板块驱动型城市产业招商模式优化建模及仿真——以大西安为例
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摘要
"板块经济"("功能区经济")是中国城市发展的重要路径,有利于激发城市经济活力,但其碎片化布局带来板块间的不良竞争以及城市整体利益的损耗。在国家引导经济高质量发展的新阶段,依靠板块经济驱动的城市发展,急需通过以项目招商及落地为核心环节的板块间产业资源配置关系调整,实现城市经济利益的整体优化。为此提出"建立产业项目招商协调机制有利于多板块城市经济利益整体提升"的研究命题,选择大西安城市板块产业发展及招商为对象,借助多主体建模方法和NetLogo仿真平台,分别建立"谁招商、谁受益"和"大招商、大受益"两种模式下的城市产业招商模型,并开发对应的仿真运行程序。仿真结果表明,产业项目招商协调机制具有可行性,且在给定参数条件下,大西安城市板块间产业项目流转补偿率的满意区间为[10%,25%]。基于大西安的多板块城市产业招商建模及仿真,既为大西安产业招商模式优化的政策改进提供了论证,也为同类问题研究奠定了开展政策仿真的基础。
The "development zone economy"("functional area economy") is an important path for development of cities in China and is helpful to boost urban economy. However, the fragmented distribution of development zones in a city brings negative competition among them and does harm to interests of the city as a whole. In the new era of high quality oriented economic development, urban de-velopment driven by development zone economy needs to upgrade to achieve an overall optimization of urban economic interests by ad-justing industrial resource allocation among development zones with the focus on way of attracting and locating industrial project. The proposition that establishment of a coordination mechanism for industrial project attracting is good to promote the overall urban economic interests, and industrial development and project attracting of Greater Xi 'an with dozens of development zones are chosen as the research objects. By employing multi-agent modeling method and NetLogo simulation platform, two models of urban industrial project at-tracting are built, i.e., "who firstly introduces a project, who gets it" and "who mostly matches a project introduced, who gets it", and the corresponding simulation programs are developed as well. The simulation results indicate that the proposed coordination mechanism for industrial project attracting is feasible, and the satisfactory compensation rate interval under given parameters for industrial project turnover among relative development zones of Greater Xi'an is [10%, 25%]. Modeling and simulation of industrial project attracting for development zones driven cities based on Greater Xi'an lay a foundation both for policy improvement of industrial project attracting mode optimization of Greater Xi'an, and for policy simulation of similar problems.
The "development zone economy"("functional area economy") is an important path for development of cities in China and is helpful to boost urban economy. However, the fragmented distribution of development zones in a city brings negative competition among them and does harm to interests of the city as a whole. In the new era of high quality oriented economic development, urban de-velopment driven by development zone economy needs to upgrade to achieve an overall optimization of urban economic interests by ad-justing industrial resource allocation among development zones with the focus on way of attracting and locating industrial project. The proposition that establishment of a coordination mechanism for industrial project attracting is good to promote the overall urban economic interests, and industrial development and project attracting of Greater Xi 'an with dozens of development zones are chosen as the research objects. By employing multi-agent modeling method and NetLogo simulation platform, two models of urban industrial project at-tracting are built, i.e., "who firstly introduces a project, who gets it" and "who mostly matches a project introduced, who gets it", and the corresponding simulation programs are developed as well. The simulation results indicate that the proposed coordination mechanism for industrial project attracting is feasible, and the satisfactory compensation rate interval under given parameters for industrial project turnover among relative development zones of Greater Xi'an is [10%, 25%]. Modeling and simulation of industrial project attracting for development zones driven cities based on Greater Xi'an lay a foundation both for policy improvement of industrial project attracting mode optimization of Greater Xi'an, and for policy simulation of similar problems.
引文
[1]浙江省发展和改革委员会.承启三十年浙江开发区重新出发[EB/OL].浙江省发展和改革委员会,(2014-11-04)[2017-12-20]. http://www.zjdpc.gov.cn/art/2014/11/4/art_10_684004.html.
[2]丁凤云.全国首个统筹各类开发区的地方法规《江苏省开发区条例》5月1日起施行[EB/OL].荔枝新闻,(2018-04-28)[2018-05-06]. http://news.jstv.com/a/20180428/5ae45631f3ca6264ac 291b64.shtml.
[3]寇晓东,陆瑶.面向重点项目布局的城市开发板块融合发展:以西安市为例[J].陕西行政学院学报,2017(4):45-50.
[4]钟玮,刘洋.基于主体模拟:一种探索公共管理问题的新方法[J].中国行政管理,2017(1):72-78.
[5]刘润姣,蒋涤非,石磊.主体建模技术在城市规划中的应用研究评述[J].城市规划,2016(5):105-112.
[6]李立华.区域乘数效应与中国区域协调发展机制的安排[J].经济评论, 2007(6):125-132.
[7]高丽娜,宋慧勇.新常态背景下区域协调发展机制创新[J].技术经济与管理研究,2017(7):108-112.
[8]王佃利,王桂玲.城市治理中的利益整合机制[J].中国行政管理,2007(8):13-17.
[9]王成城,李红梅,韦守明.区域创新极化效应的城市贡献度———基于分解TW指数的空间计量研究[J].中国科技论坛,2017(8):94-102.
[10]何剑,王欣爱.区域协同视角下长江经济带产业绿色发展研究[J].科技进步与对策,2017(11):41-46.
(1)总用地面积包括建设用地和非建设用地(包括公园、广场等公共用地及历史文物保护用地等)两个部分,可用地面积=建设用地面积×0a土地可用率。土地可用率需结合大西安近10年城市土地使用情况及板块自身发展进行确定。根据《中国统计年鉴》2008-2016年间陕西省城市建设用地情况,近似得到历年西安未建成区面积与城区总面积之比,近两年该比值约为50%,即城市土地可用率约为50%。同时,考虑到大西安各城市板块在设立时间、发展规划、政策支持等方面不同所带来的建设速率差异,其土地使用率也存在差异。对此,本文主要以板块成立时间为依据,设置2000年之前板块建设用地可用率为50%,2000-2010年之间的为70%,2010年以后的为80%。
(1)参考现实税率,设定三种类型产业的税率分别为服务业20%,高新技术产业15%,先进制造业25%,同时设定项目投资成本为投资额的2%。
(1)模型二中,由于项目参与招商的次数多于模型一,其投资成本设定为投资额的4%;前已提及,匹配度乘数效应是对产业集聚乘数的放大,一方面因为后者的估算数据偏低(只有1.09,原因可能是用产业输出乘数替代产业集聚乘数,虽然在一定程度上反映了产业集聚效应的总体水平,但没有完全体现出由单个项目的匹配度所带来的乘数效应,因此做出调整),另一方面也是为了提高针对补偿率的政策仿真灵敏度(以便清晰观察补偿率的相应区间),其在仿真中具体设定为indexofPI×(matchindex(max)/matchindex(min)),其中matchindex(max)为项目参与的三次招商中的匹配度最大值,matchindex(min)为匹配度最小值。
[2]丁凤云.全国首个统筹各类开发区的地方法规《江苏省开发区条例》5月1日起施行[EB/OL].荔枝新闻,(2018-04-28)[2018-05-06]. http://news.jstv.com/a/20180428/5ae45631f3ca6264ac 291b64.shtml.
[3]寇晓东,陆瑶.面向重点项目布局的城市开发板块融合发展:以西安市为例[J].陕西行政学院学报,2017(4):45-50.
[4]钟玮,刘洋.基于主体模拟:一种探索公共管理问题的新方法[J].中国行政管理,2017(1):72-78.
[5]刘润姣,蒋涤非,石磊.主体建模技术在城市规划中的应用研究评述[J].城市规划,2016(5):105-112.
[6]李立华.区域乘数效应与中国区域协调发展机制的安排[J].经济评论, 2007(6):125-132.
[7]高丽娜,宋慧勇.新常态背景下区域协调发展机制创新[J].技术经济与管理研究,2017(7):108-112.
[8]王佃利,王桂玲.城市治理中的利益整合机制[J].中国行政管理,2007(8):13-17.
[9]王成城,李红梅,韦守明.区域创新极化效应的城市贡献度———基于分解TW指数的空间计量研究[J].中国科技论坛,2017(8):94-102.
[10]何剑,王欣爱.区域协同视角下长江经济带产业绿色发展研究[J].科技进步与对策,2017(11):41-46.
(1)总用地面积包括建设用地和非建设用地(包括公园、广场等公共用地及历史文物保护用地等)两个部分,可用地面积=建设用地面积×0a土地可用率。土地可用率需结合大西安近10年城市土地使用情况及板块自身发展进行确定。根据《中国统计年鉴》2008-2016年间陕西省城市建设用地情况,近似得到历年西安未建成区面积与城区总面积之比,近两年该比值约为50%,即城市土地可用率约为50%。同时,考虑到大西安各城市板块在设立时间、发展规划、政策支持等方面不同所带来的建设速率差异,其土地使用率也存在差异。对此,本文主要以板块成立时间为依据,设置2000年之前板块建设用地可用率为50%,2000-2010年之间的为70%,2010年以后的为80%。
(1)参考现实税率,设定三种类型产业的税率分别为服务业20%,高新技术产业15%,先进制造业25%,同时设定项目投资成本为投资额的2%。
(1)模型二中,由于项目参与招商的次数多于模型一,其投资成本设定为投资额的4%;前已提及,匹配度乘数效应是对产业集聚乘数的放大,一方面因为后者的估算数据偏低(只有1.09,原因可能是用产业输出乘数替代产业集聚乘数,虽然在一定程度上反映了产业集聚效应的总体水平,但没有完全体现出由单个项目的匹配度所带来的乘数效应,因此做出调整),另一方面也是为了提高针对补偿率的政策仿真灵敏度(以便清晰观察补偿率的相应区间),其在仿真中具体设定为indexofPI×(matchindex(max)/matchindex(min)),其中matchindex(max)为项目参与的三次招商中的匹配度最大值,matchindex(min)为匹配度最小值。