共享出行对道路交通伤亡事故的影响
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摘要
基于2004—2016年中国65个地级市交通事故伤亡数据,使用双重差分的方法研究了共享出行对道路交通安全的影响。结果表明:短期内,"滴滴出行"的出现使得一二线城市道路交通死亡人数显著增加,西部地区相对于东部和中部地区交通事故死亡人数显著减少,受伤人数区域间无显著差异;长期来看,"滴滴出行"的出现对道路交通死亡人数和受伤人数均无显著影响。
Based on the traffic accident data of 65 cities in China from 2004 to 2016,this paper studies the impact of ride sharing on road traffic safety using DID strategy.Results show as follows:in a short period,the entry of "didi chuxing" increases traffic accident deaths significantly in the first-tier and second-tier cities,reduces traffic accident deaths in the western region significantly compared with that in the eastern and central regions;the number of injuries is not significantly different among regions;in the long run,the entry of "didi chuxing" has no significant impact on road traffic deaths and injuries.
Based on the traffic accident data of 65 cities in China from 2004 to 2016,this paper studies the impact of ride sharing on road traffic safety using DID strategy.Results show as follows:in a short period,the entry of "didi chuxing" increases traffic accident deaths significantly in the first-tier and second-tier cities,reduces traffic accident deaths in the western region significantly compared with that in the eastern and central regions;the number of injuries is not significantly different among regions;in the long run,the entry of "didi chuxing" has no significant impact on road traffic deaths and injuries.
引文
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[3]ZERVAS G,PROSERPIO D,BYERS J W.The rise of the sharing economy:estimating the impact of Airbnb on the hotel industry[J].Journal of Marketing Research,2017,54(5):687-705.
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[13]SEAMANS R,ZHU F.Responses to entry in multi-sided markets:the impact of Craigslist on local newspapers[J].Management Science,2013,60(2):476-493.
[14]BURTCH G,CARNAHAN S,GREENWOOD B N.Can you gig it?An empirical examination of the gig economy and entrepreneurial activity[J].Management Science,2018,64(12):5497-5520.
[15]BAPNA R,RAMAPRASAD J,SHMUELI G,et al.Oneway mirrors and weak-signaling in online dating:a randomized field experiment[C]//International Conference on Information Systems:Reshaping Society Through Information Systems Design,2013.
[16]PARKER C,RAMDAS K,SAVVA N.Is it enough?Evidence from a natural experiment in India's agriculture markets[J].Management Science,2016,62(9):2481-2503.
[17]HOMEL R.Drivers who drink and rational choice:random breath testing and the process of deterrence[M].London:Routledge,2017.
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[19]Uber,Uber and Mothers Against Drunk Driving.More options.Shifting mindsets.Driving better choices[R].Uber and MADD Report,2015.
[20]BRAZIL N,KIRK D S.Uber and metropolitan traffic fatalities in the United States[J].American journal of epidemiology,2016,184(3):192-198.
[21]GREENWOOD B N,WATTAL S.Show me the way to go home:an empirical investigation of ride-sharing and alcohol related motor vehicle fatalities[J].MIS quarterly,2017,41(1):163-187.
[22]DILLS A K,MULHOLLAND S E.Ride-sharing,fatal crashes,and crime[J].Southern Economic Journal,2018,84(4):965-991.
[23]PECK J L.New York City Drunk Driving after Uber[R].New York:City University of New York,2017.
[24]PINTO L V S.Last call:the effect of car sharing apps on traffic accidents[D].S2o Paulo:School of Economics of S2o Paulo,2018.
[25]MORRISON C N,JACOBY S F,DONG B,et al.Ridesharing and motor vehicle crashes in 4US cities:an interrupted time-series analysis[J].American journal of epidemiology,2017,187(2):224-232.
[26]BARRIOS J M,HOCHBERG Y V,YI H.The Cost of Convenience:Ridesharing and Traffic Fatalities[R].Chicago:Becker Friedman Institute for Economics,2018.
[27]龚杰,贺玉龙,孙小端.酒后驾驶与我国交通事故现状分析[J].道路交通与安全,2016,16(5):7-10.
[28]GENTZKOW M.Television and voter turnout[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2006,121(3):931-972.
[29]葛家澍.创新与趋同相结合的一项准则---评我国新颁布的《企业会计准则---基本准则》[J].会计研究,2006(3):3-6.
[30]陈春.道路交通事故的影响因素研究---基于结构方程模型的实证研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(5):110-116.
[31]柳春红,张春玉,于秀娟.道路交通事故影响因素分析[J].交通科技与经济,2004,6(3):60-61.
[32]马社强,刘东,郑英力.中国道路交通事故影响因素及对策[J].中国人民公安大学学报:自然科学版,2007,13(3):72-76.
[33]任英,彭红星.中国交通事故伤亡人数影响因素的实证分析[J].预测,2013,32(3):1-7.
[34]石忆邵.我国城市交通事故及其影响因素分析[J].城市问题,1993(3):41-45.
[35]GUO Y,XIN F,BARNES S J,et al.Opportunities or threats:the rise of Online Collaborative Consumption(OCC)and its impact on new car sales[J].Electronic Commerce Research and Applications,2018,29:133-141.
[36]BECK T,LEVINE R,LEVKOV A.Big bad banks?The winners and losers from bank deregulation in the United States[J].The Journal of Finance,2010,65(5):1637-1667.
[37]刘名敏,王晓蕾.网约车对城市居民出行方式影响的建模与分析[J].物流科技,2016,39(10):79-82.
(1)数据来自新华网于2016年9月20日报道的“共享经济能否共享增长”,http://www.xinhuanet.com//world/2016-09/20/c_129288909.htm。
(1)数据来自《滴滴出行企业公民报告2017》,http://img-ys011.didistatic.com/static/didiglobal/do1_p53rQtxhA6BjW6uWpF6t。
[2]HARBLUK J L,NOY Y I,TRBOVICH P L,et al.An onroad assessment of cognitive distraction:impacts on drivers'visual behavior and braking performance[J].Accident Analysis&Prevention,2007,39(2):372-379.
[3]ZERVAS G,PROSERPIO D,BYERS J W.The rise of the sharing economy:estimating the impact of Airbnb on the hotel industry[J].Journal of Marketing Research,2017,54(5):687-705.
[4]QIU L,HE L.Bike sharing and the economy,the environment,and health-related externalities[J].Sustainability,2018,10(4):1145.
[5]SCHOLZ T.Platform cooperativism.Challenging the corporate sharing economy[R],Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung New York Office,2016.
[6]沈琼,苏丹.网约车对传统出租车行业冲击的实证分析---以滴滴打车为例[J].河南工业大学学报(社会科学版),2017,13(2):26-30.
[7]LI Z,HONG Y,ZHANG Z.Do On-demand Ride-sharing Services Affect Traffic Congestion?Evidence from Uber Entry[R].Phonenix,Carey School of Business,2016.
[8]LI Z,HONG Y,ZHANG Z.An empirical analysis of ondemand ride sharing and traffic congestion[C]//Dublin:International Conference on Information Systems,2016.
[9]高良谋,张一进.平台理论的演进与启示[J].中国科技论坛,2018(1):123-131.
[10]ADNER R,KAPOOR R.Value creation in innovation ecosystems:how the structure of technological interdependence affects firm performance in new technology generations[J].Strategic management journal,2010,31(3):306-333.
[11]BRYNJOLFSSON E,HU Y,SMITH M D.Consumer surplus in the digital economy:estimating the value of increased product variety at online booksellers[J].Management Science,2003,49(11):1580-1596.
[12]PARKER G G,VAN ALSTYNE M W.Two-sided network effects:a theory of information product design[J].Management science,2005,51(10):1494-1504.
[13]SEAMANS R,ZHU F.Responses to entry in multi-sided markets:the impact of Craigslist on local newspapers[J].Management Science,2013,60(2):476-493.
[14]BURTCH G,CARNAHAN S,GREENWOOD B N.Can you gig it?An empirical examination of the gig economy and entrepreneurial activity[J].Management Science,2018,64(12):5497-5520.
[15]BAPNA R,RAMAPRASAD J,SHMUELI G,et al.Oneway mirrors and weak-signaling in online dating:a randomized field experiment[C]//International Conference on Information Systems:Reshaping Society Through Information Systems Design,2013.
[16]PARKER C,RAMDAS K,SAVVA N.Is it enough?Evidence from a natural experiment in India's agriculture markets[J].Management Science,2016,62(9):2481-2503.
[17]HOMEL R.Drivers who drink and rational choice:random breath testing and the process of deterrence[M].London:Routledge,2017.
[18]TURRISI R,JACCARD J.Cognitive and attitudinal factors in the analysis of alternatives to drunk driving[J].Journal of Studies on Alcohol,1992,53(5):405-414.
[19]Uber,Uber and Mothers Against Drunk Driving.More options.Shifting mindsets.Driving better choices[R].Uber and MADD Report,2015.
[20]BRAZIL N,KIRK D S.Uber and metropolitan traffic fatalities in the United States[J].American journal of epidemiology,2016,184(3):192-198.
[21]GREENWOOD B N,WATTAL S.Show me the way to go home:an empirical investigation of ride-sharing and alcohol related motor vehicle fatalities[J].MIS quarterly,2017,41(1):163-187.
[22]DILLS A K,MULHOLLAND S E.Ride-sharing,fatal crashes,and crime[J].Southern Economic Journal,2018,84(4):965-991.
[23]PECK J L.New York City Drunk Driving after Uber[R].New York:City University of New York,2017.
[24]PINTO L V S.Last call:the effect of car sharing apps on traffic accidents[D].S2o Paulo:School of Economics of S2o Paulo,2018.
[25]MORRISON C N,JACOBY S F,DONG B,et al.Ridesharing and motor vehicle crashes in 4US cities:an interrupted time-series analysis[J].American journal of epidemiology,2017,187(2):224-232.
[26]BARRIOS J M,HOCHBERG Y V,YI H.The Cost of Convenience:Ridesharing and Traffic Fatalities[R].Chicago:Becker Friedman Institute for Economics,2018.
[27]龚杰,贺玉龙,孙小端.酒后驾驶与我国交通事故现状分析[J].道路交通与安全,2016,16(5):7-10.
[28]GENTZKOW M.Television and voter turnout[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2006,121(3):931-972.
[29]葛家澍.创新与趋同相结合的一项准则---评我国新颁布的《企业会计准则---基本准则》[J].会计研究,2006(3):3-6.
[30]陈春.道路交通事故的影响因素研究---基于结构方程模型的实证研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(5):110-116.
[31]柳春红,张春玉,于秀娟.道路交通事故影响因素分析[J].交通科技与经济,2004,6(3):60-61.
[32]马社强,刘东,郑英力.中国道路交通事故影响因素及对策[J].中国人民公安大学学报:自然科学版,2007,13(3):72-76.
[33]任英,彭红星.中国交通事故伤亡人数影响因素的实证分析[J].预测,2013,32(3):1-7.
[34]石忆邵.我国城市交通事故及其影响因素分析[J].城市问题,1993(3):41-45.
[35]GUO Y,XIN F,BARNES S J,et al.Opportunities or threats:the rise of Online Collaborative Consumption(OCC)and its impact on new car sales[J].Electronic Commerce Research and Applications,2018,29:133-141.
[36]BECK T,LEVINE R,LEVKOV A.Big bad banks?The winners and losers from bank deregulation in the United States[J].The Journal of Finance,2010,65(5):1637-1667.
[37]刘名敏,王晓蕾.网约车对城市居民出行方式影响的建模与分析[J].物流科技,2016,39(10):79-82.
(1)数据来自新华网于2016年9月20日报道的“共享经济能否共享增长”,http://www.xinhuanet.com//world/2016-09/20/c_129288909.htm。
(1)数据来自《滴滴出行企业公民报告2017》,http://img-ys011.didistatic.com/static/didiglobal/do1_p53rQtxhA6BjW6uWpF6t。