汶川县城泥石流灾害风险评价研究
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摘要
泥石流灾害是对我国西南山区城镇威胁最为严重的地质灾害之一。强震的作用则会诱发大量的滑坡和崩塌等不良地质体,为泥石流的发生提供了必要的物源条件。为深入认识在强震和强降雨等极端事件下震区泥石流的危害特征及潜在风险,以汶川8.0级地震强震区汶川县城后山南沟为例,基于高分辨率RS影像和GIS技术,通过开展危险性和易损性评价、指标分类及赋值、空间计算及叠加分析,对该城区泥石流风险开展了实例研究,并基于此探讨了强震区城镇泥石流灾害风险评价方法,评价结果可为该城镇乃至西南强震区城镇泥石流灾害的防灾减灾规划提供参考和依据。
Debris flow is one of the serious geologic hazards in southwest of China,which is dangerous to urban towns located in mountain areas. The effect of earthquake can cause large numbers of landslides and falling, which provide enough loose materials for debris flow. In order to know more characteristics and potential risk of the debris flow induced by the extreme events such as strong earthquake,intense rainfall,based of the high resolution remote sensing image and GIS,taking Nangou located in Wenchuan city as an example,the debris-flow risk assessment of Nangou is made by assessment of hazard and volubility,index classification,spatial calculation and spatial analysis. Then,the method for urban debris-flow risk assessment in strong seismic zone is discussed. The assessment results are of referential value for Wenchuan and other strong earthquake zones in southeast of China in planning urban debris-flow disaster prevention and reduction.
Debris flow is one of the serious geologic hazards in southwest of China,which is dangerous to urban towns located in mountain areas. The effect of earthquake can cause large numbers of landslides and falling, which provide enough loose materials for debris flow. In order to know more characteristics and potential risk of the debris flow induced by the extreme events such as strong earthquake,intense rainfall,based of the high resolution remote sensing image and GIS,taking Nangou located in Wenchuan city as an example,the debris-flow risk assessment of Nangou is made by assessment of hazard and volubility,index classification,spatial calculation and spatial analysis. Then,the method for urban debris-flow risk assessment in strong seismic zone is discussed. The assessment results are of referential value for Wenchuan and other strong earthquake zones in southeast of China in planning urban debris-flow disaster prevention and reduction.
引文
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[29]唐川,刘洪江.泥石流堆积扇危险度分区定量评价研究[J].土壤侵蚀与水土保持学报,1997,3(3):63-70.
[30]Wisner B.Assessment of capability and vulnerability[C]//Bankoff G,Frerks G,Hilhorst D.Mapping vulnerability.Lon-don:Earthscan,2004:183193.
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[32]Fell C.Landslide risk assessment[J].Rotterdam:A.A Balke-ma,1997:25-50.
[2]Marcel Hürlimann,Ramon Copons,Joan Altimir.Detailed deb-ris flow hazard assessment in Andorra:A multidisciplinary ap-proach[J].Geomorphology,2006,78:359372.
[3]Petrascheck A,Kienholz H.Hazard assessment and mapping of mountain risks in Switzerland[J].Geotech.J.,2004,42:101107.
[4]Adam B Prochaska,Paul M Santi,Jerry D Higgins,et al.De-brisflow runout predictions based on the average channel slope(ACS)[J].Engineering Geology,2008,98:29-40.
[5]Antonucci A,Salvettib A,Zaffalon M.Hazard assessment of debris flows by credal networks[J].Natural Hazards,2000,43:173181.
[6]Smith K.Environmental hazards:assessing risk and reducing disaster[M].London:Routledge,1996:1238.
[7]Burby R J.Cooperating with nature:confronting natural hazard with land use planning[M].Washington,DC:Joseph Henry Press,1998.
[8]Van C J.Westen Geo Information tools for landslide risk assess-ment.An overview of recent developments[J].Surveys in Geo-physics,2005,21(2/3):241255.
[9]Calvo F Napoletano,Savi F.Debris flow risk assessment:a case study[J].Geophysical Research Abstracts,2006,18:341-347.
[10]Conversini D Salclarini,Felicioni G.The debris flow hazard in the Lagarelle Creek in the eastern Umbria region,central Italy[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2005(5):275283.
[11]张春山,吴满路,张业成.地质灾害风险评价方法及展望[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(1):96-102.
[12]丁继新,杨志法,尚彦军,等.区域泥石流灾害的定量风险分析[J].岩石力学,2006,27(7):71-76.
[13]刘希林,莫多闻.泥石流易损度评价[J].地理研究,2002,21(5):569577.
[14]赵源,刘希林.泥石流灾害损失评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2005,16(3):42-47.
[15]张梁,张业成.地质灾害经济损失评价方法研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1999,11(12):95-102.
[16]刘希林.泥石流风险区划研究[J].地质力学学报,2000,6(4):37-42.
[17]刘希林,莫多闻.泥石流风险评价[M].成都:四川科技出版社,2002.
[18]刘希林,唐川.泥石流危险性评价[M].北京:科学出版社,1995.
[19]铁永波,唐川.山区城镇泥石流灾害风险控制模式探讨[J].灾害学,2008,23(3):10-14.
[20]杜榕桓,李德基,祁龙.我国山区城镇泥石流减灾特点与防御对策研究[M].武汉:湖北科学技术出版社,1992.
[21]Takahashi T.Estimation of potential debris flows and their hazard-ous zones;soft countermeasures for a disaster[J].Natural Dis-aster Science,1981(3):5789.
[22]Chang Tung Chiung.Risk degree of debris flow applying neural networks[J].Nat Hazards,2007,42:209224.
[23]Blaikie P,Cannon T.Risk:Natural hazards,peoples vulnerabil-ity and disasters[M].London:Geological Issue Press,1994.
[24]Weichselgartner J.Disaster mitigation:the concept of vulnerabil-ity revisited[J].Disaster Prevention and Management,2001,10:8594.
[25]王礼先.北京山区荒漠溪分类与危险区制图[J].山地研究,1995,13(3):141146.
[26]唐川,刘希林,朱静.泥石流堆积泛滥区危险度的评价与应用[J].自然灾害学报,1993,2(4):79-84.
[27]Dwain Boyer.Risk assessment procedure for proposed resource development activities above alluvial and debris torrent fans[R].2004.
[28]刘希林.泥石流地貌标志的初步探讨[J].灾害学,1987(4):27-32.
[29]唐川,刘洪江.泥石流堆积扇危险度分区定量评价研究[J].土壤侵蚀与水土保持学报,1997,3(3):63-70.
[30]Wisner B.Assessment of capability and vulnerability[C]//Bankoff G,Frerks G,Hilhorst D.Mapping vulnerability.Lon-don:Earthscan,2004:183193.
[31]UNDRO.Mitigation natural disasters:phenomena,effects,and options.A manual for policy makers and planners[R].Office of the United Nations Disaster Relief Co ordinator,Geneva,1991.
[32]Fell C.Landslide risk assessment[J].Rotterdam:A.A Balke-ma,1997:25-50.
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