易地扶贫搬迁、生计资本与农户收入不平等——来自陕南的证据
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摘要
"十三五"易地扶贫搬迁既强调精准脱贫,又要避免落入"政策陷阱",在消除绝对贫困的同时谨防农户收入不平等导致的相对贫困风险。本文利用2015年的陕南入户调查数据,建立农户收入决定模型,探索农户收入水平的影响因素,并基于夏普利值过程进行收入不平等的回归分解,量化了各因素在不收入不平等上对收入不平等的贡献程度。结果表明,搬迁政策有效破解了"一方水土养不起一方人"的发展困境,在实现贫困户有效增收的同时也在一定程度加剧了低收入群体的收入差距;五大生计资本对农户收入水平的影响及收入不平等的贡献度也不尽相同,生计资本在不同收入水平上对收入不平等的影响通过政策因素得以强化。本文为后续加强精准施策和精细管理提供启示。
The "13th Five-year Plan" proposed the relocation for poverty alleviation as an important measure of targeted poverty alleviation. With the implementation of relocation to eliminate the absolute poverty, however, it is necessary to pay special attention to prevent "policy trap" caused by the enlargement of income inequality of rural household. This paper uses the first-hand survey data from the Southern Shanxi Province to establish a household income model to explore the determinants of income. Then, this paper conducts income inequality analysis based on the decomposition of the Shapley Value process to quantify the contribution of each factor to income inequality in different quantile. The results show that the relocation policy not only increases rural household's income significantly, but also contributes to income inequality among the poor. Households' livelihood capitals have different effects on both the increase of income and inequality. Moreover, the policy also strengthens the impacts of capital on income inequality.
The "13th Five-year Plan" proposed the relocation for poverty alleviation as an important measure of targeted poverty alleviation. With the implementation of relocation to eliminate the absolute poverty, however, it is necessary to pay special attention to prevent "policy trap" caused by the enlargement of income inequality of rural household. This paper uses the first-hand survey data from the Southern Shanxi Province to establish a household income model to explore the determinants of income. Then, this paper conducts income inequality analysis based on the decomposition of the Shapley Value process to quantify the contribution of each factor to income inequality in different quantile. The results show that the relocation policy not only increases rural household's income significantly, but also contributes to income inequality among the poor. Households' livelihood capitals have different effects on both the increase of income and inequality. Moreover, the policy also strengthens the impacts of capital on income inequality.
引文
1.Jalan J.,Ravallion M.,Behavioral responses to risk in rural China.Journal of Development Economics,2001,66(1):23～49
2.Zhang Y.,Wan G.,The impact of growth and inequality on rural poverty in China.Journal of Comparative Economics,2006,34(4):694～712
3.Wang C.,Wan G.,Income polarization in China:Trends and changes.China Economic Review,2015,36:58～72
4.Wan G.H.,Changes in regional inequality in rural China:decomposing the Gini index by income sources.Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,2001,45(3):361～381
5.Wan G.,Zhangyue Zhou.,Income Inequality in Rural China:Regression-based Decomposition Using Household Data.Review of Development Economics,2005,9(1):107～120
6.Goh C.C.,Luo X.,Zhu N.,Income growth,inequality and poverty reduction:A case study of eight provinces in China.China Economic Review,2009,20(3):485～496
7.Li J.,Feldman M.W.,Li S.,et al.Rural household income and inequality under the Sloping Land Conversion Program in western China.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2011,108(19):7721
8.Morduch J.,Sicular T.,Rethinking Inequality Decomposition,with Evidence from Rural China.The Economic Journal,2002,112(476):93～106
9.Shorrocks A.F,.Decomposition procedures for distributional analysis:a unified framework based on the Shapley value.mimeo,Department of Economics,University of Essex,1999
10.Li C.,Zheng H.,Li S.,et al.Impacts of conservation and human development policy across stakeholders and scales.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2015,112(24):7,396～401
11.Shorrocks A.F.,Inequality Decomposition by Factor Components.Econometrica,1982,50(1):193～211
12.Wan G.H.,University U.N.,Regression-based inequalitydecomposition:pitfalls and a solution procedure.Working Paper,2002
13.陈斌开,曹文举.从机会均等到结果平等:中国收入分配现状与出路.经济社会体制比较,2013(6):44～59
14.严登才.搬迁前后水库移民生计资本的实证对比分析.现代经济探讨,2011(6):59～63
15.胡静,杨云彦.大型工程非自愿移民的人力资本失灵——对南水北调中线工程的实证分析.经济评论,2009(4):74～80
16.许庆,田士超,徐志刚等.农地制度、土地细碎化与农民收入不平等.经济研究,2008(2):83～92
17.程名望,JinYanhong,盖庆恩等.中国农户收入不平等及其决定因素——基于微观农户数据的回归分解.经济学:季刊,2016(3):1253～1274
18.张敬石,郭沛.中国农村金融发展对农村内部收入差距的影响——基于VAR模型的分析.农业技术经济,2011(1):34～41
19.孙敬水,于思源.物质资本、人力资本、政治资本与农村居民收入不平等——基于全国31个省份2852份农户问卷调查的数据分析.中南财经政法大学学报,2014(5):141～149
20.赵剑治,陆铭.关系对农村收入差距的贡献及其地区差异——一项基于回归的分解分析.经济学:季刊,2009,9(4):363～390
21.何金财,王文春.关系与中国家庭财产差距——基于回归的夏普里值分解分析.中国农村经济,2016(5):29～42
22.姚洪心,王喜意.劳动力流动、教育水平、扶贫政策与农村收入差距——一个基于multinomial logit模型的微观实证研究.管理世界,2009(9):80～90
23.程名望,史清华,JinYanhong等.农户收入差距及其根源:模型与实证.管理世界,2015(7):17～28
24.李聪,柳玮,黄谦.陕南移民搬迁背景下农户生计资本的现状与影响因素分析.当代经济科学,2014(6):106～112
25.陈胜东,蔡静远,廖文梅.易地扶贫搬迁对农户减贫效应实证分析——基于赣南原中央苏区农户的调研.农林经济管理学报,2016,15(6):632～640
26.金梅,申云.易地扶贫搬迁模式与农户生计资本变动——基于准实验的政策评估.广东财经大学学报,2017,32(5):70～81
27.赵亮,张世伟.农村内部收入不平等变动的成因——基于回归分解的研究途径.人口学刊,2011(5):50～57
28.郭继强,姜俪,陆利丽.工资差异分解方法述评.经济学:季刊,2011,10(2):363～414
29.万广华.解释中国农村区域间的收入不平等:一种基于回归方程的分解方法.经济研究,2004(8):117～127
30.万广华.不平等的度量与分解.经济学:季刊,2008,8(4):347～368
31.刘伟,黎洁,李聪等.移民搬迁农户的贫困类型及影响因素分析——基于陕南安康的抽样调查.中南财经政法大学学报,2015,213(6):41～48
32.白雪梅.教育与收入不平等:中国的经验研究.管理世界,2004(6):53～58
33.王瑜,汪三贵.基于夏普里值过程的农村居民收入差距分解.中国人口·资源与环境,2011(8):15～21
(1)贷款占当年家庭总消费比重,数值可大于1
(2)单独引入各项资本的交互项导致模型解释变量过多、自由度损失等问题,且不是本文关注的核心
(3)以加权平均衡量农户生计资本方法详见李聪等(2014)
(4)半对数模型中,解释变量对被解释变量的影响程度为■
(5)比如所有家庭成员健康状况从“不健康”提升到“一般”,量化指标数值提高0.5
(6)解释程度是评价分解可靠性的重要指标,一般解释程度高于50%就表明本文农户收入决定方程的变量因素很好地解释了收入不平等
(7)根据农户收入决定方程估计的系数乘上对应变量,将相关性较强的加总合并为新变量
2.Zhang Y.,Wan G.,The impact of growth and inequality on rural poverty in China.Journal of Comparative Economics,2006,34(4):694～712
3.Wang C.,Wan G.,Income polarization in China:Trends and changes.China Economic Review,2015,36:58～72
4.Wan G.H.,Changes in regional inequality in rural China:decomposing the Gini index by income sources.Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,2001,45(3):361～381
5.Wan G.,Zhangyue Zhou.,Income Inequality in Rural China:Regression-based Decomposition Using Household Data.Review of Development Economics,2005,9(1):107～120
6.Goh C.C.,Luo X.,Zhu N.,Income growth,inequality and poverty reduction:A case study of eight provinces in China.China Economic Review,2009,20(3):485～496
7.Li J.,Feldman M.W.,Li S.,et al.Rural household income and inequality under the Sloping Land Conversion Program in western China.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2011,108(19):7721
8.Morduch J.,Sicular T.,Rethinking Inequality Decomposition,with Evidence from Rural China.The Economic Journal,2002,112(476):93～106
9.Shorrocks A.F,.Decomposition procedures for distributional analysis:a unified framework based on the Shapley value.mimeo,Department of Economics,University of Essex,1999
10.Li C.,Zheng H.,Li S.,et al.Impacts of conservation and human development policy across stakeholders and scales.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2015,112(24):7,396～401
11.Shorrocks A.F.,Inequality Decomposition by Factor Components.Econometrica,1982,50(1):193～211
12.Wan G.H.,University U.N.,Regression-based inequalitydecomposition:pitfalls and a solution procedure.Working Paper,2002
13.陈斌开,曹文举.从机会均等到结果平等:中国收入分配现状与出路.经济社会体制比较,2013(6):44～59
14.严登才.搬迁前后水库移民生计资本的实证对比分析.现代经济探讨,2011(6):59～63
15.胡静,杨云彦.大型工程非自愿移民的人力资本失灵——对南水北调中线工程的实证分析.经济评论,2009(4):74～80
16.许庆,田士超,徐志刚等.农地制度、土地细碎化与农民收入不平等.经济研究,2008(2):83～92
17.程名望,JinYanhong,盖庆恩等.中国农户收入不平等及其决定因素——基于微观农户数据的回归分解.经济学:季刊,2016(3):1253～1274
18.张敬石,郭沛.中国农村金融发展对农村内部收入差距的影响——基于VAR模型的分析.农业技术经济,2011(1):34～41
19.孙敬水,于思源.物质资本、人力资本、政治资本与农村居民收入不平等——基于全国31个省份2852份农户问卷调查的数据分析.中南财经政法大学学报,2014(5):141～149
20.赵剑治,陆铭.关系对农村收入差距的贡献及其地区差异——一项基于回归的分解分析.经济学:季刊,2009,9(4):363～390
21.何金财,王文春.关系与中国家庭财产差距——基于回归的夏普里值分解分析.中国农村经济,2016(5):29～42
22.姚洪心,王喜意.劳动力流动、教育水平、扶贫政策与农村收入差距——一个基于multinomial logit模型的微观实证研究.管理世界,2009(9):80～90
23.程名望,史清华,JinYanhong等.农户收入差距及其根源:模型与实证.管理世界,2015(7):17～28
24.李聪,柳玮,黄谦.陕南移民搬迁背景下农户生计资本的现状与影响因素分析.当代经济科学,2014(6):106～112
25.陈胜东,蔡静远,廖文梅.易地扶贫搬迁对农户减贫效应实证分析——基于赣南原中央苏区农户的调研.农林经济管理学报,2016,15(6):632～640
26.金梅,申云.易地扶贫搬迁模式与农户生计资本变动——基于准实验的政策评估.广东财经大学学报,2017,32(5):70～81
27.赵亮,张世伟.农村内部收入不平等变动的成因——基于回归分解的研究途径.人口学刊,2011(5):50～57
28.郭继强,姜俪,陆利丽.工资差异分解方法述评.经济学:季刊,2011,10(2):363～414
29.万广华.解释中国农村区域间的收入不平等:一种基于回归方程的分解方法.经济研究,2004(8):117～127
30.万广华.不平等的度量与分解.经济学:季刊,2008,8(4):347～368
31.刘伟,黎洁,李聪等.移民搬迁农户的贫困类型及影响因素分析——基于陕南安康的抽样调查.中南财经政法大学学报,2015,213(6):41～48
32.白雪梅.教育与收入不平等:中国的经验研究.管理世界,2004(6):53～58
33.王瑜,汪三贵.基于夏普里值过程的农村居民收入差距分解.中国人口·资源与环境,2011(8):15～21
(1)贷款占当年家庭总消费比重,数值可大于1
(2)单独引入各项资本的交互项导致模型解释变量过多、自由度损失等问题,且不是本文关注的核心
(3)以加权平均衡量农户生计资本方法详见李聪等(2014)
(4)半对数模型中,解释变量对被解释变量的影响程度为■
(5)比如所有家庭成员健康状况从“不健康”提升到“一般”,量化指标数值提高0.5
(6)解释程度是评价分解可靠性的重要指标,一般解释程度高于50%就表明本文农户收入决定方程的变量因素很好地解释了收入不平等
(7)根据农户收入决定方程估计的系数乘上对应变量,将相关性较强的加总合并为新变量