北天山西段中强震前中小地震活动特征讨论
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摘要
通过对不同地震断裂带的地震活动趋势分析,对强震前中小地震的时空特征进行分析,对研究区域强震前的活动特征做了定性或定量的总结,以提高日后对地震预报的水平和可信度。北天山西段及准噶尔南缘地震断裂带及断裂带上中强震前地震活动有如下特征:(1)区域内断裂带多数在活动速率、结构都有比较详细的研究,喀什河断裂带活动速率较高,依连哈比尔尕断裂西段阿拉山口—精河段存在闭锁,准噶尔南缘成组断裂带1990年以来5级地震较活跃;(2)喀什河断裂、准噶尔南缘成组断裂中强震前3~4级地震地震活动图像特征明显,成条带、空区或在主震附近集中分布;(3)准噶尔南缘中强震有成组发生的特征,间隔一般不超过2年;(4)4级标志地震后半年内发生中强震的概率较大。
Through analyzing earthquakes activity tendency,time-space characteristics of moderately small earthquakes before strong earthquakes,and doing qualitative and quantitative summary of strong earthquakes activity characteristics in the study area,the earthquake prediction level and reliability would be improved.The earthquakes activity characteristics before moderately strong earthquake in the study area are analyzed in the following :(1) In the study area,the activity rate of Kashi river fault was the highest and the lowest existed in the west part of Yilianhabierga fault.The MS 5.0 earthquakes were active in the southern fault of Dzungarian Basin;(2)There was obvious 3 to 4 earthquakes activity characteristics along Kashi river fault and southern fault of Dzungarian Basin.They formed seismic belt,seismic gap or gathered around the main earthquake;(3)The moderately strong earthquakes occurred in group and the interval was not more than 2 years;(4)The possibility of moderately strong earthquake was bigger in 6 months after 4 sign earthquake.
Through analyzing earthquakes activity tendency,time-space characteristics of moderately small earthquakes before strong earthquakes,and doing qualitative and quantitative summary of strong earthquakes activity characteristics in the study area,the earthquake prediction level and reliability would be improved.The earthquakes activity characteristics before moderately strong earthquake in the study area are analyzed in the following :(1) In the study area,the activity rate of Kashi river fault was the highest and the lowest existed in the west part of Yilianhabierga fault.The MS 5.0 earthquakes were active in the southern fault of Dzungarian Basin;(2)There was obvious 3 to 4 earthquakes activity characteristics along Kashi river fault and southern fault of Dzungarian Basin.They formed seismic belt,seismic gap or gathered around the main earthquake;(3)The moderately strong earthquakes occurred in group and the interval was not more than 2 years;(4)The possibility of moderately strong earthquake was bigger in 6 months after 4 sign earthquake.
引文
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[2]杨晓平,沈军.天山内部博罗可努断裂精河-阿拉山口段晚更新世以来的活动特征[J].地震地质,2000,22(3):305-315.
[3]宋和平.论新疆深大断裂特征与地震的关系(3)[J].内陆地震,2006,20(3):198-210.
[4]杨晓平,邓起东,张培震,等.北天山地区活动逆断裂-褶皱带构造与潜在震源区估计[J].地震地质,1998,20(3):193-200.
[5]邓起东,冯先岳,张培震,等.乌鲁木齐山前坳陷逆断裂-褶皱带及其形成机制[J].地学前缘,1999,6(4):191-201.
[6]尹光华,蒋靖祥,张勇.新疆伊犁喀什河断裂带及其活动性研究[J].内陆地震,2003,17(2):109-116.
[7]罗福忠,柏美祥,陈建波.新疆伊宁盆地活动断裂新活动特征研究[J].内陆地震,2003,17(1):4-10.
[8]尹光华.伊宁盆地新构造运动与地震[J].内陆地震,1993,7(2):180-187.
[9]史兰斌,李祖信,唐汉军,等.新疆特克斯河下游河段断层活动性研究[J].工程地质学报,1994,2(3):13-20.
[10]冯先岳,陈杰,李军,等.霍尔果斯活动构造的断裂扩展褶皱作用[J].内陆地震,1993,7(4):335-343.
[11]李杰,方伟,朱治国,等.中部天山地壳活动中GPS初步分析[J].内陆地震,2006,20(3):239-244.
[12]胡方秋,刘景元.用遥感图像分析北天山西段活动断裂的展布特征及活动速率[J].内陆地震,1989,3(1):27-33.
[13]李莹甄,沈军,王海涛.天山各分区地震活动性与能量积累阶段关系初探[J].中国地震,2005,21(4):496-506.
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