Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario

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• 作者：Salvatore Pascale ; Valerio Lucarini ; Xue Feng ; Amilcare Porporato…
• 关键词：Rainfall seasonality indicators ; CMIP5 models ; Representative concentration pathways ; Drought index ; Monsoons
• 刊名：Climate Dynamics
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：February 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：46
• 期：3-4
• 页码：1331-1350
• 全文大小：21,609 KB
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• 作者单位：Salvatore Pascale (1) (5)
  Valerio Lucarini (1) (2) (3)
  Xue Feng (4)
  Amilcare Porporato (4)
  Shabeh ul Hasson (1)
  
  1. Klima Campus, Meteorologisches Institut, Grindelberg 5, 20144, Hamburg, Germany
  5. California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, 91125, USA
  2. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading, Reading, UK
  3. Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading, Reading, UK
  4. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708, USA
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Meteorology and Climatology
  Oceanography
  
• 出版者：Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
• ISSN：1432-0894

文摘

In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models contributing to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to quantify the concentration of annual rainfall and the number of dry months and to build a monsoon dimensionless seasonality index (DSI). The RE is projected to increase, with high inter-model agreement over Mediterranean-type regions—southern Europe, northern Africa and southern Australia—and areas of South and Central America, implying an increase in the number of dry days up to 1 month by the end of the twenty-first century. Positive RE changes are also projected over the monsoon regions of southern Africa and North America, South America. These trends are consistent with a shortening of the wet season associated with a more prolonged pre-monsoonal dry period. The extent of the global monsoon region, characterized by large DSI, is projected to remain substantially unaltered. Centroid analysis shows that most of CMIP5 projections suggest that the monsoonal annual rainfall distribution is expected to change from early to late in the course of the hydrological year by the end of the twenty-first century and particularly after year 2050. This trend is particularly evident over northern Africa, southern Africa and western Mexico, where more than \(90\,\%\) of the models project a delay of the rainfall centroid from a few days up to 2 weeks. Over the remaining monsoonal regions, there is little inter-model agreement in terms of centroid changes. Keywords Rainfall seasonality indicators CMIP5 models Representative concentration pathways Drought index Monsoons