雅砻江八通滑坡地质特征及风险评价
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摘要
为准确把握水库运营期间滑坡体的稳定状态,以雅砻江某滑坡为例,详细分析了其基本特征、地质条件及成因机制,分析判断其当前所处状态,得到该滑坡体是原始岩体先倾倒变形后沿倾倒变形岩体与未变形岩体之间的软弱层产生拉裂—蠕滑—沉积固结长期发展的结果。通过工程对比、参数反演和室内土工试验确定计算模型所需参数,根据现场实际调查确定滑坡体剖面,利用Geo-Slope软件建立模型并对该滑坡进行风险评价。针对水库运营及滑坡体实际情况,考虑到蓄水作用和地震动力效应确定了7种工况,并对这7种工况进行计算分析,得到滑坡体在各种工况下的失稳概率。计算结果表明该滑坡整体稳定性较好,只是在地震蓄水工况下失稳概率较大,处于不稳定状态。
In order to find out the stability state of the landslide during the water-filling of reservoir,this study takes landslide of Yalong River as an example.Based on field investigation and analysis on geological condition and genesis of the landslide,it is concluded that the landslide is due to the continual development of drawing breakage,slow sliding,depositing and concreting of soft-layer.By engineering contrasting,parameter analyzing,experiment to determine parameters,this study builds the model utilizing Geo-Slope software according to the model used by ascertain section,and then assesses the risk.Considering the reality of the reservoir and the landslide,as well as water effect and earthquake effect,this paper defines and calculates 7 working condition,and then gets the destroy probability in each condition.The results indicate that the landslide is stable except for the condition of earthquake and water-filling.
In order to find out the stability state of the landslide during the water-filling of reservoir,this study takes landslide of Yalong River as an example.Based on field investigation and analysis on geological condition and genesis of the landslide,it is concluded that the landslide is due to the continual development of drawing breakage,slow sliding,depositing and concreting of soft-layer.By engineering contrasting,parameter analyzing,experiment to determine parameters,this study builds the model utilizing Geo-Slope software according to the model used by ascertain section,and then assesses the risk.Considering the reality of the reservoir and the landslide,as well as water effect and earthquake effect,this paper defines and calculates 7 working condition,and then gets the destroy probability in each condition.The results indicate that the landslide is stable except for the condition of earthquake and water-filling.
引文
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[3]SCHUSTER R L,LYNNMH·Socioeconomic impacts of landslides in the Western Hemisphere[R]·Reston,VA,USA:United States Geological Survey,2001·
[4]黄润秋·20世纪以来中国的大型滑坡及其发生机制[J]·岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(3):433～454·
[5]徐湘涛,汪家林,黄润秋·紫坪铺水利枢纽工程左岸坝前堆积体变形破坏机制研究[J]·岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(增1):2642～2650·
[6]刘新喜,夏元友,练操,等·库水位骤降时的滑坡稳定性评价方法研究[J]·岩土力学,2005,26(9):1427～1431·
[7]钟式范,马水山,张保军·隔河岩水利枢纽水库蓄水对岸坡稳定性的影响[J]·岩石力学与工程学报,1996,15(3):282～288·
[8]鲍叶静,高孟潭,姜慧·地震诱发滑坡的概率分析[J]·岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(1):60～70·
[9]陈蜀俊,党晓英,曾心传,等·奉节长江大桥北岸边坡在地震荷载作用下的稳定性分析[J]·岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(4):657～662·
[10]毛彦龙,胡广韬,毛新虎,等·地震滑坡启程剧动的机制研究及离散元模拟[J]·工程地质学报,2001,9(1):74～80·
[11]秦凯旭,冯文凯,郎秋玲·Geo-Slope软件在某滑坡稳定性计算中的应用[J]·灾害学,2007,22(2):21～24·
[12]盛骤,谢式千,潘承毅·概率论与数理统计[M]·北京:高等教育出版社,1989·
[13]高大钊·土力学可靠原理[M]·北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1989·
[14]王俊杰,陈爱玖,姬凤玲,等·岩土参数的概率分布拟合及Bayes方法优化[J]·华北水利水电学院学报,2004,25(2):51～54·
[15]徐建平,胡厚田,张安松,等·边坡岩体物理力学参数的统计特征研究[J]·岩石力学与工程学报,1999,18(4):382～386·
[16]尹小涛,王水林·基于可靠度理论的滑坡稳定性及其影响因素分析[J]·岩土力学,2008,29(6):1551～1556·
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