摘要
以长三角城市群16座地级及以上城市为研究对象,利用层次分析法分别测算了其2007~2016年间的城市韧性与经济发展水平,并基于协调度模型,着重探讨了城市韧性与经济发展水平之间的协调性。结果显示:①10年间,长三角城市群城市韧性度呈波动上升趋势,区域内部城际差异浮动增强,基本呈现"东部高,南北边缘低"的空间分布格局,其中上海市韧性水平最高。②长三角城市群城市经济发展水平总体呈波浪式上升状态,区域内部出现明显的地带性差异,形成以上海、南京、苏州、杭州为中心的圈层式发展格局。③长三角城市群的城市韧性与经济发展水平协调度总体稳定上升,但绝对数值偏小,城际之间存在明显的分化,形成了"东强西弱"的空间格局。④长三角城市群城市韧性与经济发展水平处于动态调适期,70%的城市处于初级协调与勉强协调阶段,只有上海过渡到中级协调阶段。
This paper takes 16 cities of Yangtze River delta as the research object, and uses the analytic hierarchy process and the coordination degree model to calculate urban resilience and economic development level from 2007 to 2016. Based on the coordination degree model, discussed the coordination between urban resilience and economic development level. The results show the following: ①In the past 10 years, the urban resilience of the Yangtze river delta has fluctuated and increased, and the inter-city differences within the region have fluctuated and increased, basically presenting a spatial distribution pattern of "high east, low north and south edge". Shanghai has the strongest comprehensive strength of the city, and its resilience and recovery speed are the fastest ②The urban economic development level of the Yangtze river delta is going up in waves, and there are obvious regional differences within the region, forming a circular development pattern centering on Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou and Hangzhou; ③The coordination degree of urban resilience and economic development of Yangtze river delta is rising steadily on the whole, but the absolute value is relatively small, and there is obvious degree of differentiation between cities, forming the spatial distribution pattern of "strong east and weak west".In the Yangtze River delta region, the urban resilience and economic development level are in a dynamic adjustment period, and 70% of cities are in a preliminary and reluctant coordination stage, while only Shanghai is in the intermediate coordination stage.
引文
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①根据2016年5月国务院批准的《长江三角洲城市群发展规划》,长三角城市群包括:上海、南京、无锡、常州、苏州、南通、盐城、扬州、镇江、泰州、杭州、宁波、嘉兴、湖州、绍兴、金华、舟山、台州、合肥、芜湖、马鞍山、铜陵、安庆、滁州、池州、宣城26市。本文重点对长三角城市群的16座核心城市进行研究。