中国大陆地壳运动与强震关系研究
摘要
利用GPS观测结果研究了中国大陆当前地壳运动的空间分布及其所揭示的大区域构造变形背景与趋势;讨论了区域水平运动、应变率场分布与强震地点的关系;通过对昆仑山口西Ms8.1等地震区域水平运动与形变的分析,研究了强震过程的区域形变场变化的主要特征;提出了识别孕震形变场以进行中长期强震地点预测的思路和途径。
This paper analyzes spatial distribution of current crustal movement in Chinese mainland, and large areal tectonic deformation background and trend with the GPS data. First, the relationship between distribution of areal horizontal movement and strain rate field and strong earthquake locations is discussed. Second, the principal characteristics of regional deformation field in earthquake process is studied by analyzing dynamic changes of regional deformation field and strain field of strong earthquakes(as the Ms 8.1 earthquake in the west to the Kunlun Mountains Pass). Final, the thought and approach of medium and long-term prediction of strong earthquake location by identificating the seismogenic deformation fields are presented.
This paper analyzes spatial distribution of current crustal movement in Chinese mainland, and large areal tectonic deformation background and trend with the GPS data. First, the relationship between distribution of areal horizontal movement and strain rate field and strong earthquake locations is discussed. Second, the principal characteristics of regional deformation field in earthquake process is studied by analyzing dynamic changes of regional deformation field and strain field of strong earthquakes(as the Ms 8.1 earthquake in the west to the Kunlun Mountains Pass). Final, the thought and approach of medium and long-term prediction of strong earthquake location by identificating the seismogenic deformation fields are presented.
引文
①胡新康.区域无整体旋转基准的研究与应用[A].中国地震局2005年4月在厦门GPS技术在地震预报中应用研讨会论文集[C].2005.
1 朱文耀,程宗颐,等.中国大陆地壳运动的背景场[J].科学通报,1999,44(14):1537～1540.1 ZhuWenyao,ChengZongyi,etal.BackgroundofcrustalmovementofChina[J].ChineseScienceBulletin,1999,44(14):1537-1539.(inChinese)
2 WangQi,ZhangPeizhen,JeffreyT,etal.Present day crustaldeformationinChinaconstrainedbyglobalpositio ningsystemmeasurements[J].Science,2001,294:574-577.
3 马宗晋,陈鑫连,叶叔华,等.中国大陆区现今地壳运动的GPS研究[J].科学通报,2001,46(13):1118～1120.3 MaZongjin,ChenXinlian,YeShuhua,etal.Contemporary crustalmovementofcontinentalChinaobtainedbyglobalpo sitioningsystem(GPS)measurement[J].ChineseScience Bulletin,2001,46(13):1118-1120.(inChinese)
4 杨国华,李延兴,韩月萍,等.由GPS观测结果推导中国大陆现今水平应变场[J].地震学报,2002,24(4):337～347.4 YangGuohua,LiYanxing,HanYueping,etal.Current horizontalstrainfieldinChinesemainlandderivedfromGPS data[J].ActaseismologicaSinica,200224(4):337～347.(inChinese)
5 马宗晋,张培震,任金卫,等.从GPS水平矢量场对中国及全球地壳运动的新认识[J].地球科学进展,2003,18(1):4～11.5 MaZongjin,ZhangPeizhen,RenJinwei,etal.Newcognitions ontheglobalandChinesecontinentalcrustalmovements fromGPShorizontalvectorfields[J].AdvanceinEarthSci ences.2003,18(1):4-11.(inChinese)
6 黄立人,符养,段五杏,等.由GPS观测结果推断中国大陆活动构造边界[J].地球物理学报,2003,46(5):609～615.6 HuangLiren,FuYang,DuanWuxing,etal.Activetectonic boundariesoftheChinamainlandinferredfromGPSobserva tions[J].ChineseJ.Geophys.2003,609-615.(inChi nese)
7 江在森,马宗晋,张希,等.GPS初步结果揭示的中国大陆水平应变场与构造变形[J].地球物理学报,2003,46(3):352～358.7 JiangZaisen,MaZongjin,ZhangXi,etal.Horizontal strainfieldandtectonicdeformationofChinamainlandre vealedbypreliminaryGPSresult[J].ChineseJournalof Geophysics,2003,46(3):352-358.(inChinese)
8 李延兴,杨国华,李智,等.中国大陆活动地块的运动与应变状态[J].中国科学(D辑),2003,33(Sup):65～81.8 LiYanxing,YangGuohua,LiZhi,etal.Movementand strainconditionsofactiveblocksinChinesemainland[J].ScienceinChina(SeriesD),2003,33(Supp.):61-81.(inChinese)
9 杨国华,王敏,韩月萍,等.山西地震带近期水平运动状态及活动性[J].地壳形变与地震,1999,19(4):50～55.9 YangGuohua,WangMin,HanYueping,etal.Presentcrus talhorizontalmovementandactivityofShanxifaultbeltde terminedbyGPS[J].Crustaldeformationandearthquake,1999,19(4):50-55.(inChinese)
10江在森,张希,陈兵,等.华北地区近期地壳水平运动与应力应变场特征[J].地球物理学报,2000,43(5):657～665.10JiangZaisen,ZhangXi,ChenBing,etal.CharacteristicsofrecenthorizontalmovementandstressstrainfieldinthecrustofnorthChina[J].ChineseJournalofGeophysics,2000,43(5):657-665.(inChinese)
11江在森,张希,崔笃信,等.青藏块体东北缘近期水平运动与变形[J].地球物理学报,2001,44(5):636～544.11JiangZaisen,ZhangXi,CuiDuxin,etal.RecenthorizontalmovementanddeformationinthenortheastmarginofQinghaiTibetblock[J].ChineseJournalofGeophysics,2001,44(5):636-544.(inChinese)
12江在森,张希,祝意青,等.昆仑山口西Ms8.1地震前区域构造变形背景.中国科学(D辑),2003,33(Supp):163～172.12JiangZaisen,ZhangXi,ZhuYiqing,etal.RegionaltectonicdeformationbackgroundbeforetheMs8.1earthquakeinthewestoftheKunlunMountainsPass[J].ScienceinChina(SeriesD),2003,33(Supp.):163-172.
13张强,朱文耀,熊永清.关于ITRF96参考框架整体旋转性的探讨[J].地球物理学报,2000,43(5):598～606.13ZhangQiang,ZhuWenyaoandXiongYongqing.NetrotationoftheITRF96[J].ChineseJournalofGeophysics,2000,43(5):598-606.(inChinese)
14朱文耀,符养,李彦,等.ITRF2000的无整体旋转约束及最新全球板块运动模型NNRITRF2000VEL[J].中国科学(D辑),2003,33(Supp):1～11.14ZhuWenyao,FuYang,LiYan,etal.NonetrotationconstraintonITRF2000andlatestplatemovementmodelNNR2ITRF2000VEL[J].ScienceinChina(SeriesD),2003,33(supp.):1-11.(inChinese)
15杨国华,江在森,武艳强,等.中国大陆整体无净旋转基准及其应用[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2005,25(4):6～10.15YangGuohua,JiangZaisen,WuYanqiang,etal.NonetrotationoncrustalmovementofChinamainlandanditsapplication[J].JournalofGeodesyandGeodynamics,2005,25(4):6-10.(inChinese)
16张希,江在森.用最小二乘配置获得地形变应变场动态图像的几个问题研究[J].地壳形变与地震,1999,19(3):32～39.16ZhangXiandJiangZaisen.Studyonsomequestionsofdynamicpicturesofcrustaldeformationandstrainfieldsobtainedbytheleastsquarecollocation[J].CrustaldeformationandEarthquake,1999,19(3):32-39.(inChinese)
17江在森,丁平,王双绪,刘文义.中国西部大地形变监测与地震预测[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.17JiangZaisen,DingPing,etal.TelluricdeformationmonitoringandearthquakepredictioninWestChina[M].Beijiang:SeismologicalPress,2001.(inChinese)
18陆远忠,李胜乐,等.基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M].成都:成都地图出版社,2002.18LuYuanzhong,LiShengle,etal.GISbasedsystemofearthquakeanalysisandprediction[M].Chengdu:ChengduMapPress,2002.(inChinese)
19吴云.台湾集集921地震地壳形变的简介与讨论[J].地壳形变与地震,2001,21(2):59～63.19WuYun.ThecrustaldeformationofChiChiearthquakeinTaiwan[J].CrustalDeformationandEarthquake,2001,21(2):59-63.(inChinese)
20陈立德.震源破裂类型的划分及预报意义[J].华南地震,1998,18(3):10～15.20ChenLide.Divisionofsourcerupturetypesanditssignificanceinearthquakeprediction[J].SouthChinaJournalofEarthquake,1998,18(3):10-15.(inChinese)
21江在森,牛安福,王敏,等.活动断裂带构造变形定量分析[J].地震学报,2005,27(6):610～619.21JiangZaisen,NiuAnfu,WangMin,etal.Quantitativeanalysisfortectonicdeformationonactiverupturezone[J].ActaSeismologicalSinica,2005,18(6):656-665.(inChinese)
22张希,江在森,王琪,等.青藏块体东北缘弹性块体边界负位错反演与强震地点预测[J].地震学报,2005,27(6):620～629.22ZhangXi,JiangZaisen,WangQi,etal.InversionfornegativedislocationonelasticblockboundariesinthenortheasternmarginofQinghaiTibetblockandpredictionforstrongearthquakelocation[J].ActaSeismologicalSinica,2005,27(6):620-629.(inChinese)
1 朱文耀,程宗颐,等.中国大陆地壳运动的背景场[J].科学通报,1999,44(14):1537～1540.1 ZhuWenyao,ChengZongyi,etal.BackgroundofcrustalmovementofChina[J].ChineseScienceBulletin,1999,44(14):1537-1539.(inChinese)
2 WangQi,ZhangPeizhen,JeffreyT,etal.Present day crustaldeformationinChinaconstrainedbyglobalpositio ningsystemmeasurements[J].Science,2001,294:574-577.
3 马宗晋,陈鑫连,叶叔华,等.中国大陆区现今地壳运动的GPS研究[J].科学通报,2001,46(13):1118～1120.3 MaZongjin,ChenXinlian,YeShuhua,etal.Contemporary crustalmovementofcontinentalChinaobtainedbyglobalpo sitioningsystem(GPS)measurement[J].ChineseScience Bulletin,2001,46(13):1118-1120.(inChinese)
4 杨国华,李延兴,韩月萍,等.由GPS观测结果推导中国大陆现今水平应变场[J].地震学报,2002,24(4):337～347.4 YangGuohua,LiYanxing,HanYueping,etal.Current horizontalstrainfieldinChinesemainlandderivedfromGPS data[J].ActaseismologicaSinica,200224(4):337～347.(inChinese)
5 马宗晋,张培震,任金卫,等.从GPS水平矢量场对中国及全球地壳运动的新认识[J].地球科学进展,2003,18(1):4～11.5 MaZongjin,ZhangPeizhen,RenJinwei,etal.Newcognitions ontheglobalandChinesecontinentalcrustalmovements fromGPShorizontalvectorfields[J].AdvanceinEarthSci ences.2003,18(1):4-11.(inChinese)
6 黄立人,符养,段五杏,等.由GPS观测结果推断中国大陆活动构造边界[J].地球物理学报,2003,46(5):609～615.6 HuangLiren,FuYang,DuanWuxing,etal.Activetectonic boundariesoftheChinamainlandinferredfromGPSobserva tions[J].ChineseJ.Geophys.2003,609-615.(inChi nese)
7 江在森,马宗晋,张希,等.GPS初步结果揭示的中国大陆水平应变场与构造变形[J].地球物理学报,2003,46(3):352～358.7 JiangZaisen,MaZongjin,ZhangXi,etal.Horizontal strainfieldandtectonicdeformationofChinamainlandre vealedbypreliminaryGPSresult[J].ChineseJournalof Geophysics,2003,46(3):352-358.(inChinese)
8 李延兴,杨国华,李智,等.中国大陆活动地块的运动与应变状态[J].中国科学(D辑),2003,33(Sup):65～81.8 LiYanxing,YangGuohua,LiZhi,etal.Movementand strainconditionsofactiveblocksinChinesemainland[J].ScienceinChina(SeriesD),2003,33(Supp.):61-81.(inChinese)
9 杨国华,王敏,韩月萍,等.山西地震带近期水平运动状态及活动性[J].地壳形变与地震,1999,19(4):50～55.9 YangGuohua,WangMin,HanYueping,etal.Presentcrus talhorizontalmovementandactivityofShanxifaultbeltde terminedbyGPS[J].Crustaldeformationandearthquake,1999,19(4):50-55.(inChinese)
10江在森,张希,陈兵,等.华北地区近期地壳水平运动与应力应变场特征[J].地球物理学报,2000,43(5):657～665.10JiangZaisen,ZhangXi,ChenBing,etal.CharacteristicsofrecenthorizontalmovementandstressstrainfieldinthecrustofnorthChina[J].ChineseJournalofGeophysics,2000,43(5):657-665.(inChinese)
11江在森,张希,崔笃信,等.青藏块体东北缘近期水平运动与变形[J].地球物理学报,2001,44(5):636～544.11JiangZaisen,ZhangXi,CuiDuxin,etal.RecenthorizontalmovementanddeformationinthenortheastmarginofQinghaiTibetblock[J].ChineseJournalofGeophysics,2001,44(5):636-544.(inChinese)
12江在森,张希,祝意青,等.昆仑山口西Ms8.1地震前区域构造变形背景.中国科学(D辑),2003,33(Supp):163～172.12JiangZaisen,ZhangXi,ZhuYiqing,etal.RegionaltectonicdeformationbackgroundbeforetheMs8.1earthquakeinthewestoftheKunlunMountainsPass[J].ScienceinChina(SeriesD),2003,33(Supp.):163-172.
13张强,朱文耀,熊永清.关于ITRF96参考框架整体旋转性的探讨[J].地球物理学报,2000,43(5):598～606.13ZhangQiang,ZhuWenyaoandXiongYongqing.NetrotationoftheITRF96[J].ChineseJournalofGeophysics,2000,43(5):598-606.(inChinese)
14朱文耀,符养,李彦,等.ITRF2000的无整体旋转约束及最新全球板块运动模型NNRITRF2000VEL[J].中国科学(D辑),2003,33(Supp):1～11.14ZhuWenyao,FuYang,LiYan,etal.NonetrotationconstraintonITRF2000andlatestplatemovementmodelNNR2ITRF2000VEL[J].ScienceinChina(SeriesD),2003,33(supp.):1-11.(inChinese)
15杨国华,江在森,武艳强,等.中国大陆整体无净旋转基准及其应用[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2005,25(4):6～10.15YangGuohua,JiangZaisen,WuYanqiang,etal.NonetrotationoncrustalmovementofChinamainlandanditsapplication[J].JournalofGeodesyandGeodynamics,2005,25(4):6-10.(inChinese)
16张希,江在森.用最小二乘配置获得地形变应变场动态图像的几个问题研究[J].地壳形变与地震,1999,19(3):32～39.16ZhangXiandJiangZaisen.Studyonsomequestionsofdynamicpicturesofcrustaldeformationandstrainfieldsobtainedbytheleastsquarecollocation[J].CrustaldeformationandEarthquake,1999,19(3):32-39.(inChinese)
17江在森,丁平,王双绪,刘文义.中国西部大地形变监测与地震预测[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.17JiangZaisen,DingPing,etal.TelluricdeformationmonitoringandearthquakepredictioninWestChina[M].Beijiang:SeismologicalPress,2001.(inChinese)
18陆远忠,李胜乐,等.基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M].成都:成都地图出版社,2002.18LuYuanzhong,LiShengle,etal.GISbasedsystemofearthquakeanalysisandprediction[M].Chengdu:ChengduMapPress,2002.(inChinese)
19吴云.台湾集集921地震地壳形变的简介与讨论[J].地壳形变与地震,2001,21(2):59～63.19WuYun.ThecrustaldeformationofChiChiearthquakeinTaiwan[J].CrustalDeformationandEarthquake,2001,21(2):59-63.(inChinese)
20陈立德.震源破裂类型的划分及预报意义[J].华南地震,1998,18(3):10～15.20ChenLide.Divisionofsourcerupturetypesanditssignificanceinearthquakeprediction[J].SouthChinaJournalofEarthquake,1998,18(3):10-15.(inChinese)
21江在森,牛安福,王敏,等.活动断裂带构造变形定量分析[J].地震学报,2005,27(6):610～619.21JiangZaisen,NiuAnfu,WangMin,etal.Quantitativeanalysisfortectonicdeformationonactiverupturezone[J].ActaSeismologicalSinica,2005,18(6):656-665.(inChinese)
22张希,江在森,王琪,等.青藏块体东北缘弹性块体边界负位错反演与强震地点预测[J].地震学报,2005,27(6):620～629.22ZhangXi,JiangZaisen,WangQi,etal.InversionfornegativedislocationonelasticblockboundariesinthenortheasternmarginofQinghaiTibetblockandpredictionforstrongearthquakelocation[J].ActaSeismologicalSinica,2005,27(6):620-629.(inChinese)
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