基于面板Logistic增长模型中国城镇化演进特征与趋势分析
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摘要
明确中国当前城镇化状况并据此预测城镇化未来发展方向,将有利于认清当前发展形势并深刻理解党中央相关政策,进而促进中国城镇化健康持续发展。本文改进了面板数据聚类的距离测度方式,对中国各省城镇化率数据进行聚类分析,进而在兼顾特殊性与一般性的前提下拟合中国城镇化率的Logistic增长曲线并求出中国城镇化发展过程中的阶段分界点。总体来看,中国正处于城镇化发展的快速发展阶段后期,至2050年中国城镇化率将逐渐接近中等发达国家的城镇化水平。文章提出如下建议:1)着力开展集约型城镇化建设;2)加快并扩大城市群建设;3)城镇化建设重心应逐渐向内陆转移;4)加大对西南部省份的城镇化发展建设力度。
It will be benefit for recognizing current situation and understanding relevant policies issued by the Central Committee of the Communist of China to clear China's urbanization condition and predict future development trends and directions,which will promote sustainable development of China's urbanization as well. We improve the distance measuring method by panel data cluster analysis to analyze the urbanization in China. According to the analysis,the urbanization of each class is regressed using panel data Logistic equation,with practicality and generality being taken into account. At the same time,this paper shows cut-off points in the whole process of urbanization in China. The result presents that China is in the later stage of Acceleration period of urbanization. This paper indicates that urbanization level in China will close to that of moderately developed country gradually by 2050. This paper proposes to,(1)focus on the construction of intensive urbanization,(2)speed up and enlarge the construction of urban agglomeration,(3)focus on the shift of urbanization construction to inland,(4)increase construction power of urbanization in Southwest area.
It will be benefit for recognizing current situation and understanding relevant policies issued by the Central Committee of the Communist of China to clear China's urbanization condition and predict future development trends and directions,which will promote sustainable development of China's urbanization as well. We improve the distance measuring method by panel data cluster analysis to analyze the urbanization in China. According to the analysis,the urbanization of each class is regressed using panel data Logistic equation,with practicality and generality being taken into account. At the same time,this paper shows cut-off points in the whole process of urbanization in China. The result presents that China is in the later stage of Acceleration period of urbanization. This paper indicates that urbanization level in China will close to that of moderately developed country gradually by 2050. This paper proposes to,(1)focus on the construction of intensive urbanization,(2)speed up and enlarge the construction of urban agglomeration,(3)focus on the shift of urbanization construction to inland,(4)increase construction power of urbanization in Southwest area.
引文
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[4]王帅,滕玉成.基于Logistic模型的县域城镇化率及其推进预测——以济南市平阴县为例[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(社会科学版),2014,33(6):32-37.
[5]赵文英,葛礼霞.基于改进Logistic模型的黑龙江省城镇化水平预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2013,43(13):44-49.
[6]陈彦光,周一星.城镇化Logistic过程的阶段划分及空间解释——对Northam曲线的修正与发展[J].经济地理,2005,25(6):817-822.
[7]冯年华,宣卫红,戴军,王书明.基于Logistic模型的我国城镇化演进轨迹分析[J].生态经济,2015,31(7):76-79.
[8]王建军.城镇化发展阶段划分[J].地理学报,2009,64(2):177-188.
[9]陈素平,张乐勤,许信旺.基于Logistic模型的中国城镇化演进阶段特征及趋势探析[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(2):384-390.
[10]张乐勤,张勇.基于Logistic模型的中国城镇化快速演进期时长、速度及启示[J].河南大学学报(自然版),2015,45(5):550-555.
[11]Bonzo D.C.,Hermosilla A.Y.Clustering Panel Data via Perturbed Adaptive Simulated Annealing and Genetic Algorithms[J].Advances in Complex Systems,2002(4):339-360.
[12]Ren J.,Shi Sh L.Multivariable Panel Data Ordinal Clustering and Its Application in Competitive Strategy Identification of Appliance-wiring Listed Companies[C].International Conference on Management Science&Engineering(16 th),Moscow,Russia,2009:253-258.
[13]李因果,何晓群.面板数据聚类方法及应用[J].统计研究,2010,27(9):73-79.
[14]韩本毅.国城市化发展进程及展望[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2011,31(3):18-22.
[2]王远飞,张超.Logistic模型参数估计与我国城市化水平预测[J].经济地理,1997,17(4):8-13.
[3]乔松珊,孙成金.优化的Logistic模型及其在城镇化水平预测中的应用[J].许昌学院院报,2016,35(5):10-15.
[4]王帅,滕玉成.基于Logistic模型的县域城镇化率及其推进预测——以济南市平阴县为例[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(社会科学版),2014,33(6):32-37.
[5]赵文英,葛礼霞.基于改进Logistic模型的黑龙江省城镇化水平预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2013,43(13):44-49.
[6]陈彦光,周一星.城镇化Logistic过程的阶段划分及空间解释——对Northam曲线的修正与发展[J].经济地理,2005,25(6):817-822.
[7]冯年华,宣卫红,戴军,王书明.基于Logistic模型的我国城镇化演进轨迹分析[J].生态经济,2015,31(7):76-79.
[8]王建军.城镇化发展阶段划分[J].地理学报,2009,64(2):177-188.
[9]陈素平,张乐勤,许信旺.基于Logistic模型的中国城镇化演进阶段特征及趋势探析[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(2):384-390.
[10]张乐勤,张勇.基于Logistic模型的中国城镇化快速演进期时长、速度及启示[J].河南大学学报(自然版),2015,45(5):550-555.
[11]Bonzo D.C.,Hermosilla A.Y.Clustering Panel Data via Perturbed Adaptive Simulated Annealing and Genetic Algorithms[J].Advances in Complex Systems,2002(4):339-360.
[12]Ren J.,Shi Sh L.Multivariable Panel Data Ordinal Clustering and Its Application in Competitive Strategy Identification of Appliance-wiring Listed Companies[C].International Conference on Management Science&Engineering(16 th),Moscow,Russia,2009:253-258.
[13]李因果,何晓群.面板数据聚类方法及应用[J].统计研究,2010,27(9):73-79.
[14]韩本毅.国城市化发展进程及展望[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2011,31(3):18-22.