水库型堆积层滑坡位移方向协调性参数及其失稳判据研究
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摘要
水库型堆积层边坡位移受库水位循环涨落及降雨的影响,具有波动与震荡的特点,然而其位移变化与突变多为库水位涨落及降雨所引起,并非一定缘于边坡稳定性降低。因此,运用传统单维度位移预测参数与判据分析该类滑坡稳定性时,经常会引起误判。针对传统单维度位移预测参数与失稳判据的局限性,本文根据滑坡全息论的基本原理,提出垂直位移方向率这一水库型堆积层边坡稳定性评价的位移方向协调性参数,并深入分析与确定了水库型堆积层边坡弹性压缩变形阶段和塑性失稳变形阶段该参数与其稳定性演化的定量关系。在此基础上,根据数理统计趋势位移分析原理,建立了边坡稳定性判据准则,并运用新滩边坡F系列监测点实际位移数据进行了垂直位移方向率的稳定性计算与分析。预测分析结果与该边坡实际稳定性演化阶段相吻合,说明垂直位移方向率参数在水库型堆积层滑坡稳定性评价与监测预警中具有一定的有效性。
The displacement of colluvial landslide in reservoir area is affected by the circulating fluctuation of reservoir water level and rainfall and has the characteristics of fluctuation and oscillation. However,the change and mutation of the displacement are mostly caused by the fluctuation of reservoir water level and rainfall,which are not necessarily due to the decrease of slope stability. Therefore,using the traditional single-dimension displacement prediction parameters and criteria to analyze the stability of landslides oftencauses misjudgment. For this problem,this paper proposes the vertical displacement direction rate as an ef-fective displacement direction coordination parameter for the analysis and evaluation of slope stability evolu-tion according to the basic principle of holographic theory of landslide. Meanwhile,the quantitative relation-ship between surface vertical displacement direction rate and the evolution of stability in the compressionstage and the plastic deformation stage of slope are deeply analyzed and determined. Based on the analysisresults above,this paper establishes the monitoring and warning criteria of the vertical displacement direc-tion rate of the colluvial landslide induced by reservoir through the basic trend displacement analysis princi-ple of mathematical statistics. According to the vertical displacement direction rate parameter and the criteri-on, the stability of Xintan landslide is calculated and discriminated by the data of F series monitoringpoints. The prediction coincide with actual deformation of slope in different instability stage,it reveals thatthe vertical displacement direction rate parameter is effective in the stability evaluation and warning of colluvial landslide induced by reservoir.
The displacement of colluvial landslide in reservoir area is affected by the circulating fluctuation of reservoir water level and rainfall and has the characteristics of fluctuation and oscillation. However,the change and mutation of the displacement are mostly caused by the fluctuation of reservoir water level and rainfall,which are not necessarily due to the decrease of slope stability. Therefore,using the traditional single-dimension displacement prediction parameters and criteria to analyze the stability of landslides oftencauses misjudgment. For this problem,this paper proposes the vertical displacement direction rate as an ef-fective displacement direction coordination parameter for the analysis and evaluation of slope stability evolu-tion according to the basic principle of holographic theory of landslide. Meanwhile,the quantitative relation-ship between surface vertical displacement direction rate and the evolution of stability in the compressionstage and the plastic deformation stage of slope are deeply analyzed and determined. Based on the analysisresults above,this paper establishes the monitoring and warning criteria of the vertical displacement direc-tion rate of the colluvial landslide induced by reservoir through the basic trend displacement analysis princi-ple of mathematical statistics. According to the vertical displacement direction rate parameter and the criteri-on, the stability of Xintan landslide is calculated and discriminated by the data of F series monitoringpoints. The prediction coincide with actual deformation of slope in different instability stage,it reveals thatthe vertical displacement direction rate parameter is effective in the stability evaluation and warning of colluvial landslide induced by reservoir.
引文
[1]王士天,刘汉超,张倬元,等.大型水域水岩相互作用及其环境效应研究[J].地质灾害与环境保护,1997,8(1):69-88.
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[3] Committee on Reservoir Slope Stability. Reservoir Landslides:Investigation and Management[R]. Paris,International Commission on Large Dams,2002.
[4]蔺力.三峡库区丰都-涪陵段滑坡稳定性评价及危险性预测[D].成都:成都理工大学,2017.
[5]夏金梧,郭厚桢.长江上游地区滑坡分布特征及主要控制因素探讨[J].水文地质工程地质,1997(1):19-22.
[6] SAITO M. Forecasting time of slope failure by tertiary creep[C]//Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering. Mexico City,1969.
[7] HOEK E,BRAY J W.岩石边坡工程[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,1977.
[8]张倬元,黄润秋.岩体失稳前系统的线性和非线性状态及破坏时间预报的“黄金分割法”[C]//全国第三次工程地质大会论文选集(下).成都:成都科技大学出版社,1988.
[9] FUKUZONO T. Recent studies on time prediction of slope failure[J]. Landslide News,1990,115(5):51-52.
[10]苏爱军,冯宗礼.滑坡预报方法探讨[J].水文地质工程地质,1990(5):50-51.
[11]伍法权,王年生.一种滑坡位移动力学预报方法探讨[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1996,7(S1):38-41.
[12] KIM J,SALGADO R,YU H S. Limit analysis of soil slopes subjected to pore-water pressures[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,1999,125(1):49-58.
[13] RUTLEDGE D,GNIPP J,KRAMER J. Advances in real-time GPS deformation monitoring for landslides,volcanoes,and structures[C]//The 10th FIG International Symposium on Deformation Measurements. 2001.
[14]李天斌.滑坡实时跟踪预报概论[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2002,13(4):17-22.
[15]贾明涛,王李管,潘长良.基于监测数据的边坡位移可视化分析系统[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2003,22(8):1324-1328.
[16] MA L,DAEMEN J J K. Strain rate dependent strength and stress-strain characteristics of a welded tuff[J]. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment,2006,65(3):221-230.
[17]许强,曾裕平.具有蠕变特点滑坡的加速度变化特征及临滑预警指标研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(6):1099-1106.
[18]秦四清,王媛媛,马平.崩滑灾害临界位移演化的指数律[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(5):873-880.
[19]张正虎,袁孟科,邓建辉,等.基于改进灰色-时序分析时变模型的边坡位移预测[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2014,33(S2):3791-3797.
[20] BELLE P,AUNAY B,BERNARDIE S,et al. The application of an innovative inverse model for understanding and predicting landslide movements[J]. Landslides,2014,11(3):343-355.
[21]周超,殷坤龙,黄发明.混沌序列WA-ELM耦合模型在滑坡位移预测中的应用[J].岩土力学,2015,36(9):2674-2680.
[22]张凯翔,牛瑞卿,胡友健,等.基于小波变换及外因响应的滑坡位移预测[J].中国矿业大学学报,2017,46(4):924-931.
[23]徐兴华,沿岳全,王迎超.滑坡工程治理效果分形预测研究[J].水利学报,2011,42(4):440-47.
[24]贺可强,阳吉宝,王思敬.堆积层滑坡位移动力学理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.
[25]王尚庆.长江三峡滑坡监测预报[M].北京:地质出版社,1999.
[2] RIEMER W. Landslides and reservoirs(keynote paper)[C]//Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Landslides. Christchurch,1992.
[3] Committee on Reservoir Slope Stability. Reservoir Landslides:Investigation and Management[R]. Paris,International Commission on Large Dams,2002.
[4]蔺力.三峡库区丰都-涪陵段滑坡稳定性评价及危险性预测[D].成都:成都理工大学,2017.
[5]夏金梧,郭厚桢.长江上游地区滑坡分布特征及主要控制因素探讨[J].水文地质工程地质,1997(1):19-22.
[6] SAITO M. Forecasting time of slope failure by tertiary creep[C]//Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering. Mexico City,1969.
[7] HOEK E,BRAY J W.岩石边坡工程[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,1977.
[8]张倬元,黄润秋.岩体失稳前系统的线性和非线性状态及破坏时间预报的“黄金分割法”[C]//全国第三次工程地质大会论文选集(下).成都:成都科技大学出版社,1988.
[9] FUKUZONO T. Recent studies on time prediction of slope failure[J]. Landslide News,1990,115(5):51-52.
[10]苏爱军,冯宗礼.滑坡预报方法探讨[J].水文地质工程地质,1990(5):50-51.
[11]伍法权,王年生.一种滑坡位移动力学预报方法探讨[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1996,7(S1):38-41.
[12] KIM J,SALGADO R,YU H S. Limit analysis of soil slopes subjected to pore-water pressures[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,1999,125(1):49-58.
[13] RUTLEDGE D,GNIPP J,KRAMER J. Advances in real-time GPS deformation monitoring for landslides,volcanoes,and structures[C]//The 10th FIG International Symposium on Deformation Measurements. 2001.
[14]李天斌.滑坡实时跟踪预报概论[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2002,13(4):17-22.
[15]贾明涛,王李管,潘长良.基于监测数据的边坡位移可视化分析系统[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2003,22(8):1324-1328.
[16] MA L,DAEMEN J J K. Strain rate dependent strength and stress-strain characteristics of a welded tuff[J]. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment,2006,65(3):221-230.
[17]许强,曾裕平.具有蠕变特点滑坡的加速度变化特征及临滑预警指标研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(6):1099-1106.
[18]秦四清,王媛媛,马平.崩滑灾害临界位移演化的指数律[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(5):873-880.
[19]张正虎,袁孟科,邓建辉,等.基于改进灰色-时序分析时变模型的边坡位移预测[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2014,33(S2):3791-3797.
[20] BELLE P,AUNAY B,BERNARDIE S,et al. The application of an innovative inverse model for understanding and predicting landslide movements[J]. Landslides,2014,11(3):343-355.
[21]周超,殷坤龙,黄发明.混沌序列WA-ELM耦合模型在滑坡位移预测中的应用[J].岩土力学,2015,36(9):2674-2680.
[22]张凯翔,牛瑞卿,胡友健,等.基于小波变换及外因响应的滑坡位移预测[J].中国矿业大学学报,2017,46(4):924-931.
[23]徐兴华,沿岳全,王迎超.滑坡工程治理效果分形预测研究[J].水利学报,2011,42(4):440-47.
[24]贺可强,阳吉宝,王思敬.堆积层滑坡位移动力学理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.
[25]王尚庆.长江三峡滑坡监测预报[M].北京:地质出版社,1999.