Near-miss events, risk messages, and decision making

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• 作者：Robin L. Dillon ; Catherine H. Tinsley
• 关键词：Near ; misses ; Risk perception ; Hazard warnings ; Natural disasters
• 刊名：Environment Systems and Decisions
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：March 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：36
• 期：1
• 页码：34-44
• 全文大小：397 KB
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• 作者单位：Robin L. Dillon (1)
  Catherine H. Tinsley (1)
  
  1. McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA
  
• 刊物类别：Environment, general; Environmental Management; Sustainable Development; Environmental Engineering/B
• 刊物主题：Environment, general; Environmental Management; Sustainable Development; Environmental Engineering/Biotechnology; Environmental Economics;
• 出版者：Springer US
• ISSN：2194-5411

文摘

Decades of research have sought to understand how disaster preparedness decisions are made. We believe one understudied factor is the impact of near-miss events. A near-miss occurs when an event (such as a hurricane or terrorist attack) has some non-trivial probability of ending in disaster (loss of life, property damage), but the negative outcome is avoided largely by chance (e.g., at the last minute, the storm dissipates or the bomb fails to detonate). In the first of two experiments, we study reactions to a hurricane threat when participants are told about prior near-miss events. We find that people with information about a prior near-miss event that has no negative consequences are less likely to take protective measures than those with either no information or information about a prior near-miss event that has salient negative information. Similar results have been shown in prior research, but we seek to understand people’s reasoning for the different reactions. We examine the role of an individual’s risk propensity and general level of optimism as possible explanatory variables for the “near-miss” effect. We find risk propensity to be stable across conditions, whereas general optimism is influenced by the type of prior near-miss information, so that optimism mediates how near-miss information impacts protective decisions. People who experience a potentially hazardous near-miss but escape without obvious cues of damage will feel more optimistic and take less protective action. In the second study, we test messages about the hazard’s risk and examine the impact of these messages to offset the influence of near-misses. We end by discussing the implications of near-misses for risk communication.