摘要
In this study, we take the 0 6 h probabilistie quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) as an example to illustrate how to 'evaluate the economic value (EV) of ensemble probabilistic forecasts (EPFs) and offer an example for users to understand how to use the EPFs to optimize their decision making.The PQPFs are generated from the ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) operated at the Central weather bureau (CWB) in Taiwan.In the EV analysis, it is assumed that users' cost and loss are explicitly known.Unfortunately, information of users' cost or loss is sometimes implicitly known.For example, farmers may wonder whether they should harvest their crops before the coming of a typhoon accompanied by heavy rainfall.Compared with normal harvesting, the action of harvesting in advance does not seem to need any cost; however, it may lead to a hidden loss since unripe crops are sold at a lower price.Furthermore, the farmers may also wonder what percentage (F, 0