基于区域地震活动频次对比的余震删除方法
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摘要
从尽可能科学地删除余震,又保留有价值的地震预测信息的目的出发,提出了一种既考虑地震序列特征,又基于主震后孕震区内的余震活动频次与区域地震活动正常时段频次相比的删除余震方法(简称SMRZ方法),编制了相应的计算程序。以西北地区发生的几次较大地震为例,对该文提出的SMRZ方法、广泛使用的K-K方法以及G-C方法的删除余震效果进行了对比研究。结果表明,与其他方法相比,笔者提出的方法识别余震时、空分布范围比较合理,同时保留了对未来地震有重要预测意义的前震,有较好的实际应用效果。
For the aim of deleting the aftershocks as scientific as possible and preserving the valuable information for earthquake prediction,a method of deleting the aftershocks,called SMRZ method in short,which not only considers the earthquake sequence features,but is based on the contrast between the aftershock activity frequencies in the seismogenic zones after main shocks and the regional seismic activity frequency during normal period also.And the corresponding computation program has been compiled.Taking several relatively large earthquakes occurred in Northwest region as the examples;the contrast study has been done on the effects of deleting aftershocks through comparison between the SMRZ method proposed in this paper,the K-K method widely in use at present and the G-C method.The results show that,comparing with other methods,the method proposed by authors is relatively rational in recognizing the temporal and spatial distribution ranges of aftershocks.At the same time,the foreshocks have been preserved which have important prediction meaning to future earthquakes.Its practical use effects are better.
For the aim of deleting the aftershocks as scientific as possible and preserving the valuable information for earthquake prediction,a method of deleting the aftershocks,called SMRZ method in short,which not only considers the earthquake sequence features,but is based on the contrast between the aftershock activity frequencies in the seismogenic zones after main shocks and the regional seismic activity frequency during normal period also.And the corresponding computation program has been compiled.Taking several relatively large earthquakes occurred in Northwest region as the examples;the contrast study has been done on the effects of deleting aftershocks through comparison between the SMRZ method proposed in this paper,the K-K method widely in use at present and the G-C method.The results show that,comparing with other methods,the method proposed by authors is relatively rational in recognizing the temporal and spatial distribution ranges of aftershocks.At the same time,the foreshocks have been preserved which have important prediction meaning to future earthquakes.Its practical use effects are better.
引文
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[13]于龙伟,李芳,卢良玉,等.1999年11月29日岫岩-海城5.6级地震成功预报的科学依据[J].东北地震研究,2000,16(2):14-26.
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①赵卫明等,不同孕震阶段及不同地震构造条件下地震活动统计分布特征,2003年。
[2]Console R,Gasparini C,Simoni B De,et al.Preambolo al Catalogo Sismico Nazionale I criteri di in-formazione del CSN[J].Pnnali Geofis,1979,32:37-77.
[3]Frohlich C,Davis S D.Identification of aftershocks of deep earthquakes by a new retios method[J].Geophys Res Let,1985,12:714-716.
[4]Keilis-Borok V I,Knopoff L.Bursts of aftershock of strong earthquakes[J].Nature,1980,238(P5744):259-263.
[5]Prozorov A G,Dziewonski A M.A method of studying variations in the clustering properties ofearthquakes[J].J geophys Res,1982,87:2 829-2 839.
[6]Reasenberg P.Second-order moment of central California seismicity 1969~1982[J].Geophys Res,1985,90:5 479-5 495.
[7]Shlien S,Toksoz M F.A statistical method of identifying dependent events and earthquake after-shocks[J].Earthquake Notes,1974,45(3):3-16.
[8]韩渭宾.地震活动性研究中资料可靠性及其他影响震兆异常识别的问题[J].四川地震,2002,104(3):1-8.
[9]吴开统,焦远碧,吕培苓,等.地震序列概论[M].北京:北京大学出版社,1999.118.
[10]张肇诚,罗兰格,李海华,等.中国震例(1976~1980)[M].北京:地震出版社,1990.133-144.
[11]张肇诚,罗兰格,李海华,等.中国震例(1966~1975)[M].北京:地震出版社,1988.88-96.
[12]陆远忠,陈章立,王碧泉,等.地震预报的地震学方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1985.111.
[13]于龙伟,李芳,卢良玉,等.1999年11月29日岫岩-海城5.6级地震成功预报的科学依据[J].东北地震研究,2000,16(2):14-26.
[14]郝伯林.分形与分维[J].科学,1985,38(1):9-17.
[15]郭增建,秦保燕.震源物理[M].北京:地震出版社,1979.
[16]李孟銮.巴音木仁6.2级地震的活动特征[J].西北地震学报,1979,2(3):14-17.
①赵卫明等,不同孕震阶段及不同地震构造条件下地震活动统计分布特征,2003年。
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