基于灰色理论的科技文献增长规律研究——以微信舆情为例
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摘要
[目的/意义]旨在为科技文献研究提供参考。[方法/过程]将科技文献系统作为灰色系统,构建了科技文献增长的动态模型,并就建模方法、模型检验、模型预测等问题进行了探讨。以CNKI《中国学术文献网络出版总库》为主要数据源,利用2013—2017年微信舆情相关文献增长数据为研究对象,对预测模型进行了实证分析。[结果/结论]该模型作为科技文献增长规律的预测模型,比指数增长模型和逻辑增长模型更具有优越性,预测精度较传统的GM(1,1)模型大幅提高,可以为科技文献研究提供理论依据。
[Purpose/significance] The paper is to provide references for the study of scientific documents. [Method/process]The paper takes scientific documents system as a grey system, builds the dynamic model of the growth of scientific documents, and discusses the modeling method, the model test, the model predictions and other issues. Then it uses "China Academic Journal Network Publishing Database" of CNKI as the main data sources and the growth data of WeChat public opinion related documents published in2013-2017 as the research objects, to make an empirical analysis with the prediction model. [Result/conclusion] The model as a prediction model of scientific documents growth rule, has more advantages than the exponential growth model and the logistic growth model, and its prediction accuracy is much better than the accuracy of traditional GM(1, 1) model. This model can provide theoretical basis for the study of scientific documents.
[Purpose/significance] The paper is to provide references for the study of scientific documents. [Method/process]The paper takes scientific documents system as a grey system, builds the dynamic model of the growth of scientific documents, and discusses the modeling method, the model test, the model predictions and other issues. Then it uses "China Academic Journal Network Publishing Database" of CNKI as the main data sources and the growth data of WeChat public opinion related documents published in2013-2017 as the research objects, to make an empirical analysis with the prediction model. [Result/conclusion] The model as a prediction model of scientific documents growth rule, has more advantages than the exponential growth model and the logistic growth model, and its prediction accuracy is much better than the accuracy of traditional GM(1, 1) model. This model can provide theoretical basis for the study of scientific documents.
引文
[1]兰月新.基于动态logistic模型的文献增长规律研究[J].情报科学,2014,32(3):86-97.
[2]邱均平.文献计量学[M].北京:科学技术文献出版社,1988.
[3]李久平,姚乐野.知识管理文献增长模型研究[J].图书馆理论与实践,2012(5):36-39.
[4]匡兴华.关于科学文献增长规律的研究[D].武汉:武汉大学,1983.
[5]黄建东.科技文献增长的灰色模拟[J].情报理论与实践,1989(10):12-15.
[6]吴翠芳.我国微信舆情研究的文献计量分析[J].科技创新导报,2017(10):147-150.
[7]钟旭,黄晖.用灰色预测模型预测中国自然科学期刊论文合著率指标的发展趋势[J].情报学报,1999,18(1):91-94.
[2]邱均平.文献计量学[M].北京:科学技术文献出版社,1988.
[3]李久平,姚乐野.知识管理文献增长模型研究[J].图书馆理论与实践,2012(5):36-39.
[4]匡兴华.关于科学文献增长规律的研究[D].武汉:武汉大学,1983.
[5]黄建东.科技文献增长的灰色模拟[J].情报理论与实践,1989(10):12-15.
[6]吴翠芳.我国微信舆情研究的文献计量分析[J].科技创新导报,2017(10):147-150.
[7]钟旭,黄晖.用灰色预测模型预测中国自然科学期刊论文合著率指标的发展趋势[J].情报学报,1999,18(1):91-94.