强制减排对造纸企业碳排放强度及竞争力的影响
|
摘要
造纸企业的配额型交易是政府根据造纸行业发展状况和温室气体排放情况而分配给造纸企业一定的排放权,造纸企业可将未达到配额的排放权用于碳交易。基于2000-2016的造纸企业碳排放数据不足以研究强制配额对造纸企业碳排放强度及竞争力的影响,因此引入ARMA模型,对未来5年造纸企业的碳排放量及工业生产总值进行预测,以此测算造纸企业碳排放强度,实证分析强制减排对造纸企业碳排放强度和竞争力的影响。结果表明:强制减排对造纸企业碳排放强度及竞争力的影响是随着强制配额制度与体系的不断完善,碳排放强度不断降低,竞争力不断增强。
Quota trading of paper enterprises is a kind of emission right allocated by the government to paper enterprises according to the development of paper industry and greenhouse gas emissions. Paper enterprises can use the emission right that does not meet the quota for carbon trading. Based on the data of carbon emission from 2000 to 2016,it is not enough to study the effect of mandatory quota on carbon emission intensity and competitiveness of paper enterprises. Therefore,ARMA model was introduced to forecast the carbon emission and industrial gross product of paper enterprises in the next five years,in order to calculate the carbon emission intensity of paper enterprises,and to empirically analyze the impact of mandatory emission reduction on carbon emission intensity and competitiveness of paper enterprises. The results show that the effect of mandatory emission reduction on carbon emission intensity and competitiveness of paper mills is that with the continuous improvement of mandatory quota system and system,carbon emission intensity decreases and competitiveness increases.
Quota trading of paper enterprises is a kind of emission right allocated by the government to paper enterprises according to the development of paper industry and greenhouse gas emissions. Paper enterprises can use the emission right that does not meet the quota for carbon trading. Based on the data of carbon emission from 2000 to 2016,it is not enough to study the effect of mandatory quota on carbon emission intensity and competitiveness of paper enterprises. Therefore,ARMA model was introduced to forecast the carbon emission and industrial gross product of paper enterprises in the next five years,in order to calculate the carbon emission intensity of paper enterprises,and to empirically analyze the impact of mandatory emission reduction on carbon emission intensity and competitiveness of paper enterprises. The results show that the effect of mandatory emission reduction on carbon emission intensity and competitiveness of paper mills is that with the continuous improvement of mandatory quota system and system,carbon emission intensity decreases and competitiveness increases.
引文
[1]Lee S. Corporate Carbon Strategies in Responding to Climate Change[J]. Business Strategy and the Environment,2012,21(1):33-48.
[2]吕泽瑜,蒋彬,孙慧,等.我国造纸行业碳排放现状及减排途径[J].中国造纸学报,2017,3(32):64-69.
[3]李永智,刘晶晶,孔令波.造纸企业温室气体排放核算及其应用[J].中国造纸,2017,36(10):24-29.
[4]王海刚,曹丹.低碳视角下我国造纸产业国际竞争力实例分析[J].低碳造纸产业,2017,10(36):74-78.
[5]邱晓兰,余建辉.低碳视角下中国造纸产业国际竞争力分析[J].安徽农业大学学报(社会科学版),2014,23(6):34-41.
[6]陈春根,钱静,应美群.环境规制对我国制造业出口贸易竞争力影响的实证分析[J].经济论坛,2013(10):83-86.
[7]王琛.碳配额约束对企业竞争力的影响[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2017,19(1):47-55.
[8]CongR,Wei Y. M. Auction design for the allocation of carbon emission allowances:uniform or discriminatory price[J]. Int.J. Energy Environ,2010,1(3):533–546.
[9]陆敏,苍玉权,李岩岩.碳交易机制对上海市工业碳排放强度和竞争力的影响[J].技术经济,2018,37(7):114-120.
[10]朱添金,赵庆建,杨慧.等.基于VAR模型的碳汇价值对我国木材价格的影响[J].南京林业大学学报(自然科学版),2018,42(5):191-195.
[11]丁胜,朱天金,赵庆建.基于CGE模型的林业碳税在森林采伐管理中的应用[J].南京林业大学学报(自然科学版),2018,42(3):146-152.
[12]徐士莹,杨加猛.中国造纸及纸制品业碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系研究[J].中华纸业,2018(5):54-58.
[13]Hu X C,Liu C L. Carbon Productivity:A Case Study in the Australian Construction Industry[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,112(1):2354-2362.
[14]赵庆建,温作民,张敏新.林业产业低碳技术创新与政策分析[J].林业经济,2018(12):28-34.
[15]赵庆建,温作民,张敏新,等.基于林浆纸供应链的隐含碳流与碳排放计量研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(8):39-46.
[16]王帅,彭红军,孙铭军.木质林产品供应链中碳汇交易价格合作机制研究[J].林业经济问题,2018,38(3):51-60.
[17]宋留,杨冲,张辉等.造纸废水处理过程的高斯过程回归软测量建模[J].中国环境科学,2018,38(7):2564-2571.
[2]吕泽瑜,蒋彬,孙慧,等.我国造纸行业碳排放现状及减排途径[J].中国造纸学报,2017,3(32):64-69.
[3]李永智,刘晶晶,孔令波.造纸企业温室气体排放核算及其应用[J].中国造纸,2017,36(10):24-29.
[4]王海刚,曹丹.低碳视角下我国造纸产业国际竞争力实例分析[J].低碳造纸产业,2017,10(36):74-78.
[5]邱晓兰,余建辉.低碳视角下中国造纸产业国际竞争力分析[J].安徽农业大学学报(社会科学版),2014,23(6):34-41.
[6]陈春根,钱静,应美群.环境规制对我国制造业出口贸易竞争力影响的实证分析[J].经济论坛,2013(10):83-86.
[7]王琛.碳配额约束对企业竞争力的影响[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2017,19(1):47-55.
[8]CongR,Wei Y. M. Auction design for the allocation of carbon emission allowances:uniform or discriminatory price[J]. Int.J. Energy Environ,2010,1(3):533–546.
[9]陆敏,苍玉权,李岩岩.碳交易机制对上海市工业碳排放强度和竞争力的影响[J].技术经济,2018,37(7):114-120.
[10]朱添金,赵庆建,杨慧.等.基于VAR模型的碳汇价值对我国木材价格的影响[J].南京林业大学学报(自然科学版),2018,42(5):191-195.
[11]丁胜,朱天金,赵庆建.基于CGE模型的林业碳税在森林采伐管理中的应用[J].南京林业大学学报(自然科学版),2018,42(3):146-152.
[12]徐士莹,杨加猛.中国造纸及纸制品业碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系研究[J].中华纸业,2018(5):54-58.
[13]Hu X C,Liu C L. Carbon Productivity:A Case Study in the Australian Construction Industry[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,112(1):2354-2362.
[14]赵庆建,温作民,张敏新.林业产业低碳技术创新与政策分析[J].林业经济,2018(12):28-34.
[15]赵庆建,温作民,张敏新,等.基于林浆纸供应链的隐含碳流与碳排放计量研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(8):39-46.
[16]王帅,彭红军,孙铭军.木质林产品供应链中碳汇交易价格合作机制研究[J].林业经济问题,2018,38(3):51-60.
[17]宋留,杨冲,张辉等.造纸废水处理过程的高斯过程回归软测量建模[J].中国环境科学,2018,38(7):2564-2571.