城市天然气系统地震灾害风险评估研究
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摘要
城市天然气系统地震灾害风险评估是城市生命线工程研究的重要内容。基于城市天然气管道网路分布的特点,地震危险性分析、管道工程易损性(脆弱性)等工程研究成果基础上,考虑城市天然气系统错综复杂的网络特点,开展地震灾害风险评估构成内容研究;基于城市天然气系统震害对管道运营企业、城市的区域经济、社会和资源与环境的市场影响和非市场影响,探讨城市天然气系统的地震风险评估框架。
Earthquake disaster risk assessment of natural gas pipeline in the city is fundamental work for lifeline engineering.According to the characters of gas fuel pipeline network in urban and the basis of existing methodology and systems of the risk of seismic disaster and pipeline engineering vulnerability,this paper has established the basic thinking and framework for natural gas pipeline risk of earthquake of loss assessment on the persp ective of society,economics,resources and environment etc.With development of seismic engineering science and technology,it may be useful for risk loss management and earthquake risk assessment for pipeline.
Earthquake disaster risk assessment of natural gas pipeline in the city is fundamental work for lifeline engineering.According to the characters of gas fuel pipeline network in urban and the basis of existing methodology and systems of the risk of seismic disaster and pipeline engineering vulnerability,this paper has established the basic thinking and framework for natural gas pipeline risk of earthquake of loss assessment on the persp ective of society,economics,resources and environment etc.With development of seismic engineering science and technology,it may be useful for risk loss management and earthquake risk assessment for pipeline.
引文
[1]王秀英.地下结构震害类型及机理研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2003,13(11):55-59.
[2]郭恩栋,刘如山,孙柏涛.地下管线工程地震破坏等级划分标准[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(4):86-90.
[3]“城市与工程减灾基础研究论文集编辑委员会.城市与工程减灾差础研究论文集[M].北京:中国科学技术出版杜,1995.
[4]李宏男,柳春光.生命线工程系统减灾研究趋势与展望[J].大连理工大学学报,2005,45(6):931-936.
[5]葛全胜.中国自然灾害风险综合评估初步研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2008,233-239.
[6]聂高众.中国未来10-15年地震灾害风险评估[J].自然灾害学报,2002.11(1):68-73.
[7]郭恩栋.生命线工程震害损失快速评估系统[J].世界地震工程,2OOO,16(3):17-21.
[8]高俊波.城市燃气管网的定量风险分析模型研究[J].应用基础与工程科学学报.2008,16(2):280-286.
[9]郭恩栋.生命线工程震害损失快速评估[J].世界地震工程,1998,4(3):1-5.
[10]刘威.供气管线抗震可靠性分析[J].工程抗震与加固改造,2005,7(6):95-96.
[11]柳春光,郭恩栋.云南丽江7.0级地震生命线工程震害及功能状态评述[J].世界地震工程.1996(3):65-70.
[12]李世奎.农业气象灾害风险评估体系及模型研究[J].自然灾害学报2004,13(1):77-87.
[13]马寅生.地质灾害风险评价的理论与方法.地质力学学报,2004.10(1):7-18.
[14]马宗晋.中国自然灾害及减灾对策(总论)[M].北京:科学出版社.1994.
[15]赵振东,钟江荣,余世舟.能源供应系统地震次生火爆灾害危险性评估[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(3):89-94.
[16]黄强兵.埋地管道在地震波作用下的抗震性能分析[J].工程勘察.2004.3:64-67.
[17]刘全林,杨敏.埋地管道与土地相互作用分析模型及其参数确定[J].岩土力学,2004.25(5):728-731.
[18]裴宗厂.埋地管道震害方法简述[J].西北地震学报,2005,27(2):186-190.
[19]马玉宏.地震灾害风险分析及管理[M],北京:科学出版社,2008.
[20]黄崇福.综合风险评估的一个基本模式[J],应用基础与工程科学学报,2008,16(3):371-380.
[21]Muhlbauer W K.Pipeline risk management manual(third edition)[M].Texas,USA:Gulf Publishing Company,2004.
[22]International Bank for reconstruction and development/The World Bank and Columbia University.2005.Natural disaster hotspots:a global risk analysis.
[23]Okuyama,Yasuhidel.Economic Modeling for Disaster Impact Analysis:Past,Present,and Future[J]Economic Systems Research(2008)115-124.
[24]Sohn,J.,Hewings,G.J.D.,Kim,T.J.,Lee,J.S.and Jang,S.G.Analysis of economic impacts of earthquake on transportation network,in:Y.Okuyama and S.E.Chang(Eds)Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters[M].Texas,USA:Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg Newyork,2004.
[25]Rose,A.and Liao,S.Y.Modeling regional economic resilience to disasters:a computable general equilibrium analysis of water service disruptions[J].Journal of Regional Science,2005(45):75–112.
[26]Rose,A.,Benavides,J.,Chang,S.E.,Szczesniak,P.and Lim,D.The regional economic impact of an earthquake:direct and indirect effects of electricity lifeline disruptions[J].Journal of Regional Science,1997(37):437–458.
[27]Frank A Ward,Diana Beal.Valuing Nature with Travel Cost Models[M].Edward Elgar,2000.
[28]Nancy E.Bockstael,Kenneth E.McConnell.Environmental and resource valuation with revealed preferences[M].USA:Springer,2007.
[29]Barbara J.Kanninen.Valuing environmental amenities using stated choice studies[M].Texas,USA:springer,2007.
[30]SELCUK TOPRAK and FILIZ TASKIN.Estimation of Earthquake Damage to Buried Pipelines Caused by GroundShaking[J].NaturalHazards2007(40):1–24.
[31]赵忠刚等.油气管道可接受风险标准值的界定研究[J].西南石油大学学报(自然科学版),2008,30(2):147-150.
[32]李宏男,柳春光.生命线工程系统减灾研究趋势与展望.大连理工大学学报[J].2005,45(6):931-936.
[33]张素灵,李亦纲,曲国胜等.生命线地震工程的发展与前瞻[J].世界地震工程,2001,17(2):79-85.
[2]郭恩栋,刘如山,孙柏涛.地下管线工程地震破坏等级划分标准[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(4):86-90.
[3]“城市与工程减灾基础研究论文集编辑委员会.城市与工程减灾差础研究论文集[M].北京:中国科学技术出版杜,1995.
[4]李宏男,柳春光.生命线工程系统减灾研究趋势与展望[J].大连理工大学学报,2005,45(6):931-936.
[5]葛全胜.中国自然灾害风险综合评估初步研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2008,233-239.
[6]聂高众.中国未来10-15年地震灾害风险评估[J].自然灾害学报,2002.11(1):68-73.
[7]郭恩栋.生命线工程震害损失快速评估系统[J].世界地震工程,2OOO,16(3):17-21.
[8]高俊波.城市燃气管网的定量风险分析模型研究[J].应用基础与工程科学学报.2008,16(2):280-286.
[9]郭恩栋.生命线工程震害损失快速评估[J].世界地震工程,1998,4(3):1-5.
[10]刘威.供气管线抗震可靠性分析[J].工程抗震与加固改造,2005,7(6):95-96.
[11]柳春光,郭恩栋.云南丽江7.0级地震生命线工程震害及功能状态评述[J].世界地震工程.1996(3):65-70.
[12]李世奎.农业气象灾害风险评估体系及模型研究[J].自然灾害学报2004,13(1):77-87.
[13]马寅生.地质灾害风险评价的理论与方法.地质力学学报,2004.10(1):7-18.
[14]马宗晋.中国自然灾害及减灾对策(总论)[M].北京:科学出版社.1994.
[15]赵振东,钟江荣,余世舟.能源供应系统地震次生火爆灾害危险性评估[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(3):89-94.
[16]黄强兵.埋地管道在地震波作用下的抗震性能分析[J].工程勘察.2004.3:64-67.
[17]刘全林,杨敏.埋地管道与土地相互作用分析模型及其参数确定[J].岩土力学,2004.25(5):728-731.
[18]裴宗厂.埋地管道震害方法简述[J].西北地震学报,2005,27(2):186-190.
[19]马玉宏.地震灾害风险分析及管理[M],北京:科学出版社,2008.
[20]黄崇福.综合风险评估的一个基本模式[J],应用基础与工程科学学报,2008,16(3):371-380.
[21]Muhlbauer W K.Pipeline risk management manual(third edition)[M].Texas,USA:Gulf Publishing Company,2004.
[22]International Bank for reconstruction and development/The World Bank and Columbia University.2005.Natural disaster hotspots:a global risk analysis.
[23]Okuyama,Yasuhidel.Economic Modeling for Disaster Impact Analysis:Past,Present,and Future[J]Economic Systems Research(2008)115-124.
[24]Sohn,J.,Hewings,G.J.D.,Kim,T.J.,Lee,J.S.and Jang,S.G.Analysis of economic impacts of earthquake on transportation network,in:Y.Okuyama and S.E.Chang(Eds)Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters[M].Texas,USA:Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg Newyork,2004.
[25]Rose,A.and Liao,S.Y.Modeling regional economic resilience to disasters:a computable general equilibrium analysis of water service disruptions[J].Journal of Regional Science,2005(45):75–112.
[26]Rose,A.,Benavides,J.,Chang,S.E.,Szczesniak,P.and Lim,D.The regional economic impact of an earthquake:direct and indirect effects of electricity lifeline disruptions[J].Journal of Regional Science,1997(37):437–458.
[27]Frank A Ward,Diana Beal.Valuing Nature with Travel Cost Models[M].Edward Elgar,2000.
[28]Nancy E.Bockstael,Kenneth E.McConnell.Environmental and resource valuation with revealed preferences[M].USA:Springer,2007.
[29]Barbara J.Kanninen.Valuing environmental amenities using stated choice studies[M].Texas,USA:springer,2007.
[30]SELCUK TOPRAK and FILIZ TASKIN.Estimation of Earthquake Damage to Buried Pipelines Caused by GroundShaking[J].NaturalHazards2007(40):1–24.
[31]赵忠刚等.油气管道可接受风险标准值的界定研究[J].西南石油大学学报(自然科学版),2008,30(2):147-150.
[32]李宏男,柳春光.生命线工程系统减灾研究趋势与展望.大连理工大学学报[J].2005,45(6):931-936.
[33]张素灵,李亦纲,曲国胜等.生命线地震工程的发展与前瞻[J].世界地震工程,2001,17(2):79-85.
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