青藏高原对华北地区地震活动影响的统计学证据
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摘要
基于中国各构造区1900年以来的本尼奥夫应变累积释放序列,采用协整分析和因果关系检验方法研究表明,青藏高原与华北地区地震活动的应变释放存在着长期均衡关系;在某种程度上,青藏高原地区地震应变释放是华北地区应变释放发生变化的原因;青藏高原对华北地区地震应变释放的影响存在约20多年的滞后效应.本文结果对两个构造单元的地球动力学研究提供了统计学证据.
This article use cointegration and Granger causality test to study interrelationship of seismic activities,based on accumulated Benioff strain series released by various tectonic areas of China since 1900. The result shows that there is a long term equilibrium between Qingzang Plateau and North China seismic activities. This implies that the strain released by Qingzang Plateau,to a certain extent,induced strain changes in North China. The influence of Qingzang Plateau activity on that of North China showed a delay of about 20 years. There is a complex relationship between seismic activities of Qingzang Plateau and Tianshan seismic zone,which can not be simply depicted by a linear or causal correlation. There is no causality relationship between the earthquake activity in North-South seismic zone and that in North China. The equilibrium between these two areas is also obscure. These results give a statistical support for geodynamics research.
This article use cointegration and Granger causality test to study interrelationship of seismic activities,based on accumulated Benioff strain series released by various tectonic areas of China since 1900. The result shows that there is a long term equilibrium between Qingzang Plateau and North China seismic activities. This implies that the strain released by Qingzang Plateau,to a certain extent,induced strain changes in North China. The influence of Qingzang Plateau activity on that of North China showed a delay of about 20 years. There is a complex relationship between seismic activities of Qingzang Plateau and Tianshan seismic zone,which can not be simply depicted by a linear or causal correlation. There is no causality relationship between the earthquake activity in North-South seismic zone and that in North China. The equilibrium between these two areas is also obscure. These results give a statistical support for geodynamics research.
引文
陈宇卫,张军,闫素萍,庆梅.2003.西部地区特大地震活动特征及其对大华北地震趋势的影响[J].地震地质,25(4):647-654.
冯锐,马宗晋,方剑.2007.发展中的板块边界:天山—贝加尔活动构造带[J].地学前缘,14(4):1-17.
傅容珊,徐耀民,黄建华,李力刚.2000.青藏高原挤压隆升过程的数值模拟[J].地球物理学报,43(3):346-355.
何淑韵,吴佳翼.1995.世界分区强震与中国地震的相关性研究[J].地震学报,17(2):172-179.
何宗海.1994.中国南北地震带中北部最小完整性震级的探讨[J].西北大学学报:自然科学版,24(5):411-416
嵇少丞,王茜,孙圣思,许志琴,李海兵.2008.亚洲大陆逃逸构造与现今中国地震活动[J].地质学报,82(12):1643-1667.
刘杰.2000.地震活动泊松模型和应力释放模型在地震预测和地震危险性评估中的一些应用研究[J].国际地震动态,(10):22-23.
钱俊峰,肖安成,杨树峰,贾东,孟立丰,李一泉.2009.南天山造山带与西昆仑(帕米尔)造山带深层岩石圈对接[J].科技通报,25(2):153-159.
汪素云,许忠淮.1980.中国及邻区现代构造应力场的数值模拟[J].地球物理学报,23(1):34-45.
汪素云,许忠淮,俞言样,张琳.1996.中国及其邻区周围板块作用力的研究[J].地球物理学报,39(6):764-771
武传真,焦灵秀,王谦身,杨振岱.1993.帕米尔及其周围地区的重力场特征与地壳构造的研究[J].地球物理学报,36(5):633-642.
吴佳翼,郁曙君,何叔韵.1979.华北地震同日本地震的相关性[J].地球物理学报,22(4):415-438.
肖兰喜,朱元清,陶九庆,杜宪宋.2003.岩石圈流变强度与中国大陆构造运动关系的探讨[J].西北地震学报,25(4):304-311.
肖兰喜.2009.华北地区与青藏高原地区强震孕育过程相关性的动力学解释[J].国际地震动态,(4):73.
徐纪人,赵志新.2006.青藏高原及其周围地区区域应力场与构造运动特征[J].中国地质,33(2):275-285.
胥颐,刘福田,刘建华,孙若昧.2000.天山地震带的地壳结构与强震构造环境[J].地球物理学报,43(2):184-193.
许忠淮,石耀霖.2003.岩石圈结构与大陆动力学[J].地震学报,25(5):512-527.
杨国华,李延兴,韩月萍,胡新康,巩曰沐.2002.由GPS结果推导中国大陆现今水平应变场[J].地震学报,24(4):337-347.
张国民,李献智,耿鲁明.1994.印度板块北边界地震活动和中国大陆地震[J].地震,14(3):1-9.
张国民,马宏生,王辉,李丽.2004.中国大陆活动地块与强震活动关系[J].中国科学:D辑,34(7):1-12
张家声,李燕,韩竹均.2003.青藏高原向东挤出的变形响应及南北地震带构造组成[J].地学前缘,10(增刊):168-175.
张家声,单新建,李建华,黄雄南.2005.帕米尔地区现今大陆深俯冲:地震构造和动力学解释[J].岩石学报,21(4):1215-1227.
张培震,邓起东,张国民,马瑾,甘卫军,闵伟,毛凤英,王琪.2003.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学:D辑,33(增刊):12-20.
张世英,樊智.2004.协整理论与波动模型[M].北京:清华大学出版社:1-482.
郑建常,蒋海昆.2007.鲁东-黄海地块与日本南部地震活动相关性分析及因果关系检验[J].地震学报,29(4):358-368.
Dickey D A,Fuller WA.1979.Distribution of the esti mationfor autoregressionti me series with a unit root[J].Journalof American Statistical Association,74(336):427-432.
Granger C WJ.1969.Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods[J].Econometrica,37(3):424-438.
Granger C WJ.1980.Testing for causality:A personal viewpoint[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2(1):329-352.
Johansen S.1988.Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,12(2):231-254.
Johansen S.1991.Esti mation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models[J].Econometrica,59(6):1551-1580.
Johansen S,Juselius K.1990.Maxi mumlikelihood esti mation andinferences on cointegration with applications to the de-mand for money[J].Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,52(2):169-210.
Leon Reiter.1990.Earthquake Hazard Analysis:Issues and Insights[M].New York:Columbia University Press:1-254.
Ian Main.1999.Is the Reliable Prediction of Individual Earthquakes a Realistic Scientific Goal-[R/OL].[2008-08-20].http:∥www.nature.com/nature/debates/earthquake/equake-frameset.ht ml.
Wang Q,Zhang P Z,Freymueller J T,Bilham R,Larson K M,Lai X,You X,Niu Z,Wu J,Li Y,Liu J,Yang Z,ChenQ.2001.Present-day crustal deformationin China constrained by Global Positioning System measurements[J].Sci-ence,294(5542):574-577.
冯锐,马宗晋,方剑.2007.发展中的板块边界:天山—贝加尔活动构造带[J].地学前缘,14(4):1-17.
傅容珊,徐耀民,黄建华,李力刚.2000.青藏高原挤压隆升过程的数值模拟[J].地球物理学报,43(3):346-355.
何淑韵,吴佳翼.1995.世界分区强震与中国地震的相关性研究[J].地震学报,17(2):172-179.
何宗海.1994.中国南北地震带中北部最小完整性震级的探讨[J].西北大学学报:自然科学版,24(5):411-416
嵇少丞,王茜,孙圣思,许志琴,李海兵.2008.亚洲大陆逃逸构造与现今中国地震活动[J].地质学报,82(12):1643-1667.
刘杰.2000.地震活动泊松模型和应力释放模型在地震预测和地震危险性评估中的一些应用研究[J].国际地震动态,(10):22-23.
钱俊峰,肖安成,杨树峰,贾东,孟立丰,李一泉.2009.南天山造山带与西昆仑(帕米尔)造山带深层岩石圈对接[J].科技通报,25(2):153-159.
汪素云,许忠淮.1980.中国及邻区现代构造应力场的数值模拟[J].地球物理学报,23(1):34-45.
汪素云,许忠淮,俞言样,张琳.1996.中国及其邻区周围板块作用力的研究[J].地球物理学报,39(6):764-771
武传真,焦灵秀,王谦身,杨振岱.1993.帕米尔及其周围地区的重力场特征与地壳构造的研究[J].地球物理学报,36(5):633-642.
吴佳翼,郁曙君,何叔韵.1979.华北地震同日本地震的相关性[J].地球物理学报,22(4):415-438.
肖兰喜,朱元清,陶九庆,杜宪宋.2003.岩石圈流变强度与中国大陆构造运动关系的探讨[J].西北地震学报,25(4):304-311.
肖兰喜.2009.华北地区与青藏高原地区强震孕育过程相关性的动力学解释[J].国际地震动态,(4):73.
徐纪人,赵志新.2006.青藏高原及其周围地区区域应力场与构造运动特征[J].中国地质,33(2):275-285.
胥颐,刘福田,刘建华,孙若昧.2000.天山地震带的地壳结构与强震构造环境[J].地球物理学报,43(2):184-193.
许忠淮,石耀霖.2003.岩石圈结构与大陆动力学[J].地震学报,25(5):512-527.
杨国华,李延兴,韩月萍,胡新康,巩曰沐.2002.由GPS结果推导中国大陆现今水平应变场[J].地震学报,24(4):337-347.
张国民,李献智,耿鲁明.1994.印度板块北边界地震活动和中国大陆地震[J].地震,14(3):1-9.
张国民,马宏生,王辉,李丽.2004.中国大陆活动地块与强震活动关系[J].中国科学:D辑,34(7):1-12
张家声,李燕,韩竹均.2003.青藏高原向东挤出的变形响应及南北地震带构造组成[J].地学前缘,10(增刊):168-175.
张家声,单新建,李建华,黄雄南.2005.帕米尔地区现今大陆深俯冲:地震构造和动力学解释[J].岩石学报,21(4):1215-1227.
张培震,邓起东,张国民,马瑾,甘卫军,闵伟,毛凤英,王琪.2003.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学:D辑,33(增刊):12-20.
张世英,樊智.2004.协整理论与波动模型[M].北京:清华大学出版社:1-482.
郑建常,蒋海昆.2007.鲁东-黄海地块与日本南部地震活动相关性分析及因果关系检验[J].地震学报,29(4):358-368.
Dickey D A,Fuller WA.1979.Distribution of the esti mationfor autoregressionti me series with a unit root[J].Journalof American Statistical Association,74(336):427-432.
Granger C WJ.1969.Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods[J].Econometrica,37(3):424-438.
Granger C WJ.1980.Testing for causality:A personal viewpoint[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2(1):329-352.
Johansen S.1988.Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,12(2):231-254.
Johansen S.1991.Esti mation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models[J].Econometrica,59(6):1551-1580.
Johansen S,Juselius K.1990.Maxi mumlikelihood esti mation andinferences on cointegration with applications to the de-mand for money[J].Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,52(2):169-210.
Leon Reiter.1990.Earthquake Hazard Analysis:Issues and Insights[M].New York:Columbia University Press:1-254.
Ian Main.1999.Is the Reliable Prediction of Individual Earthquakes a Realistic Scientific Goal-[R/OL].[2008-08-20].http:∥www.nature.com/nature/debates/earthquake/equake-frameset.ht ml.
Wang Q,Zhang P Z,Freymueller J T,Bilham R,Larson K M,Lai X,You X,Niu Z,Wu J,Li Y,Liu J,Yang Z,ChenQ.2001.Present-day crustal deformationin China constrained by Global Positioning System measurements[J].Sci-ence,294(5542):574-577.
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