Probabilistic landslide risk assessment of a historic and cultural site on the north slope of Lishan Mountain, Xian, China

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• 作者：Yong Hong ; Guangming Yu ; Keqiang He
• 关键词：Loess ; Landslide ; Probability ; Stability ; Rainfall
• 刊名：Environmental Earth Sciences
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：April 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：75
• 期：8
• 全文大小：3,414 KB
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• 作者单位：Yong Hong (1) (2)
  Guangming Yu (1) (2)
  Keqiang He (1) (2)
  
  1. School of Civil Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Fushun Road No.11, Qingdao, 266033, People’s Republic of China
  2. Collaborative Innovation Center of Engineering Construction and Safety in Shandong Blue Economic Zone, Qingdao, 266033, People’s Republic of China
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：None Assigned
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1866-6299

文摘

This paper introduces the statistical methods and application for the quantitative analysis of a site-specific landslide risk on the north slope of Lishan Mountain which is regarded being in an active state that could become a disastrous loess landslide. Based on the theory of probability statistics (Monte Carlo statistical methods) and the slope failure mechanical model, the overall failure probability and the local failure probabilities of the Lishan landslide were calculated. The results of the failure probability and stability analysis showed that the northern slope of Lishan Mountain is highly prone to lose stability during seasonal intense rainfall, whereas it is stable but still exhibits failure probability under arid conditions. The analysis of the safety margin and local failure probability evidenced that the upper part of the slope is less stable than the lower part. Under the intense rainfall condition, the local failure probability and hazard of local unstable failure of the slope will increase. According to the calculation results, it is deduced that the landslide on the north of Lishan Mountain will be a gradual process evolving from the local slope failure to an overall unstable failure.