Sustainable energy development scenario forecasting and energy saving policy analysis of China

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• 作者：Jianjun Wang^a ; ^{wangjianjunhd@gmail.com" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Li Li^b ; ^{lilinw2001@126.com" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author}
• 关键词：Renewable energy ; STRIPAT ; Sustainability development ; Scenario forecasting
• 刊名：Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：May 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：58
• 期：Complete
• 页码：718-724
• 全文大小：685 K

文摘

The development of renewable energy, which is an important way to solve the environmental protection, has now become a research focus around the world. As a developing country with rapid growth, China gains the rapid development of economy, but the environmental pollution is becoming increasingly serious in recent years. Electricity industry plays an important role for energy-saving and emission-reduction in China, in order to reduce the environment pollution, it needs to consider how the electricity consumption affects the carbon emissions. In this paper, a stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STRIPAT) model was built, which estimates the relationship between the carbon emissions, population, GDP per capita, electricity consumption and energy consumption. It found that population, GDP per capita and the ratio of electricity consumption in energy consumption are change 1%, the carbon emissions will change 1.207%, 0.901% and −1.188% respectively. Based on the relationship, there electricity energy development scenarios were assumed and analyzed, and it found that the way to reduce carbon emissions should consider improving technical ability, which should accounting for improving the ratio of electricity power ratio in the energy consumption, improving the efficiency of using fossil energy and the development of renewable energy.