地震大形势预测方法的预测效能与应用研究
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摘要
采用地震非均匀度(GL值)预测方法,在震例回朔性检验研究、室内岩石破裂实验及GPS观测结果等三种途径对该方法预测效能进行评价研究的基础上,开展对中国大陆未来1~3年强地震活动主体地区和危险性预测工作。效能评价结果表明,地震非均匀度(GL值)可以较好地刻画岩石失稳前因破裂成核导致的声发射活动在时间分布上的状态变化,这种状态变化可能与强地震孕育进入末期、强地震即将发生有关。地震非均匀度时空扫描结果表明,未来1~3年中国大陆强地震活动主体地区将集中在青藏块体中北部及新疆南天山地区,上述区域在未来一个时期发生多次6.5级乃至7级以上地震的可能性较大。
Based on the earthquake retrospective testing,the experiment of rock rupture and the results of GPS observation,the prediction efficiency of the method and the potentially risk areas of strong earthquakes in China′s mainland in next 1~3 years are studied in this paper by means of the Seismic Inhomogeneous Degree(GL value).The result of efficiency evaluation proved that GL value can well depict the state changes of acoustic emission activity with time,which resulted from the rupture nucleation before rocks becoming instable.And the changes may be associated with the strong earthquake preparation.The space-time scanning results of GL value show that the high risk area of strong earthquakes in China′s mainland in the next 1~3 years is mainly concentrated in the northern part of Tibetan plateau and the Southern TianShan range region in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,where the earthquakes with magnitude 6.5,even greeter than 7 will take place with greater probability.
Based on the earthquake retrospective testing,the experiment of rock rupture and the results of GPS observation,the prediction efficiency of the method and the potentially risk areas of strong earthquakes in China′s mainland in next 1~3 years are studied in this paper by means of the Seismic Inhomogeneous Degree(GL value).The result of efficiency evaluation proved that GL value can well depict the state changes of acoustic emission activity with time,which resulted from the rupture nucleation before rocks becoming instable.And the changes may be associated with the strong earthquake preparation.The space-time scanning results of GL value show that the high risk area of strong earthquakes in China′s mainland in the next 1~3 years is mainly concentrated in the northern part of Tibetan plateau and the Southern TianShan range region in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,where the earthquakes with magnitude 6.5,even greeter than 7 will take place with greater probability.
引文
[1]梅世蓉,冯德益.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.
[2]李志雄,高旭.地震非均匀度的研究及在强震中期预报中的应用[J].地震,1994,14(6):11-17.
[3]李志雄,马胜利,李圣强,等.地震非均匀度物理意义的实验研究[J].地震学报,2005,27(6):682-690.
[4]马胜利,雷兴林,刘力强.标本非均匀性对岩石变形声发射时空分布的影响及其地震学意义[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(1):127-131.
[5]马胜利,蒋海昆,扈小燕,等.基于声发射实验结果讨论大震前地震活动平静现象的机制[J].地震地质,2004,26(3):426-435.
[6]蒋海昆,马胜利,张流等.雁列式断层组合变形过程中的声发射活动特征[J].地震学报,2002,24(4):385-396.
[7]蒋海昆,马胜利,张流,等.含障碍体平直断层变形过程中的声发射特征[J].地球物理学报,2002,46(2):209-216.
[8]江在森,杨国华,王敏,等.中国大陆地壳运动与强震关系研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2006,26(3):1-9.
[2]李志雄,高旭.地震非均匀度的研究及在强震中期预报中的应用[J].地震,1994,14(6):11-17.
[3]李志雄,马胜利,李圣强,等.地震非均匀度物理意义的实验研究[J].地震学报,2005,27(6):682-690.
[4]马胜利,雷兴林,刘力强.标本非均匀性对岩石变形声发射时空分布的影响及其地震学意义[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(1):127-131.
[5]马胜利,蒋海昆,扈小燕,等.基于声发射实验结果讨论大震前地震活动平静现象的机制[J].地震地质,2004,26(3):426-435.
[6]蒋海昆,马胜利,张流等.雁列式断层组合变形过程中的声发射活动特征[J].地震学报,2002,24(4):385-396.
[7]蒋海昆,马胜利,张流,等.含障碍体平直断层变形过程中的声发射特征[J].地球物理学报,2002,46(2):209-216.
[8]江在森,杨国华,王敏,等.中国大陆地壳运动与强震关系研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2006,26(3):1-9.
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