基于前景值和乘客最优理论的居民公交出行选择模型
|
摘要
为研究城市内居民的出行目的与公共交通工具选择的关系,运用前景理论和乘客最优理论建立了客运走廊内居民公共交通出行选择模型。调查了苏州市木渎站至钟南街站客运走廊沿线居民的出行目的,获取了居民出行目的与公共交通工具服务属性关系数据,以此数据为依据计算出各种公共交通工具的前景值,并进行模型检验,结果发现模型运行至第786代后解的质量稳定在97%,与实测值相比,模型的模拟结果与居民选择公共交通工具的行为是一致的。可见该模型为预测公共交通工具的分担量提供一种新思路。
In order to study the relationship between the travel purposes of the urban residents and the choice of public transport,prospect theory and passenger optimal theory was used to establish a model of public transport choice in passenger corridor. The travel purposes of residents along the passenger corridor from Mudu Station to Zhongnanjie Station in Suzhou City were surveyed. The data of the relationship between the traveling purposes of residents and the attributes of public transport services are obtained. According to these data,the prospect values of various public transport vehicles are calculated. The model tests show that when the model runs to the 786 th generation,the quality of the solution is stable at 97%. It is concluded that compared with the measured values,the simulation results of the model agree with the residents' public transport choice and this model can provide a new idea for forecasting the share of public transport.
In order to study the relationship between the travel purposes of the urban residents and the choice of public transport,prospect theory and passenger optimal theory was used to establish a model of public transport choice in passenger corridor. The travel purposes of residents along the passenger corridor from Mudu Station to Zhongnanjie Station in Suzhou City were surveyed. The data of the relationship between the traveling purposes of residents and the attributes of public transport services are obtained. According to these data,the prospect values of various public transport vehicles are calculated. The model tests show that when the model runs to the 786 th generation,the quality of the solution is stable at 97%. It is concluded that compared with the measured values,the simulation results of the model agree with the residents' public transport choice and this model can provide a new idea for forecasting the share of public transport.
引文
1陈俊励,马云龙,朱楠.基于巢式Logit模型的公交出行方式选择行为研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2011,11(增刊1):120-125Chen Junli,Ma Yunlong,Zhu Nan. A study on bus travel mode choice behavior based on a bested logit model[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2011,11(S1):120-125
2 陈坚,晏启鹏,杨飞,等.出行方式选择行为的SEM-Logit整合模型[J].华南理工大学学报:自然科学版,2013,41(2):51-57Chen Jian,Yan Qipeng,Yang Fei,et al. SEM-Logit integration model of travel mode choice behaviors[J]. Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science Edition),2013,41(2):51-57
3 潘福全,王健,亓荣杰,等.基于公交限时免费换乘的居民出行方式选择建模与分析[J].科学技术与工程,2018,18(21):129-133Pan Fuquan,Wang Jian,Qi Rongjie,et al. Modeling and analysis of travel mode for urban residents based on transit time-limited free transfer[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2018,18(21):129-133
4 陈坚,杨亚璪,李小兵,等.基于SEM的城市公交方式选择行为模型[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2014,14(5):202-208Chen Jian,Yang Yazao,Li Xiaobing,et al. Mode choice behavior model of urban public transport based on SEM[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2014,14(5):202-208
5 赖见辉,陈艳艳,张伟伟,等.基于前景理论的地铁/公交出行路径选择模型[J].北京工业大学学报,2014,40(4):567-573Lai Jianhui,Chen Yanyan,Zhang Weiwei,et al. Subway and public transit path choice model based on prospect theory[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Technology,2014,40(4):567-573
6 张薇,何瑞春.基于前景理论的居民出行方式选择[J].计算机应用,2014,34(3):749-753Zhang Wei,He Ruichun. Residents travel mode choice based on prospect theory[J]. Journal of Computer Applications,2014,34(3):749-753
7 刘昱岗,安冬冬.数据挖掘在公交调查数据分析中的应用研究[J].公路工程,2014,39(2):96-101Liu Yugang,An Dongdong. An application of data-mining with bus survey data[J]. Highway Engineering,2014,39(2):96-101
8 芦方强,陈学武,胡晓健.基于公交OD数据的居民公交出行特征研究[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2010,8(2):31-36Lu Fangqiang,Chen Xuewu,Hu Xiaojian. Characteristic research of resident's bus trip based on bus OD data[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering an Information,2010,8(2):31-36
9 左毅刚,李文权,陈茜,等.公交信息条件下的公交出行意愿研究[J].交通信息与安全,2014(2):57-62Zuo Yigang,Li Wenquan,Chen Qian,et al. Bus travel willingness under the condition of bus information[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety,2014(2):57-62
10 张波,隽志才,倪安宁.前景理论在出行行为研究中的适用性[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2013,15(1):54-62Zhang Bo,Juan Zhicai,Ni Anning. The applicability of prospect theory in travel behavior research[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition),2013,15(1):54-62
11 丁勇,姜枫,武玉艳.遗传算法在公交调度中的应用[J].计算机科学,2015(4):22-24Ding Yong,Jiang Feng,Wu Yuyang. Application of genetic algorithm in public transit dispatchers[J]. Computer Science,2015(4):22-24
2 陈坚,晏启鹏,杨飞,等.出行方式选择行为的SEM-Logit整合模型[J].华南理工大学学报:自然科学版,2013,41(2):51-57Chen Jian,Yan Qipeng,Yang Fei,et al. SEM-Logit integration model of travel mode choice behaviors[J]. Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science Edition),2013,41(2):51-57
3 潘福全,王健,亓荣杰,等.基于公交限时免费换乘的居民出行方式选择建模与分析[J].科学技术与工程,2018,18(21):129-133Pan Fuquan,Wang Jian,Qi Rongjie,et al. Modeling and analysis of travel mode for urban residents based on transit time-limited free transfer[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2018,18(21):129-133
4 陈坚,杨亚璪,李小兵,等.基于SEM的城市公交方式选择行为模型[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2014,14(5):202-208Chen Jian,Yang Yazao,Li Xiaobing,et al. Mode choice behavior model of urban public transport based on SEM[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2014,14(5):202-208
5 赖见辉,陈艳艳,张伟伟,等.基于前景理论的地铁/公交出行路径选择模型[J].北京工业大学学报,2014,40(4):567-573Lai Jianhui,Chen Yanyan,Zhang Weiwei,et al. Subway and public transit path choice model based on prospect theory[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Technology,2014,40(4):567-573
6 张薇,何瑞春.基于前景理论的居民出行方式选择[J].计算机应用,2014,34(3):749-753Zhang Wei,He Ruichun. Residents travel mode choice based on prospect theory[J]. Journal of Computer Applications,2014,34(3):749-753
7 刘昱岗,安冬冬.数据挖掘在公交调查数据分析中的应用研究[J].公路工程,2014,39(2):96-101Liu Yugang,An Dongdong. An application of data-mining with bus survey data[J]. Highway Engineering,2014,39(2):96-101
8 芦方强,陈学武,胡晓健.基于公交OD数据的居民公交出行特征研究[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2010,8(2):31-36Lu Fangqiang,Chen Xuewu,Hu Xiaojian. Characteristic research of resident's bus trip based on bus OD data[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering an Information,2010,8(2):31-36
9 左毅刚,李文权,陈茜,等.公交信息条件下的公交出行意愿研究[J].交通信息与安全,2014(2):57-62Zuo Yigang,Li Wenquan,Chen Qian,et al. Bus travel willingness under the condition of bus information[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety,2014(2):57-62
10 张波,隽志才,倪安宁.前景理论在出行行为研究中的适用性[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2013,15(1):54-62Zhang Bo,Juan Zhicai,Ni Anning. The applicability of prospect theory in travel behavior research[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition),2013,15(1):54-62
11 丁勇,姜枫,武玉艳.遗传算法在公交调度中的应用[J].计算机科学,2015(4):22-24Ding Yong,Jiang Feng,Wu Yuyang. Application of genetic algorithm in public transit dispatchers[J]. Computer Science,2015(4):22-24