地震危险性分析方法探讨
摘要
东日本大地震发生之后,我国对地震事件对核电站的影响倍加重视,决定开展地震PSA研究,其中危险性分析是地震PSA研究中最重要的工作之一。本文介绍了地震危险性分析方法的四个步骤:震源评价、地震重现、衰减关系确定以及危险性曲线的确定方法;分析了不确定性分析方法和一致危险性谱,探讨了危险性分析中存在的问题。危险性分析方法是成熟的,在分析过程中存在较大的不确定性,需正确看待和理解。
引文
[1]Cornell,C.A.(1968),“Engineering SeismicRisk Analysis,”Bulletin of the Seismological Societyof America,Vol.58,pp.1583-1606.
[2]ANS IEEE“PRA Procedures Guide:A Guideto the Performance of Probabilistic Risk Assessmentsfor Nuclear Power Plants”NUREG/CR 2300January 1983.
[3]EPRI(2003)“Seismic Probabilistic RiskAssessment Implementation Guide,”EPRI 1002989,Electric Power Research Institute(EPRI),Palo Alto,California,December 2003.
[4]Gutenberg,B.,and C.F.Richter,1942."Earthquake Magnitude,Intensity,Energy andAcceleration,"Bulletin of the Seismological Society ofAmerica,Vol.32,pp.163-191.
[5]Kramer,S.L.(1996),“GeotechnicalEarthquake Engineering,”Prentice-Hall,Inc.,NewJersey,1996.
[6]USGS(2008),Documentation for the 2008Update of the United States National Seismic HazardMaps
[7]REI(2001),“Technical Basis for Revisionof Regulatory Guidance on Design Ground Motions:Hazard-and Risk-Consistent Ground MotionGuidelines,”NUREG/CR-6728,USNRC,RiskEngineering,Inc.,October 2001.
[8]EPRI(1989),Probabilistic Hazard Evaluation atNuclear Plant Sites in the Central and Eastern UnitedStates,Resolution of the Charleston Issue,EPRI,Palo Alto,CA:April 1989.NP-6395-D
[9]NEA(1997),”State-of-the-Art Report onthe Current Status of Methodologies for SeismicPSA”,NEA/CSNI(97)22,Committee on the Safetyof Nuclear Installations,OECD Nuclear EnergyAgency,March 1998
[10]LLNL(1989),“Seismic Hazard Characterizationof 69 Nuclear Plant Sites East of the RockyMountains,”NUREG/CR-5250,Lawrence LivermoreNational Laboratory,January 1989.
[11]SSHAC(1997),“Recommendations forProbabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis:Guidance onUncertainty and Use of Experts,”NUREG/CR-6372,USNRC,Senior Seismic Hazard AnalysisCommittee,1997.
[2]ANS IEEE“PRA Procedures Guide:A Guideto the Performance of Probabilistic Risk Assessmentsfor Nuclear Power Plants”NUREG/CR 2300January 1983.
[3]EPRI(2003)“Seismic Probabilistic RiskAssessment Implementation Guide,”EPRI 1002989,Electric Power Research Institute(EPRI),Palo Alto,California,December 2003.
[4]Gutenberg,B.,and C.F.Richter,1942."Earthquake Magnitude,Intensity,Energy andAcceleration,"Bulletin of the Seismological Society ofAmerica,Vol.32,pp.163-191.
[5]Kramer,S.L.(1996),“GeotechnicalEarthquake Engineering,”Prentice-Hall,Inc.,NewJersey,1996.
[6]USGS(2008),Documentation for the 2008Update of the United States National Seismic HazardMaps
[7]REI(2001),“Technical Basis for Revisionof Regulatory Guidance on Design Ground Motions:Hazard-and Risk-Consistent Ground MotionGuidelines,”NUREG/CR-6728,USNRC,RiskEngineering,Inc.,October 2001.
[8]EPRI(1989),Probabilistic Hazard Evaluation atNuclear Plant Sites in the Central and Eastern UnitedStates,Resolution of the Charleston Issue,EPRI,Palo Alto,CA:April 1989.NP-6395-D
[9]NEA(1997),”State-of-the-Art Report onthe Current Status of Methodologies for SeismicPSA”,NEA/CSNI(97)22,Committee on the Safetyof Nuclear Installations,OECD Nuclear EnergyAgency,March 1998
[10]LLNL(1989),“Seismic Hazard Characterizationof 69 Nuclear Plant Sites East of the RockyMountains,”NUREG/CR-5250,Lawrence LivermoreNational Laboratory,January 1989.
[11]SSHAC(1997),“Recommendations forProbabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis:Guidance onUncertainty and Use of Experts,”NUREG/CR-6372,USNRC,Senior Seismic Hazard AnalysisCommittee,1997.
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