D-S理论在多传感器短临震预报中的应用
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摘要
在D-S理论的基础上,结合模糊数学理论,依据地震前兆,给出了短临震预报的信息融合算法。首先,对在现场工作的地电、地应力、地下水位、短水准、水氡等传感器的数值进行特征提取,把模糊数学中隶属度函数的概念运用到D-S理论中,得出每种前兆出现时地震发生的信度函数分配,然后,采用多传感器分布式融合算法进行信息融合,利用判决规则来预报地震。通过对1976年唐山7.8级地震预报的仿真,结果表明:D-S理论在地震预报中具有一定的有效性和优越性。
An information fusion algorithm for short-term and impending earthquake prediction by seismic precursor is presented.The algorithm is based on D-S theory and fuzzy mathematics.Firstly,the characteristic values of Geoelectricity,ground stress,groundwater level,short levelling and groundwater radon sensors in the locale are extracted.Then,the concept of membership function in fuzzy mathematics is generalized to D-S theory to produce basic probability assignment(BPA) of earthquake when each precursor occurs.The BPAs fuse according as D-S rule,and through the judge rule of target mode,the situation of earthquake is predicted at last.Through the prediction simulation to 7.8 earthquake of Tangshan in 1976,it is shown that the D-S theory is more efficient and superiority in earthquake prediction.
An information fusion algorithm for short-term and impending earthquake prediction by seismic precursor is presented.The algorithm is based on D-S theory and fuzzy mathematics.Firstly,the characteristic values of Geoelectricity,ground stress,groundwater level,short levelling and groundwater radon sensors in the locale are extracted.Then,the concept of membership function in fuzzy mathematics is generalized to D-S theory to produce basic probability assignment(BPA) of earthquake when each precursor occurs.The BPAs fuse according as D-S rule,and through the judge rule of target mode,the situation of earthquake is predicted at last.Through the prediction simulation to 7.8 earthquake of Tangshan in 1976,it is shown that the D-S theory is more efficient and superiority in earthquake prediction.
引文
[1]何友,王国宏,彭应宁,等.多传感器信息融合及应用[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2001.1-11.
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[3]张国民.我国地震监测预报研究的主要科学进展[J].地震,2002,22(1):2-8.
[4]郭德科,赵卫红,李炳文.冀鲁豫交界区地下流体模糊熵值的变化与地震的关系[J].地震研究,2003,26(1):80-85.
[5]朱大奇,于盛林.基于D-S证据理论的数据融合算法及其在电路故障诊断中的应用[J].电子学报,2002,30(2):221-223.
[6]国家地震局科研处.唐山地震考察与研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1981.106-226.
[7]国家地震局《一九七六年唐山地震》编辑组.一九七六年唐山地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.201-314.
[8]张淑亮,范雪芬,何申红.山西及邻区地下水位中短期异常识别标志及预报方法研究[J].山西地震,2002,(1):23-28.
[9]林辉,张平,唐采,等.云南地区强震前兆短期综合异常特征研究[J].地震,2004,24(4):113-118.
[2]郝建国,张云福.地震静电预测学[M].东营:石油大学出版社,2001,1-3.
[3]张国民.我国地震监测预报研究的主要科学进展[J].地震,2002,22(1):2-8.
[4]郭德科,赵卫红,李炳文.冀鲁豫交界区地下流体模糊熵值的变化与地震的关系[J].地震研究,2003,26(1):80-85.
[5]朱大奇,于盛林.基于D-S证据理论的数据融合算法及其在电路故障诊断中的应用[J].电子学报,2002,30(2):221-223.
[6]国家地震局科研处.唐山地震考察与研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1981.106-226.
[7]国家地震局《一九七六年唐山地震》编辑组.一九七六年唐山地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.201-314.
[8]张淑亮,范雪芬,何申红.山西及邻区地下水位中短期异常识别标志及预报方法研究[J].山西地震,2002,(1):23-28.
[9]林辉,张平,唐采,等.云南地区强震前兆短期综合异常特征研究[J].地震,2004,24(4):113-118.
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