地震前天文时纬观测异常现象的研究进展
摘要
介绍了天文时间和纬度观测资料的残差在地震前出现短期异常波动现象的发现及多年来开展的相关研究的进展,分析了不同地区天文时纬仪器的时纬残差异常变化与其周围地区地震的关系及残差异常变化的特征.论述了地方铅垂线的震前异常变化造成的天文时纬残差的异常波动,以及天文时纬观测监测垂线变化的意义及对其开展深入研究的重要性,讨论了该现象发展成为有效的强地震短期前兆的可能性和深入该研究目前面临的情况和应当注意解决的问题.提出了研制新型高精度自动化天体测量仪器在地震多发区布设试验观测网,以深入发展该研究并优化观测及提取异常信息用于短期地震预测的方法等建议.
引文
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2Wyss M.Cannot earthquakes be predicted?Science,1997,278:487-488
3Knopoff L.Earthquake prediction is difficult but not impossible.Nature Debate on Earthquake Prediction,1999
4陈运泰.地震预测:回顾与展望.中国科学D辑:地球科学,2009,39:1633-1658
5郑大伟,周永宏.地球自转变化与全球地震活动关系的研究.地震学报,1995,17:25-30
6李致森,张国栋,张焕志,等.天文测时测纬的一种短时间异常与台站附近强震的对应关系.地球物理学报,1978,21:278-291
7张国栋.强震前地下水活动引起的垂线变化.地震学报,1981,3:152-159
8Swing J P.Transactions of the International Astronomical Union,Vol.XIXB:Proceeding of the Nineteenth General Assembly,Delhi,Kluwer Academic Publishers,1985.175
9Bergeron J.Transactions of the International Astronomical Union,Vol.XXIB:Proceeding of the Twenty-First General Assembly,Buenos Aires,Kluwer Academic Publishers,1991.209
10韩延本,胡辉,杜红荣.禄劝6.3级地震前云南天文台时纬残差的初步分析.科学通报,1986,32:1244-1246
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12胡辉,阚荣举,王锐,等.用时纬残差预测强震的初步结果.科学通报,1989,34:1520
13胡辉,李永生,王锐,等.用云台II型等高仪预测大地震的探讨.云南天文台台刊,1988,1:4-10
14李致森,韩延本,田静.天文时纬残差波动异常的一种可能的地球物理解释.中国科学院上海天文台年刊,1989,10:16-22
15Hu H,Kan R J,Wang R,et al.A method for predicting a strong earthquake by means of astrometric observations.Astron Astrophys,1989,224:321-322
16廖德春,郑大伟.江苏太仓五级地震与上海天文台测时异常.科学通报,1990,23:1838-1839
17韩延本.北京天文台Ⅱ型光电等高仪时纬残差异常与地震的相关性.科学通报,1992,12:1105-1108
18韩延本,张国栋,胡辉,等.组建云南天文时纬测震网的意义及可行性.地震研究,1994,17:1-6
19胡辉,阚荣举.时纬残差在地震预测中的应用.科学通报,1995,40:2014-2015
20张国栋,韩延本.天文测震的基本原理和方法:特大自然灾害预测的新途径和新方法.北京:科学出版社,2002.71-75
21廖德春,金文敬,郑大伟,等.1986～1991年间我国六架仪器的时纬观测分析.中国科学院上海天文台年刊,1994,15:28-33
22阚荣举,胡辉.云南及其周邻大地震与云南天文台时纬残差变化.中国地震,1995,11:299-309
23Li Z X.Measurements of interannual variation of the vertical at Jozefoslaw by astrometric and gravimetric observations.Astron Astro-phys,1998,129:353-355
24张国栋,韩延本,赵复垣.从天文观测提取地震前兆信息.地震学报,2002,24:75-81
25胡辉,李正心,李辉,等.云南垂线的年际变化——天体测量和重力测定资料的比较研究.自然灾害学报,2003,2:25-27
26Li Z X,Li H,Li Y F,et al.Non-tidal variation in the deflection of the vertical at Beijing observatory.J Geodesy,2005,78:588-593
27胡辉,苏有锦,付虹,等.大姚、普洱地震前云南天文台时纬残差异常.自然灾害学报,2007,16:106-110
28Han Y B,Hu H,Ma L H,et al.Application of astronomic time-latitude residuals in earthquake prediction.Earth Moon Planets,2007,100:125-135
29李正心,李辉.1987～1998年间唐山铅垂线变化及其与周围地震的关联.中国科学D辑:地球科学,2008,38:432-438
30Li Z X,Li H.Earthquake-related gravity field changes at Beijing-Tangshan gravimetric network during1987-1998.Stud Geophys Geodaet,2009,53:185-197
31李东明,金文敬,夏一飞.天体测量方法.北京:中国科学技术出版社,2006
32马宗晋.中国九大地震(1966～1976).北京:地震出版社,1982
33Chen Y T,Gu H D,Lu Z X.Variations of gravity before and after the Haicheng earthquake,1975,and the Tangshan earthquake,1976.Phys Earth Planet Inter,1979,18:330-338
34胡辉,韩延本,苏有锦,等.2008-2009年云台等高仪时纬残差的异常波动.天文研究与技术,2011,8:91-94
35Barlik M,Rogowski J B.Variations of the plumb-line direction obtained from astronomical and gravimetric observations.Prace Nauk Politech Warsz,1989,33:19-101
36顾功叙,郭宗汾,刘克人,等.中国京津唐张地区时间上连续的重力变化与地震的孕育和发生.科学通报,1997,18:1919-1930
37胡辉,李永生,王锐,等.云南天文台时纬残差与昆明周围强震.地球物理学报,1988,4:483-485
38高小其,许秋龙,王道,等.地下流体中强震源兆、场兆和强震远兆特征及其物理成因.地震,2002,22:81-88
39Hirt C.The digital zenith camera TZK2-D a modern high precision geodetic instrument for automatic geographic positioning in real time.In:Payne H E,Jedrzejewski R I,Hook R N,eds.Astronomical Data Analysis Software and Systems XII,ASP Conference Series,2003,295:156-159
40Hirt C,Bürki B,Somieski A,et al.Modern determination of vertical deflections using digital zenith cameras.J Survey Eng,2010,136:1-12
41Gerstbach G,Pichler H.A small CCD zenith camera(ZC-G1)-developed for rapid geoid monitoring in difficult projects.XIII Astro Conf Beograd,2002.1-6
2Wyss M.Cannot earthquakes be predicted?Science,1997,278:487-488
3Knopoff L.Earthquake prediction is difficult but not impossible.Nature Debate on Earthquake Prediction,1999
4陈运泰.地震预测:回顾与展望.中国科学D辑:地球科学,2009,39:1633-1658
5郑大伟,周永宏.地球自转变化与全球地震活动关系的研究.地震学报,1995,17:25-30
6李致森,张国栋,张焕志,等.天文测时测纬的一种短时间异常与台站附近强震的对应关系.地球物理学报,1978,21:278-291
7张国栋.强震前地下水活动引起的垂线变化.地震学报,1981,3:152-159
8Swing J P.Transactions of the International Astronomical Union,Vol.XIXB:Proceeding of the Nineteenth General Assembly,Delhi,Kluwer Academic Publishers,1985.175
9Bergeron J.Transactions of the International Astronomical Union,Vol.XXIB:Proceeding of the Twenty-First General Assembly,Buenos Aires,Kluwer Academic Publishers,1991.209
10韩延本,胡辉,杜红荣.禄劝6.3级地震前云南天文台时纬残差的初步分析.科学通报,1986,32:1244-1246
11李致森,张国栋.震前时纬残差异常的补充证据.见:李致森,高建国,编.地球动力学进展.北京:海洋出版社,1988.37-43
12胡辉,阚荣举,王锐,等.用时纬残差预测强震的初步结果.科学通报,1989,34:1520
13胡辉,李永生,王锐,等.用云台II型等高仪预测大地震的探讨.云南天文台台刊,1988,1:4-10
14李致森,韩延本,田静.天文时纬残差波动异常的一种可能的地球物理解释.中国科学院上海天文台年刊,1989,10:16-22
15Hu H,Kan R J,Wang R,et al.A method for predicting a strong earthquake by means of astrometric observations.Astron Astrophys,1989,224:321-322
16廖德春,郑大伟.江苏太仓五级地震与上海天文台测时异常.科学通报,1990,23:1838-1839
17韩延本.北京天文台Ⅱ型光电等高仪时纬残差异常与地震的相关性.科学通报,1992,12:1105-1108
18韩延本,张国栋,胡辉,等.组建云南天文时纬测震网的意义及可行性.地震研究,1994,17:1-6
19胡辉,阚荣举.时纬残差在地震预测中的应用.科学通报,1995,40:2014-2015
20张国栋,韩延本.天文测震的基本原理和方法:特大自然灾害预测的新途径和新方法.北京:科学出版社,2002.71-75
21廖德春,金文敬,郑大伟,等.1986～1991年间我国六架仪器的时纬观测分析.中国科学院上海天文台年刊,1994,15:28-33
22阚荣举,胡辉.云南及其周邻大地震与云南天文台时纬残差变化.中国地震,1995,11:299-309
23Li Z X.Measurements of interannual variation of the vertical at Jozefoslaw by astrometric and gravimetric observations.Astron Astro-phys,1998,129:353-355
24张国栋,韩延本,赵复垣.从天文观测提取地震前兆信息.地震学报,2002,24:75-81
25胡辉,李正心,李辉,等.云南垂线的年际变化——天体测量和重力测定资料的比较研究.自然灾害学报,2003,2:25-27
26Li Z X,Li H,Li Y F,et al.Non-tidal variation in the deflection of the vertical at Beijing observatory.J Geodesy,2005,78:588-593
27胡辉,苏有锦,付虹,等.大姚、普洱地震前云南天文台时纬残差异常.自然灾害学报,2007,16:106-110
28Han Y B,Hu H,Ma L H,et al.Application of astronomic time-latitude residuals in earthquake prediction.Earth Moon Planets,2007,100:125-135
29李正心,李辉.1987～1998年间唐山铅垂线变化及其与周围地震的关联.中国科学D辑:地球科学,2008,38:432-438
30Li Z X,Li H.Earthquake-related gravity field changes at Beijing-Tangshan gravimetric network during1987-1998.Stud Geophys Geodaet,2009,53:185-197
31李东明,金文敬,夏一飞.天体测量方法.北京:中国科学技术出版社,2006
32马宗晋.中国九大地震(1966～1976).北京:地震出版社,1982
33Chen Y T,Gu H D,Lu Z X.Variations of gravity before and after the Haicheng earthquake,1975,and the Tangshan earthquake,1976.Phys Earth Planet Inter,1979,18:330-338
34胡辉,韩延本,苏有锦,等.2008-2009年云台等高仪时纬残差的异常波动.天文研究与技术,2011,8:91-94
35Barlik M,Rogowski J B.Variations of the plumb-line direction obtained from astronomical and gravimetric observations.Prace Nauk Politech Warsz,1989,33:19-101
36顾功叙,郭宗汾,刘克人,等.中国京津唐张地区时间上连续的重力变化与地震的孕育和发生.科学通报,1997,18:1919-1930
37胡辉,李永生,王锐,等.云南天文台时纬残差与昆明周围强震.地球物理学报,1988,4:483-485
38高小其,许秋龙,王道,等.地下流体中强震源兆、场兆和强震远兆特征及其物理成因.地震,2002,22:81-88
39Hirt C.The digital zenith camera TZK2-D a modern high precision geodetic instrument for automatic geographic positioning in real time.In:Payne H E,Jedrzejewski R I,Hook R N,eds.Astronomical Data Analysis Software and Systems XII,ASP Conference Series,2003,295:156-159
40Hirt C,Bürki B,Somieski A,et al.Modern determination of vertical deflections using digital zenith cameras.J Survey Eng,2010,136:1-12
41Gerstbach G,Pichler H.A small CCD zenith camera(ZC-G1)-developed for rapid geoid monitoring in difficult projects.XIII Astro Conf Beograd,2002.1-6
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