷用,郑颖人.岩土参数概率分布推断的模糊Bayes方法探讨[J].岩土力学,2000,21(4):394-396.(XU Jun,LEI Yong,ZHENG Yingren.The research of Probability distribution and Bayes method on geotechnical parameter[J].Rock and soil Mechanics,2000,21(4):394-396.(in Chinese))
[10]李夕兵,宫凤强.岩土力学参数概率分布的推断方法研究综述[J].长沙理工大学学报:自然科学版,2007,4(1):1-8.(LIXibing,GONG Fengqiang.A research review of the method to deduce the probability distribution of geotechnical mechanics parameters[J].Journal of Changsha University of Science and Technology:Natural Science,2007,4(1):1-8.(in Chinese))
[11]盛骤,谢式千,潘承毅,等.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1989.
[12]赵国藩,金伟量.结构可靠度理论[M].北京:中国建筑工业出社,2000.
[13]袁景,张秀丽.基于Monte-Carlo方法的边坡可靠性分析[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2005,24(增刊):10-12.(YUAN Jing,ZHANG Xiuli.Slope reliability analysis based on the monte-carlo method[J].Liaoning Engineering Technology University Journals,2005,24(Sup):10-12.(in Chinese))
[14]赵辉,谭跃虎,徐辉,等.雅砻江上田边坡可靠性蒙特卡洛方法综合运用[J].地下空间与工程学报,2010,6(5):938-945.(ZHAO Hui,TAN Yuehu,XU Hui,et al.Application of Monte-Carlo method to Shangtian landslide’s reliability analysis.[J].ChineseJournal ofUnderground Space and Engineering,2010,6(5):938-945.(in Chinese))
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