摘要
"十三五"易地扶贫搬迁既强调精准脱贫,又要避免落入"政策陷阱",在消除绝对贫困的同时谨防农户收入不平等导致的相对贫困风险。本文利用2015年的陕南入户调查数据,建立农户收入决定模型,探索农户收入水平的影响因素,并基于夏普利值过程进行收入不平等的回归分解,量化了各因素在不收入不平等上对收入不平等的贡献程度。结果表明,搬迁政策有效破解了"一方水土养不起一方人"的发展困境,在实现贫困户有效增收的同时也在一定程度加剧了低收入群体的收入差距;五大生计资本对农户收入水平的影响及收入不平等的贡献度也不尽相同,生计资本在不同收入水平上对收入不平等的影响通过政策因素得以强化。本文为后续加强精准施策和精细管理提供启示。
The "13th Five-year Plan" proposed the relocation for poverty alleviation as an important measure of targeted poverty alleviation. With the implementation of relocation to eliminate the absolute poverty, however, it is necessary to pay special attention to prevent "policy trap" caused by the enlargement of income inequality of rural household. This paper uses the first-hand survey data from the Southern Shanxi Province to establish a household income model to explore the determinants of income. Then, this paper conducts income inequality analysis based on the decomposition of the Shapley Value process to quantify the contribution of each factor to income inequality in different quantile. The results show that the relocation policy not only increases rural household's income significantly, but also contributes to income inequality among the poor. Households' livelihood capitals have different effects on both the increase of income and inequality. Moreover, the policy also strengthens the impacts of capital on income inequality.
引文
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(1)贷款占当年家庭总消费比重,数值可大于1
(2)单独引入各项资本的交互项导致模型解释变量过多、自由度损失等问题,且不是本文关注的核心
(3)以加权平均衡量农户生计资本方法详见李聪等(2014)
(4)半对数模型中,解释变量对被解释变量的影响程度为■
(5)比如所有家庭成员健康状况从“不健康”提升到“一般”,量化指标数值提高0.5
(6)解释程度是评价分解可靠性的重要指标,一般解释程度高于50%就表明本文农户收入决定方程的变量因素很好地解释了收入不平等
(7)根据农户收入决定方程估计的系数乘上对应变量,将相关性较强的加总合并为新变量