基于BP神经网络的土石坝地震震害预测
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摘要
影响强震区土石坝震害的因素复杂,各影响因素也可能存在相互关联现象,两两之间为多模态且带噪声的非线性关系。利用人工神经网络具有高度容错、自学习、自组织分析复杂非线性问题的特点,结合40组国内外土石坝样本建立BP神经网络对其历史震害进行训练,使得土石坝震害与其影响因素之间的非线性关系得到较好的映射,进而建立基于BP神经网络的土石坝震害等级预测模型。实例验证表明,该BP网络能够对土石坝震害进行有效预测。
Factors that affect the earthquake disaster of earth-rockfill dam are very complex.These factors may be interrelated each other with multi-modal and non-linear noise relationship.Artificial neural network has characteristics of high fault-tolerant,self-learning,self-organization analysis and can be analyzed complex nonlinear problems.BP neural network model is established to train the historical earthquake disasters samples with 40 group data sets of earth-rockfill dam in the world.The non-linear relationship between earth-rockfill dam and its influence factors is reflected excellently and the seismic disaster levels prediction model of earth-rockfill dam is established successfully based on BP neural network.Example shows that the BP network can be used to predict earthquake disasters of earth-rockfill dam effectively.
Factors that affect the earthquake disaster of earth-rockfill dam are very complex.These factors may be interrelated each other with multi-modal and non-linear noise relationship.Artificial neural network has characteristics of high fault-tolerant,self-learning,self-organization analysis and can be analyzed complex nonlinear problems.BP neural network model is established to train the historical earthquake disasters samples with 40 group data sets of earth-rockfill dam in the world.The non-linear relationship between earth-rockfill dam and its influence factors is reflected excellently and the seismic disaster levels prediction model of earth-rockfill dam is established successfully based on BP neural network.Example shows that the BP network can be used to predict earthquake disasters of earth-rockfill dam effectively.
引文
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[15]Stefania Sica,Luca Pagano,Arezou Modaressi.In-fluence of Past Loading History on the Seismic Re-sponse of Earth Dams[J].Computers and Geotech-nics,2008,35(1):61-85.
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[18]陈靖南.唐山陡河水库土坝震害[J].人民长江,1991,22(2):37-42.
[19]顾淦臣.国内外土石坝重大事故剖析──对若干石坝重大事故的再认识(续)[J].水利水电科技进展,1997,17(2):16-25,53.
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[23]黄纪祯.地震引致边坡滑移之分析[D].台湾:国立台湾大学,2003.
[24]陈国兴,谢君斐,张克绪.土坝震害和抗震分析评述[J].世界地震工程,1994(3):24-33.
[25]张海军,鲍立新,罗京元.王家坎水库大坝工程地质评价与渗漏分析[J].东北水利水电,2007,25(3):69-70.
[26]Singh Raghvendra,Roy Debasis,Das Debatosh.ACorrelation for Permanent Earthquake-induced De-formation of Earth Embankments[J].EngineeringGeology,2007,90(3-4):174-185.
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[30]Nagayama Isao,Yamaguchi Yoshikazu,Sasaki Takashi.Damage to Dams due to Three Large Earthquakes Oc-curred in 2003,in Japan[A].Proceeding of the Thir-teenth Conference on Earthquake Engineering[C].2004:181-184.
[31]吴嘉宾.土石坝受震应变潜能法之整合研究[D].台湾:国立中央大学,1997.
[32]熊堃,何蕴龙,曹学兴.汶川地震对硗碛大坝影响分析[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2009,42(1):33-37.
[33]汝乃华,牛运光.大坝事故与安全.土石坝[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2001.
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[35]水利电力部科学技术司,水利水电科学研究院.国外混凝土面板堆石坝[M].北京:水利电力出版社,1988.
[36]飞思科技产品研发中心.神经网络理论与Matlab7实现[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2005.
[37]王旭,王宏,王文辉.人工神经元网络原理与应用[M].沈阳:东北大学出版社,2000.
[38]沈花玉,王兆霞,高成耀,等.BP神经网络隐含层单元数的确定[J].天津理工大学学报,2008,24(5):13-15.
[39]陈生水,霍家平,章为民.“5.12”汶川地震对紫坪铺混凝土面板坝的影响及原因分析[J].岩土工程学报,2008,30(6):795-801.
[40]王复来,郭俊仃.碧口土石坝与混凝土防渗墙在各运用期的应力与位移的分析[J].岩土工程学报,1984,6(6):1-17.
[2]郭明珠,任凤华,腾海文,等.大坝强震震害特征分析[J].土木工程学报,2003,36(11):106-109.
[3]常宝琦,梁纪彬.土坝的地震易损性和震害速评[J].华南地震,1994,14(3):46-56.
[4]赵剑明,汪闻韶.关于水利工程震害及抗震研究的几点思考[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2000,40(S1):91-95.
[5]Hagan T Martin,Demuth B Howard,Beale H Mark.Neural Network Design[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2002.
[6]蔡煜东,甘俊人,姚林声.人工神经网络在地震综合预报中的应用[J].地震学报,1993,15(2):257-260.
[7]常宝琦,梁纪彬.土坝的震害预测人工神经元网络方法的应用[J].华南地震,1998,18(1):70-74.
[8]郑广芳,陶夏新.用人工神经元网络方法建立地震烈度衰减关系[J].地震工程与工程振动,1993,13(1):60-66.
[9]水电水利规划设计总院.汶川地震灾区水电工程震损调查及工程抗震复核[R].北京:水电水利规划设计总院,2008.
[10]顾淦臣.土石坝地震工程[M].南京:河海大学出版社,1989.
[11]朱伯芳.1999年台湾921集集大地震中的水利水电工程[J].水力发电学报,2003(1):21-33.
[12]Singh Raghvendra,Roy Debasis,Jain K Sudhir.Anal-ysis of Earth Dams Affected by the 2001 Bhuj Earth-quake[J].Engineering Geology,2005,80(3-4):282-291.
[13]Sivakumar G L Babu,Srivastava Amit,Sahana V.A-nalysis of Stability of Earthen Dams in Kachchh Re-gion,Gujarat,India[J].Engineering Geology,2007,94(3-4):123-136.
[14]Wieland Martin.Earthquake Safety of Existing Damsfor Irrigation and Water Supply in Rural Areas[J].Geotechnical Engineering,2002,33(1):53-57.
[15]Stefania Sica,Luca Pagano,Arezou Modaressi.In-fluence of Past Loading History on the Seismic Re-sponse of Earth Dams[J].Computers and Geotech-nics,2008,35(1):61-85.
[16]张敬楼.日本兵库地震及水利工程震害综述[J].水利水电科技进展,1995,15(5):17-19.
[17]郭锡荣,王钟宁.大同阳高地震土坝震害[J].岩土工程学报,1992,14(3):85-89.
[18]陈靖南.唐山陡河水库土坝震害[J].人民长江,1991,22(2):37-42.
[19]顾淦臣.国内外土石坝重大事故剖析──对若干石坝重大事故的再认识(续)[J].水利水电科技进展,1997,17(2):16-25,53.
[20]韩国城,孔宪京.混凝土面板堆石坝抗震研究进展[J].大连理工大学学报,1996,36(6):708-720.
[21]郝敏,谢礼立,王家全.921台湾集集地震灾害最严重地区的烈度评定[J].世界地震工程,2006,22(4):22-26.
[22]张吉佐,张森源.坝工与隧道之初步检查[J].地工技术,2000,77:101-108.
[23]黄纪祯.地震引致边坡滑移之分析[D].台湾:国立台湾大学,2003.
[24]陈国兴,谢君斐,张克绪.土坝震害和抗震分析评述[J].世界地震工程,1994(3):24-33.
[25]张海军,鲍立新,罗京元.王家坎水库大坝工程地质评价与渗漏分析[J].东北水利水电,2007,25(3):69-70.
[26]Singh Raghvendra,Roy Debasis,Das Debatosh.ACorrelation for Permanent Earthquake-induced De-formation of Earth Embankments[J].EngineeringGeology,2007,90(3-4):174-185.
[27]Singh Raghvendra,Roy Debasis,Jain K Sudhir.In-vestigation of Liquefaction Failure in Earthen Damsduring Bhuj Earthquake[A].Proc.,Special Sessionon Seismic Aspect of Dam Design,5th InternationalR&D Conference of the Central Board of Irrigationand Power(CBIP)[C].Bangalore,India:40-48.
[28]库尔班.阿西木.地震对西克尔水库大坝工程的影响和抗震加固[J].大坝与安全,2006(6):64-67.
[29]郎兴学,汪洵波.浅析5.12汶川地震对硗碛大坝外部变形的影响[J].四川水力发电,2008,27(S):113-117.
[30]Nagayama Isao,Yamaguchi Yoshikazu,Sasaki Takashi.Damage to Dams due to Three Large Earthquakes Oc-curred in 2003,in Japan[A].Proceeding of the Thir-teenth Conference on Earthquake Engineering[C].2004:181-184.
[31]吴嘉宾.土石坝受震应变潜能法之整合研究[D].台湾:国立中央大学,1997.
[32]熊堃,何蕴龙,曹学兴.汶川地震对硗碛大坝影响分析[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2009,42(1):33-37.
[33]汝乃华,牛运光.大坝事故与安全.土石坝[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2001.
[34]日本电力土木技术协会.最新土石坝工程学(修订版)[M].陈慧远,徐关泉,李鸿俊等译.北京:水利电力出版社,1983.
[35]水利电力部科学技术司,水利水电科学研究院.国外混凝土面板堆石坝[M].北京:水利电力出版社,1988.
[36]飞思科技产品研发中心.神经网络理论与Matlab7实现[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2005.
[37]王旭,王宏,王文辉.人工神经元网络原理与应用[M].沈阳:东北大学出版社,2000.
[38]沈花玉,王兆霞,高成耀,等.BP神经网络隐含层单元数的确定[J].天津理工大学学报,2008,24(5):13-15.
[39]陈生水,霍家平,章为民.“5.12”汶川地震对紫坪铺混凝土面板坝的影响及原因分析[J].岩土工程学报,2008,30(6):795-801.
[40]王复来,郭俊仃.碧口土石坝与混凝土防渗墙在各运用期的应力与位移的分析[J].岩土工程学报,1984,6(6):1-17.
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