2004年12月26日印尼M_S8.9大地震对亚洲地震活动影响估计
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摘要
分析2004年12月26日印尼苏门答腊M8.9特大地震引起的区域应力场变动,对邻区其他主要潜在震源应变进程产生的影响,并进一步影响亚洲地震活动的格局。从应力转移机制出发,分析大地震沿印澳-欧亚板块边界、印度洋海岭和相邻小板块边界迁移的可能性。根据美国地质调查局全球台网目录分析了该大地震引起的诱发前震(远余震)图像,推测未来几年亚洲等相邻地区大地震发生概率较高的地区。其中包括喜马拉雅带中段和东端,兴都库什-贝加尔地带及印度洋等地区。这类地区涉及中国西藏仲巴、墨脱,新疆乌什、喀什,以及云南等地。
Analyzed by region stress field change of Sumatra M 8.9 large earthquake in Dec.26,2004,it exert an influence for other major potential focus strain process of adjacent regions,and further affect on Asia earthquake action pattern. From the mechanism of stress transfer,we analyzed the possibility what earthquake transport along India-Australia plate—Eurasia plate boundary、Indian-Ocean sea-mountain and the boundary of adjacent little plate. On the basis of ‘long-range aftershock’(induced foreshock)images by analyzed USGS seismic bulletin, we inferred some higher probability regions that there are great earthquake in Asia in the years to come. Himalayas zone and Hindu Kush—Baikal zone is included in the regions, what took place M 7.6 earthquake on Oct.8,2005. It took Pakistan Kashmir in grievous ruin. To this class of region belong Zhongba and Motuo in Tibet, Wushi and Kashi in Xingjiang, and Yunnan, and so on, in China.
Analyzed by region stress field change of Sumatra M 8.9 large earthquake in Dec.26,2004,it exert an influence for other major potential focus strain process of adjacent regions,and further affect on Asia earthquake action pattern. From the mechanism of stress transfer,we analyzed the possibility what earthquake transport along India-Australia plate—Eurasia plate boundary、Indian-Ocean sea-mountain and the boundary of adjacent little plate. On the basis of ‘long-range aftershock’(induced foreshock)images by analyzed USGS seismic bulletin, we inferred some higher probability regions that there are great earthquake in Asia in the years to come. Himalayas zone and Hindu Kush—Baikal zone is included in the regions, what took place M 7.6 earthquake on Oct.8,2005. It took Pakistan Kashmir in grievous ruin. To this class of region belong Zhongba and Motuo in Tibet, Wushi and Kashi in Xingjiang, and Yunnan, and so on, in China.
引文
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梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民.1993.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社
时振梁,赵荣国,王淑贞,王敬贤.1986.世界地震目录[M].北京:地图出版社
时振梁,张少泉,赵荣国,吴开统等.1990.地震工作手册[M].北京:地震出版社,104
赵根模,刘砚越,王大宏.2005.印尼苏门答腊—蒙古(1935~1957)地震迁移的回顾[J].国际地震动态,321:6~9
赵根模,姚兰予,马淑琴.1994.断层位错产生的应力场与地震危险区预测[J].地震学报,17(4):440~447
赵根模,刘喜兰.1987.诱发前震的物理机制和前兆意义[J].中国地震,增刊3:60~65
Lay Tand kanamori H.1981.An asperity model of large earthquake sequeinces[C].Earthquake Prediction.An InternationalReview,AGU,579~592
Mogi K.1968.Migration of seismic activity[J].B E R.Inst Univ Tokyo,46,53~74
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