经济增长与水环境变化耦合性研究
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摘要
以青岛市北安镇及镇内的宋化泉水库为研究对象,首先分析北安镇地区总产值、第一经济产值等经济特征变化规律,然后对宋化泉水库的COD、总氮、富营养化指数等水环境特征进行分析,然后选择Kendall时间趋势检验法检验宋化泉水库水环境变化趋势,选择Daniel趋势检验法进行对比验证,最后通过设计置信度区间和分析显著性指数研究水环境变化与各经济产业发展之间的相关性.研究主要得出以下结论:1)通过时间趋势检验法分析得到氟化物、氯化物和Chla为表征宋化泉水库水环境的特征污染物;2)水库水环境的水质发生了显著变化,如氟化物、氯化物和Chla等指标呈显著上升趋势,且与各社会经济指标呈高度显著正相关;3)在结合实际情况的基础上,通过相关性分析得出氯化物、氟化物和第二产业,Chla与农林牧渔业之间的相关性具有科学性,氯化物与第一产业、氟化物与第三产业的相关性仅为数学上的偶然现象,不是必然规律.研究方法和结论可为优化城镇经济产业与水环境治理提供科学指导和理论支撑.
Taking Beian town in Qingdao city and Songhuaquan Reservoir in Beian town as the research objects, the economic characteristics of Beian town were analyzed at first.Then the water quality indicators of Songhuaquan Reservoir were analyzed. The water quality indicators included COD, TN, eutrophication index, etc. And then the method of Kendall Time Trend Test and Daniel Time Trend Test were selected to test and compare the water environmental variation trend of Songhuaquan Reservoir,respectively. At last,the coupling relationship between water environmental variation and economic characteristics were analyzed by setting confidence interval and analyzing significance index. Such conclusions have been drawn as followings: 1) Fluoride, chloride and Chla were selected as the characteristic pollutants for the water environment of Songhuaquan Reservoir; 2) The water environment quality of Songhuaquan Reservoir changed dramatically, like fluoride, chloride and Chla rising increasingly and keeping a high significant positive correlation with social economic indexes; 3)Based on the actual situation and through further analysing, it was obtained that the coupling relationship between fluoride, chloride and the secondary industry, and the coupling relationship between Chla and agriculture animal husbandry and fishery were scientific. However, the coupling relationship between chloride and primary industry, and the coupling relationship between fluoride and tertiary industry were just an ancient phenomenon in mathematics, not an inevitable rule. The research methods and conclusions can provide a scientific guidance and theoretical support on sustainable development and water environment management of small towns.
Taking Beian town in Qingdao city and Songhuaquan Reservoir in Beian town as the research objects, the economic characteristics of Beian town were analyzed at first.Then the water quality indicators of Songhuaquan Reservoir were analyzed. The water quality indicators included COD, TN, eutrophication index, etc. And then the method of Kendall Time Trend Test and Daniel Time Trend Test were selected to test and compare the water environmental variation trend of Songhuaquan Reservoir,respectively. At last,the coupling relationship between water environmental variation and economic characteristics were analyzed by setting confidence interval and analyzing significance index. Such conclusions have been drawn as followings: 1) Fluoride, chloride and Chla were selected as the characteristic pollutants for the water environment of Songhuaquan Reservoir; 2) The water environment quality of Songhuaquan Reservoir changed dramatically, like fluoride, chloride and Chla rising increasingly and keeping a high significant positive correlation with social economic indexes; 3)Based on the actual situation and through further analysing, it was obtained that the coupling relationship between fluoride, chloride and the secondary industry, and the coupling relationship between Chla and agriculture animal husbandry and fishery were scientific. However, the coupling relationship between chloride and primary industry, and the coupling relationship between fluoride and tertiary industry were just an ancient phenomenon in mathematics, not an inevitable rule. The research methods and conclusions can provide a scientific guidance and theoretical support on sustainable development and water environment management of small towns.
引文
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[17]李清泉,孙丞虎,袁媛,等.近20年我国气候监测诊断业务技术的主要进展[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(6):666-676.
[18]高伟,陈岩,徐敏,等.抚仙湖水质变化(1980-2010年)趋势与驱动力分析[J].湖泊科学,2013,25(5):635-642.
[19]张寒云,段鹏.相关分析方法在数据约简中的应用[J].云南民族大学学报(自然科学版),2011,20(3):182-184.
[20] Ferrar K J, Kriesky J, Christen C L, et al. Assessment and longitudinal analysis of health impacts and stressors perceived to result from unconventional shale gas development in the Marcellus Shale region[J].International Journal of Occupational and Environmental Health, 2013, 19(2):104-112.
[2]马丽,金凤君,刘毅.中国经济与环境污染耦合度格局及工业结构解析[J].地理学报,2012, 67(10):1299-1307.
[3]柳辉,孙华.经济增长与水环境质量关系研究-以太湖流域无锡市为例[J].资源与产业,2009, 11(2):146-149.
[4]欧阳志宏,郭怀成,王婉晶,等.1982-2012年滇池水质变化及社会经济发展对水质的影响[J].中国环境监测, 2015, 31(2):68-73.
[5]王超,单保庆,秦晶,等.海河流域社会经济发展对河流水质的影响[J].环境科学学报,2015, 35(8):2354-2361.
[6]张姗姗,张落成,李刚,等.千岛湖流域水质变化与经济发展耦合协调性分析[J].湖泊科学,2014, 26(6):948-954.
[7]周亮,徐建刚.大尺度流域水污染防治能力综合评估及动力因子分析-以淮河流域为例[J].地理研究,2013, 32(10):1792-1801.
[8]蔡振饶,李旭东,李玉红,等.贵阳市经济发展与水资源环境耦合研究[J].人民长江,2018,49(6):39-43.
[9]李登秋.镇域耕地生态因子的协同性分析与管理分区研究[D].山东农业大学,2010.
[10]李小迎.镇域尺度土地景观格局变化及影响因素分析-以南京市东坝镇为例[J].上海国土资源,2016,37(1):24-27.
[11]徐文君,仝闻一,冯启凤.“两区共建”视角下的农村社区规划方法探析-即墨市新型农村社区布局规划实践[J].规划师,2014, 30(3):28-31.
[12]王丕坤.加强水资源保护利用推动经济社会可持续发展-即墨市水资源利用存在的问题和解决措施[J].科技与企业,2016,(4):117+119-118.
[13]李江帆.新型工业化与第三产业的发展[J].经济学动态;2004,(1):9-42.
[14]山东省即墨市统计局.即墨统计年鉴[J].北京:中国统计出版社,2007-2013.
[15]门宝辉,梁川.基于变异系数权重的水质评价属性识别模型[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2005, 37(10):1373-1375.
[16]王晋,王琳,周玲玲.2007~2011年石棚水库富营养化评价[J].绿色科技,2013,(11):148-152.
[17]李清泉,孙丞虎,袁媛,等.近20年我国气候监测诊断业务技术的主要进展[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(6):666-676.
[18]高伟,陈岩,徐敏,等.抚仙湖水质变化(1980-2010年)趋势与驱动力分析[J].湖泊科学,2013,25(5):635-642.
[19]张寒云,段鹏.相关分析方法在数据约简中的应用[J].云南民族大学学报(自然科学版),2011,20(3):182-184.
[20] Ferrar K J, Kriesky J, Christen C L, et al. Assessment and longitudinal analysis of health impacts and stressors perceived to result from unconventional shale gas development in the Marcellus Shale region[J].International Journal of Occupational and Environmental Health, 2013, 19(2):104-112.