层次分析法(AHP)在尾矿库安全运行分析中的应用
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摘要
尾矿库是用于堆存金属非金属矿山进行矿石选别后排出尾矿的场所,是一种高势能的人造泥石流源,一旦发生事故将会严重威胁到库区周边环境和下游居民的生命及财产安全。考虑到我国小型尾矿库数量多、安全度水平低以及尾矿库发生事故的复杂性、多样性及不确定性等特点,根据影响尾矿库安全运行的因素建立层次结构模型,运用Delphi法构造相关因素的各层次判断矩阵,应用定性与定量相结合的层次分析法进行分析,最后确定出各影响因素的权重并进行总排序。结果表明,在尾矿库运行期间排洪系统对其整体安全影响最大,其次为筑坝堆存系统、尾矿库管理与维护、回水系统和尾矿输送系统。该研究结果可以为相关单位制定合理的安全防范措施提供必要的参考价值,从而有针对性的消除各种事故隐患,提高安全管理水平,确保尾矿库的安全运行。
Tailings pond is a place where is used for depositing tailings of the metal and nonmetal mine after the selecting process.It is one of the high potential energy and human-caused mud-rock flows.It will bring huge harms to the district peripheral environment and downstream inhabitant's life and property when tailings pond’s paroxysmal accidents happen.In view of the quantity of small and medium-sized tailings pond,the lower safety management level,furthermore,diversified and uncertain causes during accidents,the paper has made hierarchical structure model according to the influence factors of tailings pond safety operation.Using Delphi method to construct correlation factor’s judgment matrix,the combination of qualitative and quantitative analytic hierarchy process(AHP) is applied;and finally can be obtained in the weight of coefficient and arrayed in order.The analysis shows that the biggest influence factor is the expel-flood system.the second is the embankment system,manage or maintenance,back-water and transportation system.Therefore the related unit may depend on the sequences of the facility to have constituted respectively guard measure,which could supply guiding sense and reference value so as to eliminate each kind of accident hidden dangers and enhance the management level and ensure the tailings pond safety operation.
Tailings pond is a place where is used for depositing tailings of the metal and nonmetal mine after the selecting process.It is one of the high potential energy and human-caused mud-rock flows.It will bring huge harms to the district peripheral environment and downstream inhabitant's life and property when tailings pond’s paroxysmal accidents happen.In view of the quantity of small and medium-sized tailings pond,the lower safety management level,furthermore,diversified and uncertain causes during accidents,the paper has made hierarchical structure model according to the influence factors of tailings pond safety operation.Using Delphi method to construct correlation factor’s judgment matrix,the combination of qualitative and quantitative analytic hierarchy process(AHP) is applied;and finally can be obtained in the weight of coefficient and arrayed in order.The analysis shows that the biggest influence factor is the expel-flood system.the second is the embankment system,manage or maintenance,back-water and transportation system.Therefore the related unit may depend on the sequences of the facility to have constituted respectively guard measure,which could supply guiding sense and reference value so as to eliminate each kind of accident hidden dangers and enhance the management level and ensure the tailings pond safety operation.
引文
[1]王凤江.国外尾矿坝事故调查分析[J].金属矿山,2004,8(增刊):49-52.
[2]国家安全生产监督管理总局.2007年年全国非煤矿山事故分析[EB/OL].http://www.Chinasafety.gov.cn
[3]KEMPER T,SOMMER S.Estimate of heavy metalcontamination in soils after a mining accident usingreflectance spectroscopy[J].Environmental Science andTechnology,2002,36(12):2 742-7 471.
[4]李明,胡乃联,于芳,等.ANSYS软件在尾矿坝稳定性分析中的应用研究[J].金属矿山,2005,(8):56-59.
[5]潘建平,孔宪京,邹德高.尾矿坝地震液化稳定的简化分析[J].水利学报,2006,37(10):1 224-1 229.
[6]田文旗,薛剑光.尾矿库安全技术与管理[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2006.
[7]王涛,郭振世.尾矿库的危险有害因素辨识及安全管理措施[J].黄金,2008,29(4):51-55.
[8]田军,张朋柱,王刊良,等.基于德尔菲法的专家意见集成模型研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2004,(1):57-62,69.
[9]胡保生,彭勤科.系统工程原理与应用[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2007.
[2]国家安全生产监督管理总局.2007年年全国非煤矿山事故分析[EB/OL].http://www.Chinasafety.gov.cn
[3]KEMPER T,SOMMER S.Estimate of heavy metalcontamination in soils after a mining accident usingreflectance spectroscopy[J].Environmental Science andTechnology,2002,36(12):2 742-7 471.
[4]李明,胡乃联,于芳,等.ANSYS软件在尾矿坝稳定性分析中的应用研究[J].金属矿山,2005,(8):56-59.
[5]潘建平,孔宪京,邹德高.尾矿坝地震液化稳定的简化分析[J].水利学报,2006,37(10):1 224-1 229.
[6]田文旗,薛剑光.尾矿库安全技术与管理[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2006.
[7]王涛,郭振世.尾矿库的危险有害因素辨识及安全管理措施[J].黄金,2008,29(4):51-55.
[8]田军,张朋柱,王刊良,等.基于德尔菲法的专家意见集成模型研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2004,(1):57-62,69.
[9]胡保生,彭勤科.系统工程原理与应用[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2007.
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