基于云模型与模糊Petri网的电力市场潜在危害行为识别
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摘要
针对电力市场中存在潜在危害性交易行为难以被识别、管控的问题,提出基于云模型与模糊Petri网的电力市场潜在危害行为识别方法,在交易过程中对潜在危害行为进行实时预警。将云模型与模糊Petri网应用于模式识别中,有效解决了潜在危害行为难以量化识别的问题,也克服了一般识别方法不易理解的缺陷。首先,设计潜在危害行为识别的一般框架与步骤;其次,阐述通过逆向云发生器与根据专家描述的两种特征云的构建方法;同时,设计潜在危害行为识别的模糊Petri网网络结构与识别算法;最后,以江西省月度竞价交易市场为背景,采用真实交易数据进行算例分析。算例分析结果表明:所设计的方法给出的结果与专家分析得出的结果以及实际的数据高度一致,验证了方法的有效性。
To solve the problem of identification and control of potential harmful transactions in electricity market,a method for identifying potential harmful behaviors based on the cloud model and the fuzzy Petri net is proposed to realize real-time warning of potential hazards in the transaction process.The cloud model and the fuzzy Petri net are applied to pattern recognition,which effectively solves the problem that the potential hazard behavior is difficult to quantify,and overcomes the defects that the general recognition method is not easy to understand.Firstly,ageneral framework and procedure for identifying potential harmful behaviors is designed.Secondly,two methods of building feature cloud based on reverse cloud generator and expert description are described.Meanwhile,a fuzzy Petri net structure and recognition algorithm for potential harmful behaviors is designed.Finally,an example is made and analyzed by using the real transaction data of monthly auction market in Jiangxi Province,which shows the results given by the proposed method are highly consistent with the results obtained by artificial analysis and actual data.
To solve the problem of identification and control of potential harmful transactions in electricity market,a method for identifying potential harmful behaviors based on the cloud model and the fuzzy Petri net is proposed to realize real-time warning of potential hazards in the transaction process.The cloud model and the fuzzy Petri net are applied to pattern recognition,which effectively solves the problem that the potential hazard behavior is difficult to quantify,and overcomes the defects that the general recognition method is not easy to understand.Firstly,ageneral framework and procedure for identifying potential harmful behaviors is designed.Secondly,two methods of building feature cloud based on reverse cloud generator and expert description are described.Meanwhile,a fuzzy Petri net structure and recognition algorithm for potential harmful behaviors is designed.Finally,an example is made and analyzed by using the real transaction data of monthly auction market in Jiangxi Province,which shows the results given by the proposed method are highly consistent with the results obtained by artificial analysis and actual data.
引文
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[12]宋人杰,丁江林,白丽,等.基于合作博弈法和梯形云模型的配电网模糊综合评价[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(14):1-8.SONG Renjie,DING Jianglin,BAI Li,et al.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of distribution network based on cooperative game theory and trapezoidal cloud model[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(14):1-8.
[13]王雁凌,张雪佼,阎敬民.基于变权灰云模型的风电场并网技术性综合评价[J].电网技术,2013,37(12):3546-3551.WANG Yanling,ZHANG Xuejiao,YAN Jingmin.Weightvarying gray cloud model based comprehensive evaluation on technical performance of overall grid-integration of wind farm[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(12):3546-3551.
[14]CHEN S M.Weighted fuzzy reasoning using weighted fuzzy Petri nets[J].IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering,2002,14(2):386-397.
[15]荆朝霞,朱继松.月度电量集中竞价市场规则的仿真实验分析[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(24):42-48.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170615022.JING Zhaoxia,ZHU Jisong.Simulation experiment analysis on market rules for monthly centralized bidding[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(24):42-48.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170615022.
[16]马子明,钟海旺,李竹,等.美国电力市场信息披露体系及其对中国的启示[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(24):49-57.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170918005.MA Ziming,ZHONG Haiwang,LI Zhu,et al.Information disclosure system in American electricity market and its enlightenment for China[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(24):49-57.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170918005.
[17]国家能源局湖南监管办公室,湖南省发展和改革委员会,湖南省经济和信息化委员会,湖南省能源局.湖南省电力中长期交易实施细则(征求意见稿)[EB/OL].[2018-05-15].https://pmos.hn.sgcc.com.cn/pmos/index/infoList.jsp?itemid=215000.Hunan Energy Regulatory Office of National Energy Administration,Development and Reform Commission of Hunan Province,Hunan Economic and Information Technology Commission,Hunan Energy Administration.Implementation rules for medium-to-long term trading in Hunan Province(draft)[EB/OL].[2018-05-15].https://pmos.hn.sgcc.com.cn/pm os/index/infoList.jsp?itemid=215000.
[18]广东省经济和信息化委员会,国家能源局南方监管局.关于明确2016年售电公司参与直接交易有关事项的通知[EB/OL].[2018-05-15].http://shupeidian.bjx.co m.cn/html/20160324/718959.shtml.Guangdong Economic and Information Technology Commission,South China Energy Regulation Bureau of National Energy Administration.Notice on clarifying matters relating to the participation of direct-sale companies in direct sales in 2016[EB/OL].[2018-05-15].http://shupeidian.bjx.com.cn/html/20160324/718959.shtml.
[19]杨强,蔡华祥,严明辉,等.基于激励相容与深度博弈的云南电力市场机制设计及应用[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(24):27-34.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170605022.YANG Qiang,CAI Huaxiang,YAN Minghui,et al.Design and application of electricity market mechanism for Yunnan based on theory of incentive compatibility and game in depth[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(24):27-34.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170605022.
[20]昆明电力交易中心有限责任公司.云南电力市场交易信用保证管理办法[EB/OL].[2018-05-15].https://www.kmpex.com/web/kmdljyzx/viewarticle?groupId=14081&articleId=15a1f97a-a04a-4ddd-a2e9-bf8337e1e289.Kunming Power Exchange Center.Trading credit guarantee management measures of Yunnan electric power market[EB/OL].[2018-05-15].https://www.kmpex.com/web/kmdljyzx/viewarticle?groupId=14081&articleId=15a1f97aa04a-4ddd-a2e9-bf8337e1e289.
[2]国家发展和改革委员会,国家能源局.电力中长期交易规则(试行)[EB/OL].[2018-05-15].http://yxj.ndrc.gov.cn/zttp/jdjjcbgz/zccs/201705/t20170526_849165.html.National Development and Reform Commission,National Energy Administration.Power mid-to-long-term trading rules(trial)[EB/OL].[2018-05-15].http://yxj.ndrc.gov.cn/zttp/jdjjcbgz/zccs/201705/t20170526_849165.html.
[3]刘敦楠,李瑞庆,陈雪青,等.电力市场监管指标及市场评价体系[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(9):16-21.LIU Dunnan,LI Ruiqing,CHEN Xueqing,et al.Surveillance indices and evaluating system of electricity market[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2004,28(9):16-21.
[4]赵岩,刘继春,杨威,等.电力市场自律监管指标体系构建及其综合评价[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2013,25(5):26-30.ZHAO Yan,LIU Jichun,YANG Wei,et al.Construction of self-discipline and supervision index system for electricity market and its comprehensive evaluation[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2013,25(5):26-30.
[5]张集,张粒子,程瑜,等.基于SCP和模糊算法的市场力警戒级别评估[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(16):15-20.ZHANG Ji,ZHANG Lizi,CHENG Yu,et al.Market power warning in electricity market based on SCP model and fuzzy algorithm[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2006,30(16):15-20.
[6]汤俊,王妍.基于行为模式识别的可疑金融交易监控体系的构建与完善[J].西南金融,2015(2):15-18.TANG Jun,WANG Yan.Construction and improvement of suspicious financial transaction monitoring system based on behavior pattern identity[J].Southwest Finance,2015(2):15-18.
[7]李红梅,陈涛.电动汽车PMSM退磁故障诊断及故障模式识别[J].电工技术学报,2017,32(5):1-8.LI Hongmei,CHEN Tao.Demagnetization fault diagnosis and fault mode recognition of PMSM for EV[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2017,32(5):1-8.
[8]万楚林,陈皓勇,郭曼兰.基于模式识别的WAMS有功功率错误数据处理[J].电网技术,2017,41(3):922-930.WAN Chulin,CHEN Haoyong,GUO Manlan.Wrong active power data identification and correction for WAMS based on pattern recognition[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(3):922-930.
[9]刘敦楠,陈雪青,何光宇,等.电力市场供应者竞标行为的分析与对策[J].电力系统自动化,2005,28(6):24-28.LIU Dunnan,CHEN Xueqing,HE Guangyu,et al.Analysis and countermeasure for suppliers’behaviors in electricity market[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2005,28(6):24-28.
[10]杨淑莹,张烨.模式识别与智能计算[M].北京:中国工信出版集团,2015.YANG Shuying,ZHANG Ye.Pattern recognition and intelligent computing[M].Beijing:Publishing House of Electronics Industry,2015.
[11]李德毅,刘常昱.论正态云模型的普适性[J].中国工程科学,2004,6(8):28-34.LI Deyi,LIU Changyu.Study on the universality of the normal cloud model[J].Engineering Sciences,2004,6(8):28-34.
[12]宋人杰,丁江林,白丽,等.基于合作博弈法和梯形云模型的配电网模糊综合评价[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(14):1-8.SONG Renjie,DING Jianglin,BAI Li,et al.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of distribution network based on cooperative game theory and trapezoidal cloud model[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(14):1-8.
[13]王雁凌,张雪佼,阎敬民.基于变权灰云模型的风电场并网技术性综合评价[J].电网技术,2013,37(12):3546-3551.WANG Yanling,ZHANG Xuejiao,YAN Jingmin.Weightvarying gray cloud model based comprehensive evaluation on technical performance of overall grid-integration of wind farm[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(12):3546-3551.
[14]CHEN S M.Weighted fuzzy reasoning using weighted fuzzy Petri nets[J].IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering,2002,14(2):386-397.
[15]荆朝霞,朱继松.月度电量集中竞价市场规则的仿真实验分析[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(24):42-48.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170615022.JING Zhaoxia,ZHU Jisong.Simulation experiment analysis on market rules for monthly centralized bidding[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(24):42-48.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170615022.
[16]马子明,钟海旺,李竹,等.美国电力市场信息披露体系及其对中国的启示[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(24):49-57.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170918005.MA Ziming,ZHONG Haiwang,LI Zhu,et al.Information disclosure system in American electricity market and its enlightenment for China[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(24):49-57.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170918005.
[17]国家能源局湖南监管办公室,湖南省发展和改革委员会,湖南省经济和信息化委员会,湖南省能源局.湖南省电力中长期交易实施细则(征求意见稿)[EB/OL].[2018-05-15].https://pmos.hn.sgcc.com.cn/pmos/index/infoList.jsp?itemid=215000.Hunan Energy Regulatory Office of National Energy Administration,Development and Reform Commission of Hunan Province,Hunan Economic and Information Technology Commission,Hunan Energy Administration.Implementation rules for medium-to-long term trading in Hunan Province(draft)[EB/OL].[2018-05-15].https://pmos.hn.sgcc.com.cn/pm os/index/infoList.jsp?itemid=215000.
[18]广东省经济和信息化委员会,国家能源局南方监管局.关于明确2016年售电公司参与直接交易有关事项的通知[EB/OL].[2018-05-15].http://shupeidian.bjx.co m.cn/html/20160324/718959.shtml.Guangdong Economic and Information Technology Commission,South China Energy Regulation Bureau of National Energy Administration.Notice on clarifying matters relating to the participation of direct-sale companies in direct sales in 2016[EB/OL].[2018-05-15].http://shupeidian.bjx.com.cn/html/20160324/718959.shtml.
[19]杨强,蔡华祥,严明辉,等.基于激励相容与深度博弈的云南电力市场机制设计及应用[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(24):27-34.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170605022.YANG Qiang,CAI Huaxiang,YAN Minghui,et al.Design and application of electricity market mechanism for Yunnan based on theory of incentive compatibility and game in depth[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(24):27-34.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170605022.
[20]昆明电力交易中心有限责任公司.云南电力市场交易信用保证管理办法[EB/OL].[2018-05-15].https://www.kmpex.com/web/kmdljyzx/viewarticle?groupId=14081&articleId=15a1f97a-a04a-4ddd-a2e9-bf8337e1e289.Kunming Power Exchange Center.Trading credit guarantee management measures of Yunnan electric power market[EB/OL].[2018-05-15].https://www.kmpex.com/web/kmdljyzx/viewarticle?groupId=14081&articleId=15a1f97aa04a-4ddd-a2e9-bf8337e1e289.