震时中学应急疏散模型建立的探究
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摘要
如何有效预防和减少地震及其他突发事件导致的人员伤亡,已成为国内外公共安全工作和研究的重中之重。本文从汶川地震中中学生的伤亡情况、人员疏散状态和疏散时间密切相关的特点出发,阐述了建立中学校园疏散时间模型的必要性。以中学生在面对地震等灾害情况时的心理和行为规律的研究为基础,探究了采用回归分析法建立应急疏散时间与各影响因素之间的回归模型的想法,并且建立人员应急疏散运动时间预测模型的可行性方法。
The question how to effectively prevent and reduce injury and death caused by a destructive earthquake and other emergencies has become one of the most important issues in terms of public security.Basing on the fact that the injury and death situation in middle schools in the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake has a close connection with the evacuation status and time of rescuing,the writer of this paper sets forth the necessity of constructing an evacuation time model on campus.Moreover,on the foundation of the research on the psychology and behavior regularity among middle school students who face emergencies situation like earthquake,this paper also offers a practical method to set up such a model by adopting the regression analysis between emergency evacuation time and other influential factors.
The question how to effectively prevent and reduce injury and death caused by a destructive earthquake and other emergencies has become one of the most important issues in terms of public security.Basing on the fact that the injury and death situation in middle schools in the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake has a close connection with the evacuation status and time of rescuing,the writer of this paper sets forth the necessity of constructing an evacuation time model on campus.Moreover,on the foundation of the research on the psychology and behavior regularity among middle school students who face emergencies situation like earthquake,this paper also offers a practical method to set up such a model by adopting the regression analysis between emergency evacuation time and other influential factors.
引文
[1]李铁强.地震灾害设防标准、安全评价与突发事件应急预案编制及演习操作流程实用手册[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2007.
[2]袁理明,范维澄.建筑火灾中人员安全疏散时间预测[J].自然灾害学报,1997,6(2).
[3]宋卫国,于彦飞,陈涛.出口条件对人员疏散的影响及其分析[J].火灾科学,2003,(4).
[4]王振,刘茂.人群疏散的动力学特征及疏散通道堵塞的恢复[J].自然科学进展,2008,(2).
[5]Vassalos G C.Critical review of data available as input to evacuation simulation tools.M C A Research Project 490,March2004,16-18.
[6]Irvine.Synthetic Humans in Emergency Response Drills.Donald Bren School of Information and Computer Science,University ofCalifornia,CA92697,USA2006.
[7]简敏.校园危机与学生应急能力培养[J].教学与管理,2005.
[8]琳达.B.鲍克(Linda B.Bourque),伊夫.P.菲尔德(Eve P.Fielder)(美).自填式问卷调查和邮寄问卷调查[M].北京:中国劳动社会保障出版社,2004.
[9]徐敏,李慧洋,孙向红,傅小兰.应急疏散中不同人群的行为调查[M].北京:中科院心理所,2006.
[10]方正,卢兆明.建筑物避难疏散的网格模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2001,(8).
[11]陈智明,霍然,王浩波,曾德云.某教学楼火灾中人员安全疏散时间的预测[J].火灾科学,2003,(1).
[12]伍爱友,宋泽.大型公用建筑火灾时人员应急疏散评价模型研究[J].华北科技学院学报,2005,(9).
[2]袁理明,范维澄.建筑火灾中人员安全疏散时间预测[J].自然灾害学报,1997,6(2).
[3]宋卫国,于彦飞,陈涛.出口条件对人员疏散的影响及其分析[J].火灾科学,2003,(4).
[4]王振,刘茂.人群疏散的动力学特征及疏散通道堵塞的恢复[J].自然科学进展,2008,(2).
[5]Vassalos G C.Critical review of data available as input to evacuation simulation tools.M C A Research Project 490,March2004,16-18.
[6]Irvine.Synthetic Humans in Emergency Response Drills.Donald Bren School of Information and Computer Science,University ofCalifornia,CA92697,USA2006.
[7]简敏.校园危机与学生应急能力培养[J].教学与管理,2005.
[8]琳达.B.鲍克(Linda B.Bourque),伊夫.P.菲尔德(Eve P.Fielder)(美).自填式问卷调查和邮寄问卷调查[M].北京:中国劳动社会保障出版社,2004.
[9]徐敏,李慧洋,孙向红,傅小兰.应急疏散中不同人群的行为调查[M].北京:中科院心理所,2006.
[10]方正,卢兆明.建筑物避难疏散的网格模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2001,(8).
[11]陈智明,霍然,王浩波,曾德云.某教学楼火灾中人员安全疏散时间的预测[J].火灾科学,2003,(1).
[12]伍爱友,宋泽.大型公用建筑火灾时人员应急疏散评价模型研究[J].华北科技学院学报,2005,(9).
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