形变异常与干扰关系的再认识
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摘要
对7次巨幅形变异常事件研究后认为:1)巨幅形变事件是指与其自身本底变化幅度相比相差悬殊的形变事件,如半年至一年的变化幅度,超过前3年内最大变幅的4倍,即可将此判定为巨幅形变事件;2)形变异常与干扰共存;3)形变与干扰一般情况下难以区分和识别,但巨幅形变事件不是一般干扰单独引起的,出现巨幅形变事件,应首先考虑是否属于近区域、中短期的强震的前兆异常;4)对于强震,近区域中短期应存在超大幅度的地壳形变,监测巨幅形变异常对地震预报意义重要。
7 events of crust deformation anomaly with great magnitude are given,and,these events always were followed by strong earthquake near the abnormal area in a medium-short period.The reason why such kind of important phenomena has not drawn more attention to yet is analyzed.Furthermore some new understandings of the relationship between crust deformation anomalies and disturbances are presented,and some conclusions and suggestions are given as follows.1)As concerning crustal deformation event of great magnitude,"great magnitude" means that the event has a big difference from the varied magnitude in normal time.The index has be given here that during a half year to one year,if the varied magnitude is more than 4 times of that for 3 years before the event,the event can be looked as crustal deformation event of great magnitude.2)Crust deformation anomaly is coexistent with disturbances.3)It is difficult to distinggaish between crust deformation and disturbance in most of situation.But crustal deformation of great magnitude has special value for strong earthquake prediction,because this kind of deformation can not be induced commonly by disturbance alone.When the crustal deformation of great magnitude appears,we should look it as the precursory anomaly first for near strong earthquake in a medium-short time period.4)Before strong earthquake,crustal deformation of great magnitude should appear at some key points in the medium-short period.Monitoring such great deformation has important significance for effective prediction of strong earthquake.
7 events of crust deformation anomaly with great magnitude are given,and,these events always were followed by strong earthquake near the abnormal area in a medium-short period.The reason why such kind of important phenomena has not drawn more attention to yet is analyzed.Furthermore some new understandings of the relationship between crust deformation anomalies and disturbances are presented,and some conclusions and suggestions are given as follows.1)As concerning crustal deformation event of great magnitude,"great magnitude" means that the event has a big difference from the varied magnitude in normal time.The index has be given here that during a half year to one year,if the varied magnitude is more than 4 times of that for 3 years before the event,the event can be looked as crustal deformation event of great magnitude.2)Crust deformation anomaly is coexistent with disturbances.3)It is difficult to distinggaish between crust deformation and disturbance in most of situation.But crustal deformation of great magnitude has special value for strong earthquake prediction,because this kind of deformation can not be induced commonly by disturbance alone.When the crustal deformation of great magnitude appears,we should look it as the precursory anomaly first for near strong earthquake in a medium-short time period.4)Before strong earthquake,crustal deformation of great magnitude should appear at some key points in the medium-short period.Monitoring such great deformation has important significance for effective prediction of strong earthquake.
引文
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6李忠华,苏有锦,刘祖荫.丽江7.0级地震滇西实验场区跨断层短基线短水准测量的变化特征[J].中国地震,1998,14(2):140-149.(Li Zhonghua,Shu Yujing andLiu Zhuyin.Characters of the variation of cross fault short baseline and short range leveling in western Yunnan earth-quake test site before Lijiang earthquake(M=7.0)[J].Earthquake Reaearch in China,1998,14(2):140-149)
7薄万举,杨国华,张风霜.汶川Ms8.0地震孕震机理的形变证据与模型推演[J].地震,2009,29(1):85-91.(Bo Wanju,Yang Guohua and Zhang Fengshuang.Deform-ation evidence and the model deduction about generation mechanism of Wenchnan Ms8.0[J].Earthquake,2009,29(1):85-91)
8黄晓华,等.厦门台地震前兆分析[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2009,(5):38-42.(Huang Xiaohua,et al.Analysis of seimic precusor anomaly at Xiamen seismostation[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2009,(5):38-42)
9陆明勇.地壳形变与地下水相互作用及“双力源”前兆观点[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2006,(1):76-83.(Lu Mingyong.Mutual action between crustal defornation and un-derground water and view of seismic precursor of“double force source”[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2006,(1):76-83)
10薄万举.用非线性动力学的观点分析形变异常与干扰初探[J].地壳形变与地震,1992,12(4):44-48.(Bo Wanju.Preliminary study for abnormal deformaton by the view point of nonlinear dynamics[J].Crustal deformation and earthquake,1992,12(4):44-48)
2苏琴,朱航,杨永林.耿达短水准异常与汶川8.0级地震[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2009,(增):103-105.(Su Qing,Zhu Hang and Yang Yonglin.Short-line leveling anom-aly at Gengda and WenchuanMs8.0earthquake[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2009,(Sup.):103-105)
3薄万举,华彩虹.地形变强震前兆指标探讨[J].地震,2001,(1):25-32.(Bo Wanju and Hua Caihong.Research and discussion on strong earthquake index shown by crust deformation data[J].Earthquake,2001,(1):25-32)
4杨志荣.1987年1月24日新疆乌什6.4级地震前兆异常及其预报[J].中国地震,1987,l3(4):6-12.(Yang Zhirong.Precursor ofMs6.4earthquake on January24,1987in Xijiang Wushi and its prediction[J].Earthquake in China,1987,13(4):6-12)
5薄万举,等.地壳形变与地震预测研究[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.(Bo Wanju,et al.Researches on crust de-formation and earthquake prediction[M].Beijing:Seismo-logical Press,2001)
6李忠华,苏有锦,刘祖荫.丽江7.0级地震滇西实验场区跨断层短基线短水准测量的变化特征[J].中国地震,1998,14(2):140-149.(Li Zhonghua,Shu Yujing andLiu Zhuyin.Characters of the variation of cross fault short baseline and short range leveling in western Yunnan earth-quake test site before Lijiang earthquake(M=7.0)[J].Earthquake Reaearch in China,1998,14(2):140-149)
7薄万举,杨国华,张风霜.汶川Ms8.0地震孕震机理的形变证据与模型推演[J].地震,2009,29(1):85-91.(Bo Wanju,Yang Guohua and Zhang Fengshuang.Deform-ation evidence and the model deduction about generation mechanism of Wenchnan Ms8.0[J].Earthquake,2009,29(1):85-91)
8黄晓华,等.厦门台地震前兆分析[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2009,(5):38-42.(Huang Xiaohua,et al.Analysis of seimic precusor anomaly at Xiamen seismostation[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2009,(5):38-42)
9陆明勇.地壳形变与地下水相互作用及“双力源”前兆观点[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2006,(1):76-83.(Lu Mingyong.Mutual action between crustal defornation and un-derground water and view of seismic precursor of“double force source”[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2006,(1):76-83)
10薄万举.用非线性动力学的观点分析形变异常与干扰初探[J].地壳形变与地震,1992,12(4):44-48.(Bo Wanju.Preliminary study for abnormal deformaton by the view point of nonlinear dynamics[J].Crustal deformation and earthquake,1992,12(4):44-48)
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