近35年来肇庆开汛暴雨的气候特征及环流形势
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摘要
利用肇庆6个国家观测站近35年(1981—2015年)3—6月逐日降水量资料、历史天气图以及NCEP1.0×1.0再分析资料,分析肇庆开汛暴雨的气候变化特征以及暴雨产生的天气形势分类,结果表明:肇庆开汛暴雨多发生在3—4月,开汛暴雨在肇庆的北部出现的频次较南部多。开汛暴雨天气影响系统主要是南支槽、中纬度西风槽;1981—2015年,受南支槽影响的过程共17次,受中纬西风槽影响的共18次。南支槽类暴雨常常产生在500 hPa高空槽前的西南风大值区、850 hPa切变线南侧;中纬西风槽暴雨发生时,500、700 hPa的西南偏西风通常比较强盛,为暴雨的产生提供了充足的水汽。无论是南支槽类暴雨还是中纬西风槽类暴雨,在暴雨发生前,850 hPa上有急流或切变线出现。
With the data of daily rainfall and historical weather maps from March to June in a 35-year period(1981-2015) taken at six national observation sites in Zhaoqing as well as NCEP 1.0×1.0 reanalysis, the characteristics of heavy rains at the onset of every yearly raining season are studied and their associated weather patterns are classified. The result is shown as follows. Most of the seasonally first heavy rain took place in March and April and more frequently in northern Zhaoqing than in its southern part. A southern branch of the westerlies and a mid-latitude westerly trough were the main synoptic systems governing this kind of heavy rain. From 1981 to 2015, it was affected by the former for 17 times and the latter for 18 times. The southern branch-induced heavy rain usually took place in an area of large southwesterly winds before an upper-level trough at 500 hPa and south of a shear at 850 hPa. The mid-latitude westerlies trough-caused heavy rain usually happened when strong southwest to west winds were prevailing at 500 and 700 hPa to provide sufficient water vapor for its generation. A jet stream or shear always appeared at 850 hPa prior to the heavy rain regardless of the system it was associated with.
With the data of daily rainfall and historical weather maps from March to June in a 35-year period(1981-2015) taken at six national observation sites in Zhaoqing as well as NCEP 1.0×1.0 reanalysis, the characteristics of heavy rains at the onset of every yearly raining season are studied and their associated weather patterns are classified. The result is shown as follows. Most of the seasonally first heavy rain took place in March and April and more frequently in northern Zhaoqing than in its southern part. A southern branch of the westerlies and a mid-latitude westerly trough were the main synoptic systems governing this kind of heavy rain. From 1981 to 2015, it was affected by the former for 17 times and the latter for 18 times. The southern branch-induced heavy rain usually took place in an area of large southwesterly winds before an upper-level trough at 500 hPa and south of a shear at 850 hPa. The mid-latitude westerlies trough-caused heavy rain usually happened when strong southwest to west winds were prevailing at 500 and 700 hPa to provide sufficient water vapor for its generation. A jet stream or shear always appeared at 850 hPa prior to the heavy rain regardless of the system it was associated with.
引文
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[5]廖胜石,罗建英,林开平.华南汛期暴雨过程的潜热计算分析[J].广西气象,2005,26(2):4-8:
[6]李阳斌,李翠华,邓朝阳.2013年5·6广东清远特大暴雨分析[J].广东气象,2015,37(1):27-30.
[7]方宇凌,钟国星,夏冠聪,等.中山市前汛期暴雨的环流系统分型及成因分析[J].广东气象,2015,37(5):14-18.
[8]谢小敏,王明洁,胡娟.深圳市前汛期西风带大暴雨天气形势特征[J].广东气象,2010,32(3):9-11,16.
[9]陈芳丽,张子凡,李明华,等.惠州市近40年前汛期暴雨的气候特征分析[J].广东气象,2014,36(3):25-29.
[10]刘尉,罗晓玲,陈慧华,等.近52年广东开汛期特征及与前汛期降水的关系分析[J].气象,2014,40(7):827-734.
[11]林良勋,冯业荣,黄忠,等.广东省天气预报技术手册[M].北京:气象出版社,2006.
[12]陶诗言,丁一汇,周晓平.暴雨和强对流天气的研究[J].大气科学,1979,3(3):227-238.
[13]朱义青,高安春,李炳文,等.一次罕见的局地大暴雨动力条件诊断分析[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(27):16815-16818,16835.