人类活动对江汉湖群时空演变影响及关联规则发现
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摘要
湖泊是水资源中的重要组成部分.湖泊演变中同时存在增加和衰减两种状态,湖泊面积净变化是湖泊演变双向变化的结果.以江汉湖群为例,对1984—2014年间湖泊分布及演变与人类活动间的关联展开分析.结果表明,在1998年洪水后实施"退耕还湖"工程对湖泊保护与恢复有着积极作用.此外,引入空间自相关分析与热点探测方法对湖泊时空演变规律进行探索.比较了近30年来湖泊增长与衰亡的空间相关性,对表现为显著聚集特征的湖泊衰减现象进行热点探测,获取湖泊衰减聚集区的位置,并进一步探索其形成原因.最后,对社会经济要素与湖泊分布及衰减之间的关联规则进行挖掘,获取湖泊演变中所蕴含的社会经济规律,从而对江汉湖群的生态保护与修复工作提供决策辅助.结果表明,湖泊分布地区往往伴随着人口聚集,农业产量尤其是水产品生产水平位于区域前列.但随着现代化发展与农业结构调整,第一产业尤其是渔业的发展对当地湖泊资源的依赖逐渐减弱.湖泊衰减主要发生在以传统粗放型生产方式为主的农村地区,短时期内当地基础农业的快速发展需要以湖泊资源的过度开发利用为代价.
Lake is an important component of water resources. Lakes have two statusesexpanding and shrinking in the process of evolution, which and lead to neat changes in the area of lakes are the product of bidirectional changes caused by the evolution of the lakes.Taking Jianghan Lakes clusters as an example, the study conducts an analyzes sis of the correlation between distribution and evolution of lakes and human activities from 1984 to 2014. The results show that implementing the project of "returning farmland to lakes" played a positive role in protecting and recovering the lakes after the flood of 1998. In addition, spatial autocorrelation analysis and hot spot detection method were are introduced to explore the temporal and spatial evolution of lakes. The study carries out a hot-spot detection of lake shrinking showing conspicuous characteristics of aggregation by comparing spatial correlation between lake expanding and lake declining in recent 30 years to locate lake shrinking cluster area, and and further the forming reasons are further exploreds their forming reasons. At last, the study delves into the association rules between socio-economic factors and distribution and shrinking of lakes. By exploring the socio-economic regular patterns contained in the evolution of lakes, the decision-making assistance of ecological protection and restoration in Jianghan Basin can be summed up. The results show that lake distribution area is often accompanied by aggregation of population with agricultural yields, especially productivity of aquatic products, at the forefront in the region. But with the advancement of modernization and the adjustment of agricultural structure, primary industry, especially the growth of the fishing industry shows a weaken dependence on local lake resources. Lake shrinking mainly happens in rural areas featuring traditional extensive mode of production., And and rapid expansion of agriculture within a short time is generally at the cost of the overexploitation of lake resources.
Lake is an important component of water resources. Lakes have two statusesexpanding and shrinking in the process of evolution, which and lead to neat changes in the area of lakes are the product of bidirectional changes caused by the evolution of the lakes.Taking Jianghan Lakes clusters as an example, the study conducts an analyzes sis of the correlation between distribution and evolution of lakes and human activities from 1984 to 2014. The results show that implementing the project of "returning farmland to lakes" played a positive role in protecting and recovering the lakes after the flood of 1998. In addition, spatial autocorrelation analysis and hot spot detection method were are introduced to explore the temporal and spatial evolution of lakes. The study carries out a hot-spot detection of lake shrinking showing conspicuous characteristics of aggregation by comparing spatial correlation between lake expanding and lake declining in recent 30 years to locate lake shrinking cluster area, and and further the forming reasons are further exploreds their forming reasons. At last, the study delves into the association rules between socio-economic factors and distribution and shrinking of lakes. By exploring the socio-economic regular patterns contained in the evolution of lakes, the decision-making assistance of ecological protection and restoration in Jianghan Basin can be summed up. The results show that lake distribution area is often accompanied by aggregation of population with agricultural yields, especially productivity of aquatic products, at the forefront in the region. But with the advancement of modernization and the adjustment of agricultural structure, primary industry, especially the growth of the fishing industry shows a weaken dependence on local lake resources. Lake shrinking mainly happens in rural areas featuring traditional extensive mode of production., And and rapid expansion of agriculture within a short time is generally at the cost of the overexploitation of lake resources.
引文
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[13] Berry M J, Linoff G. Data mining techniques:for marketing, sales, and customer support[M].[s.l.]:John Wiley&Sons, Inc, 1997, 17(1):45-53.
[14]魏显虎,杜耘,蔡述明,吴胜军,薛怀平.湖北省湖泊演变及治理对策[J].湖泊科学,2007, 19(5):530-536.Wei X H, Du Y, Cai S M, Wu S J, Xue H P. On the evolution of lakes in Hubei Province and countermeasures[J]. Journal of Lake Sciences, 2007, 19(5):530-536.(in Chinese)
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[17]张梦珂,刘艳芳,安子豪,危小建,陈奕云.武汉城市化进程对湖泊景观格局的空间非平稳性影响分析[J].地理信息世界,2016, 23(3):53-59.Zhang M K, Liu Y F, An Z H, Wei X J, Chen Y Y. Analysis of the spatial non-stationarity relationship between urbanization and landscape pattern of lakes in Wuhan City[J]. Geomatics World, 2016, 23(3):53-59.(in Chinese)
[18]钱澄,张虹.武汉城市化进程中的湖泊侵占问题及对策[J].江汉大学学报(社会科学版),2014,31(5):97-101.Qian C, Zhang H. Countermeasures on lake encroachment in the process of Wuhan’s urbanization[J]. Journal of Jianghan University(Social Science Edition), 2014, 31(5):97-101.(in Chinese)
[19]邹开鹏.荆州市湖泊环境现状与治理对策[J].科技传播,2013(20):134-135.Zou K P. Present situation and countermeasures on lake environment in Jingzhou City[J].Public Communication of Science&Technology, 2013(20):134-135.(in Chinese)
[20]王宏玉,袁文艺.湖泊生态保护中的污染治理:基于梁子湖区的调查[J].湖北经济学院学报(人文社会科学版),2016, 13(1):89-90.Wang H Y, Yuan W Y. Pollution control of lake ecological protection:a case study based on Liangzihu Lake[J]. Journal of Hubei University of Economics(Humanities and Social Sciences),2016, 13(1):89-90.(in Chinese)
[21] Dunn J C. A fuzzy relative of the ISODATA process and its use in detecting compact wellseparated clusters[J]. Journal of Cybernetics, 1973, 3(3):32-57.
[22] Agrawal R. Mining association rules between sets of items in large databases[J]. Acm Sigmod Record, 1993, 22(2):207-216.
[2] Cardona M, Schwarz A, Yurtoglu B B, Zulehner C. Quantitative assessment of the contribution of climate variability and human activity to streamflow alteration in Dongting Lake,China[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2015, 35(1):70-95.
[3] Wu D, Zhou A, Liu J, Chen X, Wei H, Sun H, Yu J, Bloemendal J, Chen F. Changing intensity of human activity over the last 2,000 years recorded by the magnetic characteristics of sediments from Xingyun Lake, Yunnan, China[J]. Journal of Paleolimnology, 2015, 53(1):47-60.
[4]张清慧,董旭辉,羊向东.湖北梁子湖近百年来环境演变历史及驱动因素分析[J].湖泊科学,2016,28(3):545-553.Zhang Q H, Dong X H, Yang X D. Environmental evolution of Liangzi Lake and its driving factors over the past 100 years, Hubei Province[J]. Journal of Lake Sciences, 2016, 28(3):545-553.(in Chinese)
[5]陈海珍,石铁柱,邬国锋.武汉市湖泊景观动态遥感分析(1973-2013年)[J].湖泊科学,2015, 27(4):745-754.Chen H Z, Shi T Z, Wu G F. The dynamic analysis of lake landscape of Wuhan City in recent40 years[J]. Journal of Lake Sciences, 2015, 27(4):745-754.(in Chinese)
[6]张媛,张琍,陈楠,黄丹,望志方.基于湖北省12个中小型湖泊的水环境遥感监测应用示范[J].中国环境监测,2017, 33(1):131-136.Zhang Y, Zhang L, Chen N, Huang D, Wang Z F. Application demonstration of water environment remote sensing monitoring for small to medium-sized lakes in Hubei Province[J].Environmental Monitoring in China, 2017, 33(1):131-136.(in Chinese)
[7] Williamson C E, Saros J E, Vincent W F, Smold J P. Lakes and reservoirs as sentinels,integrators, and regulators of climate change[J]. Limnology&Oceanography, 2009, 54(6):2273-2282.
[8] Li C, Zhou J, Ouyang S, Wang C, Liu Y. Water resources optimal allocation based on largescale reservoirs in the upper reaches of Yangtze River[J]. Water Resources Management, 2015,29(7):2171-2187.
[9] Mcfeeters S K. The use of the normalized difference water index(NDWI)in the delineation of open water features[J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 1996, 17(7):1425-1432.
[10]郭生练,黄国雄,王忠法,文坤斗.湖北省湖泊志[M].武汉:湖北科学技术出版社,2015.
[11] Cliff A D, Ord J K. Spatial Processes:models and applications[M]. London:Pion Limited,1981.
[12] Wulder M, Boots B. Local spatial autocorrelation characteristics of remotely sensed imagery assessed with the Getis statistic[J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 1998, 19(11):2223-2231.
[13] Berry M J, Linoff G. Data mining techniques:for marketing, sales, and customer support[M].[s.l.]:John Wiley&Sons, Inc, 1997, 17(1):45-53.
[14]魏显虎,杜耘,蔡述明,吴胜军,薛怀平.湖北省湖泊演变及治理对策[J].湖泊科学,2007, 19(5):530-536.Wei X H, Du Y, Cai S M, Wu S J, Xue H P. On the evolution of lakes in Hubei Province and countermeasures[J]. Journal of Lake Sciences, 2007, 19(5):530-536.(in Chinese)
[15]张毅,孔祥德,邓宏兵,孔春芳,李文杰.近百年湖北省湖泊演变特征研究[J].湿地科学,2010, 8(1):15-20.Zhang Y, Kong X D, Deng H B, Kong C F, Li W J. Change characteristic of lakes in Hubei Province in the past 100 years[J]. Wetland Science, 2010, 8(1):15-20.(in Chinese)
[16]熊春茂.科学治理保护湖泊服务湖北绿色发展[J].中国水利,2017, 18:9-11.Xiong C M. Providing service for green development by scientific regulation of lakes in Hubei Province[J]. China Water Resources, 2017, 18:9-11.(in Chinese)
[17]张梦珂,刘艳芳,安子豪,危小建,陈奕云.武汉城市化进程对湖泊景观格局的空间非平稳性影响分析[J].地理信息世界,2016, 23(3):53-59.Zhang M K, Liu Y F, An Z H, Wei X J, Chen Y Y. Analysis of the spatial non-stationarity relationship between urbanization and landscape pattern of lakes in Wuhan City[J]. Geomatics World, 2016, 23(3):53-59.(in Chinese)
[18]钱澄,张虹.武汉城市化进程中的湖泊侵占问题及对策[J].江汉大学学报(社会科学版),2014,31(5):97-101.Qian C, Zhang H. Countermeasures on lake encroachment in the process of Wuhan’s urbanization[J]. Journal of Jianghan University(Social Science Edition), 2014, 31(5):97-101.(in Chinese)
[19]邹开鹏.荆州市湖泊环境现状与治理对策[J].科技传播,2013(20):134-135.Zou K P. Present situation and countermeasures on lake environment in Jingzhou City[J].Public Communication of Science&Technology, 2013(20):134-135.(in Chinese)
[20]王宏玉,袁文艺.湖泊生态保护中的污染治理:基于梁子湖区的调查[J].湖北经济学院学报(人文社会科学版),2016, 13(1):89-90.Wang H Y, Yuan W Y. Pollution control of lake ecological protection:a case study based on Liangzihu Lake[J]. Journal of Hubei University of Economics(Humanities and Social Sciences),2016, 13(1):89-90.(in Chinese)
[21] Dunn J C. A fuzzy relative of the ISODATA process and its use in detecting compact wellseparated clusters[J]. Journal of Cybernetics, 1973, 3(3):32-57.
[22] Agrawal R. Mining association rules between sets of items in large databases[J]. Acm Sigmod Record, 1993, 22(2):207-216.