长三角城市群内各城市的城市韧性与经济发展水平的协调性对比研究
|
摘要
以长三角城市群16座地级及以上城市为研究对象,利用层次分析法分别测算了其2007～2016年间的城市韧性与经济发展水平,并基于协调度模型,着重探讨了城市韧性与经济发展水平之间的协调性。结果显示:①10年间,长三角城市群城市韧性度呈波动上升趋势,区域内部城际差异浮动增强,基本呈现"东部高,南北边缘低"的空间分布格局,其中上海市韧性水平最高。②长三角城市群城市经济发展水平总体呈波浪式上升状态,区域内部出现明显的地带性差异,形成以上海、南京、苏州、杭州为中心的圈层式发展格局。③长三角城市群的城市韧性与经济发展水平协调度总体稳定上升,但绝对数值偏小,城际之间存在明显的分化,形成了"东强西弱"的空间格局。④长三角城市群城市韧性与经济发展水平处于动态调适期,70%的城市处于初级协调与勉强协调阶段,只有上海过渡到中级协调阶段。
This paper takes 16 cities of Yangtze River delta as the research object, and uses the analytic hierarchy process and the coordination degree model to calculate urban resilience and economic development level from 2007 to 2016. Based on the coordination degree model, discussed the coordination between urban resilience and economic development level. The results show the following: ①In the past 10 years, the urban resilience of the Yangtze river delta has fluctuated and increased, and the inter-city differences within the region have fluctuated and increased, basically presenting a spatial distribution pattern of "high east, low north and south edge". Shanghai has the strongest comprehensive strength of the city, and its resilience and recovery speed are the fastest ②The urban economic development level of the Yangtze river delta is going up in waves, and there are obvious regional differences within the region, forming a circular development pattern centering on Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou and Hangzhou; ③The coordination degree of urban resilience and economic development of Yangtze river delta is rising steadily on the whole, but the absolute value is relatively small, and there is obvious degree of differentiation between cities, forming the spatial distribution pattern of "strong east and weak west".In the Yangtze River delta region, the urban resilience and economic development level are in a dynamic adjustment period, and 70% of cities are in a preliminary and reluctant coordination stage, while only Shanghai is in the intermediate coordination stage.
This paper takes 16 cities of Yangtze River delta as the research object, and uses the analytic hierarchy process and the coordination degree model to calculate urban resilience and economic development level from 2007 to 2016. Based on the coordination degree model, discussed the coordination between urban resilience and economic development level. The results show the following: ①In the past 10 years, the urban resilience of the Yangtze river delta has fluctuated and increased, and the inter-city differences within the region have fluctuated and increased, basically presenting a spatial distribution pattern of "high east, low north and south edge". Shanghai has the strongest comprehensive strength of the city, and its resilience and recovery speed are the fastest ②The urban economic development level of the Yangtze river delta is going up in waves, and there are obvious regional differences within the region, forming a circular development pattern centering on Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou and Hangzhou; ③The coordination degree of urban resilience and economic development of Yangtze river delta is rising steadily on the whole, but the absolute value is relatively small, and there is obvious degree of differentiation between cities, forming the spatial distribution pattern of "strong east and weak west".In the Yangtze River delta region, the urban resilience and economic development level are in a dynamic adjustment period, and 70% of cities are in a preliminary and reluctant coordination stage, while only Shanghai is in the intermediate coordination stage.
引文
[1] 汤放华, 汤慧, 古杰. 韧性城市的概念框架及城乡规划的响应[J]. 北京规划建设, 2018, 32(02): 11-13.
[2] 张明斗, 冯晓青. 韧性城市: 城市可持续发展的新模式[J]. 郑州大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2018, 51(02): 59-63.
[3] 邵亦文, 徐江. 城市韧性: 基于国际文献综述的概念解析[J]. 国际城市规划, 2015, 30(02): 48-54.
[4] Meerow S, Newell J P, Stults M. 城市韧性的定义评述[J]. 城市规划学刊, 2016, 60(03): 125-126.
[5] Klein RJT, Nicholls RJ, Thomalla F. Resilience to Natural Hazards: How Useful is This Concept? [J]. Environmental Hazards, 2003, 5(01): 35-45.
[6] Holling C S. Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems [J]. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst, 1973(04): 1-23.
[7] 廖茂林, 李菲菲, 高佳琳. 低碳韧性城市:可持续发展的必由之路[J]. 城市, 2017, 30(11): 60-66.
[8] 谢起慧. 发达国家建设韧性城市的政策启示[J]. 科学决策, 2017, 24(04): 60-75.
[9] 陈玉梅, 李康晨. 国外公共管理视角下韧性城市研究进展与实践探析[J]. 中国行政管理, 2017, 33(01): 137-143.
[10] The CPC Central Committee, the State Council. National New Urbanization Plan (2014-2020) [N]. Xinhua News Agency, 2014-03-16.
[11] United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), Making Cities Resilient EB/OL. [2017-2-19]. http: //www. Unisdr. org/we/campaign/cities.
[12] 孙阳, 张落成, 姚士谋. 基于社会生态系统视角的长三角地级城市韧性度评价[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2017, 27(08): 151-158.
[13] 方东平, 李在上, 李楠,等. 城市韧性——基于“三度空间下系统的系统”的思考[J]. 土木工程学报, 2017, 50(07): 1-7.
[14] 刘江艳, 曾忠平. 弹性城市评价指标体系构建及其实证研究[J]. 电子政务, 2014, 11(03): 82-88.
[15] 余中元, 李波, 张新时. 社会生态系统及脆弱性驱动机制分析[J]. 生态学报, 2014, 34(07): 1870-1879.
[16] 华弼天, 孙立锋. 变化与选择: 全球金融危机对宁波的影响和应对[J]. 宁波大学学报(人文科学版), 2009, 22(03): 102-106.
[17] 钱少华, 徐国强, 沈阳,等. 关于上海建设韧性城市的路径探索[J]. 城市规划学刊, 2017, 61(S1): 109-118.
[18] 陈利, 朱喜钢, 孙洁. 韧性城市的基本理念、作用机制及规划愿景[J]. 现代城市研究, 2017, 32(09): 18-24.
[19] 李燕, 贺灿飞. 基于“3D”框架的长江三角洲城市群经济空间演化分析[J]. 经济地理, 2013, 33(05): 43-46+66.
[20] 朱江丽, 李子联. 长三角城市群产业-人口-空间耦合协调发展研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2015, 25(02): 75-82.
[21] 赵冬月, 施波, 陈以琴,等. 协同管理对城市韧性增强机制的影响[J]. 管理评论, 2016, 28(08): 207-214.
①根据2016年5月国务院批准的《长江三角洲城市群发展规划》,长三角城市群包括:上海、南京、无锡、常州、苏州、南通、盐城、扬州、镇江、泰州、杭州、宁波、嘉兴、湖州、绍兴、金华、舟山、台州、合肥、芜湖、马鞍山、铜陵、安庆、滁州、池州、宣城26市。本文重点对长三角城市群的16座核心城市进行研究。
[2] 张明斗, 冯晓青. 韧性城市: 城市可持续发展的新模式[J]. 郑州大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2018, 51(02): 59-63.
[3] 邵亦文, 徐江. 城市韧性: 基于国际文献综述的概念解析[J]. 国际城市规划, 2015, 30(02): 48-54.
[4] Meerow S, Newell J P, Stults M. 城市韧性的定义评述[J]. 城市规划学刊, 2016, 60(03): 125-126.
[5] Klein RJT, Nicholls RJ, Thomalla F. Resilience to Natural Hazards: How Useful is This Concept? [J]. Environmental Hazards, 2003, 5(01): 35-45.
[6] Holling C S. Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems [J]. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst, 1973(04): 1-23.
[7] 廖茂林, 李菲菲, 高佳琳. 低碳韧性城市:可持续发展的必由之路[J]. 城市, 2017, 30(11): 60-66.
[8] 谢起慧. 发达国家建设韧性城市的政策启示[J]. 科学决策, 2017, 24(04): 60-75.
[9] 陈玉梅, 李康晨. 国外公共管理视角下韧性城市研究进展与实践探析[J]. 中国行政管理, 2017, 33(01): 137-143.
[10] The CPC Central Committee, the State Council. National New Urbanization Plan (2014-2020) [N]. Xinhua News Agency, 2014-03-16.
[11] United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), Making Cities Resilient EB/OL. [2017-2-19]. http: //www. Unisdr. org/we/campaign/cities.
[12] 孙阳, 张落成, 姚士谋. 基于社会生态系统视角的长三角地级城市韧性度评价[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2017, 27(08): 151-158.
[13] 方东平, 李在上, 李楠,等. 城市韧性——基于“三度空间下系统的系统”的思考[J]. 土木工程学报, 2017, 50(07): 1-7.
[14] 刘江艳, 曾忠平. 弹性城市评价指标体系构建及其实证研究[J]. 电子政务, 2014, 11(03): 82-88.
[15] 余中元, 李波, 张新时. 社会生态系统及脆弱性驱动机制分析[J]. 生态学报, 2014, 34(07): 1870-1879.
[16] 华弼天, 孙立锋. 变化与选择: 全球金融危机对宁波的影响和应对[J]. 宁波大学学报(人文科学版), 2009, 22(03): 102-106.
[17] 钱少华, 徐国强, 沈阳,等. 关于上海建设韧性城市的路径探索[J]. 城市规划学刊, 2017, 61(S1): 109-118.
[18] 陈利, 朱喜钢, 孙洁. 韧性城市的基本理念、作用机制及规划愿景[J]. 现代城市研究, 2017, 32(09): 18-24.
[19] 李燕, 贺灿飞. 基于“3D”框架的长江三角洲城市群经济空间演化分析[J]. 经济地理, 2013, 33(05): 43-46+66.
[20] 朱江丽, 李子联. 长三角城市群产业-人口-空间耦合协调发展研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2015, 25(02): 75-82.
[21] 赵冬月, 施波, 陈以琴,等. 协同管理对城市韧性增强机制的影响[J]. 管理评论, 2016, 28(08): 207-214.
①根据2016年5月国务院批准的《长江三角洲城市群发展规划》,长三角城市群包括:上海、南京、无锡、常州、苏州、南通、盐城、扬州、镇江、泰州、杭州、宁波、嘉兴、湖州、绍兴、金华、舟山、台州、合肥、芜湖、马鞍山、铜陵、安庆、滁州、池州、宣城26市。本文重点对长三角城市群的16座核心城市进行研究。