The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios—Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation

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• 作者：Sarah. L. M ; er ; Alice Bows ; Kevin. L. Anderson ; Simon Shackley ; Paolo Agnolucci ; Paul Ekins
• 关键词：Energy scenarios ; Backcasting ; UK
• 刊名：Energy Policy
• 出版年：2008
• 出版时间：October 2008
• 年：2008
• 卷：36
• 期：10
• 页码：3754-3763
• 全文大小：290 K

文摘

The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios project has outlined alternative pathways whereby a 60 % reduction in CO₂ emissions from 1990 levels by 2050, a goal adopted by the UK Government, can be achieved. This paper, Part I of a two part paper, describes the methodology used to develop the scenarios and outlines the motivations for the project. The study utilised a backcasting approach, applied in three phases. In phase one, a set of credible and consistent end-points that described a substantially decarbonised energy system in 2050 were generated and reviewed by stakeholders. In phase two, pathways were developed to achieve the transition to the desired end-point. The impacts of the scenarios were assessed in phase three, by means of a deliberative multi-criteria assessment framework. The scenarios to emerge from this process are elaborated in Part II, and conclusions drawn in relation to the feasibility of achieving the 60 % target.