台湾与长-南地震带中强地震活动的周期性与相关性研究

英文篇名：STUDY ON THE PERIODICITY AND CORRELATION OF THE MODERATE-STRONG EARTHQUAKE FOR THE TAIWAN AND CHANG-NAN SEISMIC BELT
中文刊名：东北地震研究
英文刊名：Seismological Research of Northeast China
作者：夏成明 ; 张恩立 ; 李昊
英文作者：XIA Cheng-ming ; ZHANG En-li ; LI Hao(Earthquake Administration of Chuzhou Municipclity ; Anhui Chuzhou 239000 ; China)
中文关键词：板块运动 ; 极值理论 ; 相关分析 ; 复发周期 ; 概率阈值
英文关键词：plate movement ; extreme value theory ; correlation analysis ; recurrence period ; probability threshold
出版日期：2008-03-15
机构：滁州市地震局,滁州市地震局,滁州市地震局安徽滁州239000,安徽滁州239000,安徽滁州239000
年：2008
期：01
出版单位：东北地震研究

摘要

依据板块运动的学说,在分析台湾与长-南(长江中下游-南黄海,下同)地震带地质构造内在联系的基础上,运用极值理论对1970年至2005年间台湾和长-南地震带的地震分别进行统计研究。得出了相应震级地震的复发周期T(M)和发震概率(P)及其概率阈值(Po)。通过对T(M)的同比分析,发现两地中强地震存在着较好的相关性。用以上研究结果对长-南地震带5级以上地震的危险性、发震时间和地震强度进行了综合判定,收到了较好的预报效能。
According to the plate theory and on the basis of the analysis on the rellation of the geological structure between the Taiwan block and Changjiang River-Nanhuanghai Sea(the middle-lower reaches of the Changjiang River,the same bellow),the earthquakes on the Taiwan and Chang-Nan earthquake belt from 1970 to 2005 were strdied statistically by the extreme value theory.The recurrence period T(M),recurrence probability(P)and probability threshold value(Po).The fairly good correlations of the moderate-strong earthquakes in these two area were found by the contrast analysis to T(M).The considerable effects were obtained with the above mentioned reseach results for the risk,time and strength of ML≥5.0 earthquake on the Chang-Nan seismic belt.

引文

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