Combining scenario workshops with modeling to assess future irrigation water demands

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• 作者：Jean-Daniel Rinaudo ; Laure Maton ; Isabelle Terrason ; S¨¦bastien Chazot ; Audrey Richard-Ferroudji ; Yvan Caballero
• 关键词：Foresight ; Planning ; Global change ; Uncertainty ; France
• 刊名：Agricultural Water Management
• 出版年：2013
• 出版时间：December, 2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：130
• 期：Complete
• 页码：103-112
• 全文大小：1016 K

文摘

We discuss methodological issues related to the development of long term future agricultural water demand scenarios. We present the results of original research which combines the use of scenario workshops with quantitative crop water requirement modeling approaches. Using a Southern France case study, we describe four scenarios, debated with farmers and stakeholders during workshops and evaluated in terms of total water demand. Results suggest that socio-economic evolution could lead to a 40 % increase of irrigation water demand. From a methodological perspective, the research highlights the mutual benefits for both policy makers and scientists of involving stakeholders in the development of scenarios, using both qualitative storylines and quantitative modeling tools.