中美贸易冲突的动因探究与对策——基于美国贸易政策与税改内在逻辑视角
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摘要
美国引发中美贸易冲突是美国单边贸易政策的突出体现,与美国税改等国内政策具有内在逻辑关系。作为特朗普政府的主要政策,美国试图通过减税吸引跨国企业和过渡法人企业向美国本土回流和扩大投资,并通过单边贸易政策建立更有利于美国的贸易规则,既是弥补税改等政策在短期内产生的巨额赤字的需要,也有在中长期形成更有利于美国发展环境的考量。其深层根源在于美国试图通过推动本土实体经济的发展,促进就业、科技和创新水平的提高,建立有利于美国的国际贸易和投资模式,强化美国主导的国际分工格局。深刻认识美国引发贸易冲突的根源有利于中国在贸易磋商中实现最大利益。基于此,中国应认识到美国的单边贸易政策具有不可持续性,解决两国共同诉求问题和双边贸易中存在的结构性问题,关注中美贸易冲突中高技术中间产品对中国发展的影响,继续推动贸易和投资的多元化。从中长期来看,中国应加快结构调整、推动产业升级,在国际竞争和分工中争取更有利的地位。
The Sino-U.S. trade conflict triggered by the United States is a prominent manifestation of the unilateral trade policy of the United States. It has an inherent logical relationship with domestic economic policies such as the tax policy. As the main policy of Trump government,it is trying to attract multinationals and transitional corporate enterprises to reinvest and expand investment in the United States through tax cuts and establish trade regulations that are more conducive to the U.S. through unilateral trade policy. It is not only the need to make up for the huge deficit caused by the tax reform in the short term,but also the need to form a more conducive environment for the development of the United States in the medium and long term. The United States promotes productivity,employment,and technology by promoting the development of its real economy. At the same time,it will also affect international trade patterns and investment,and will have an impact on international division of labor and international industrial transfer. A deep understanding of the causes of the trade conflicts is conductive to China's best interests in trade negotiations. In the long run,China should continue to promote diversification of trade and investment and speed up the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure. While dealing with the impact of trade war,it will occupy a more favorable position in the new round of industrial revolution.
The Sino-U.S. trade conflict triggered by the United States is a prominent manifestation of the unilateral trade policy of the United States. It has an inherent logical relationship with domestic economic policies such as the tax policy. As the main policy of Trump government,it is trying to attract multinationals and transitional corporate enterprises to reinvest and expand investment in the United States through tax cuts and establish trade regulations that are more conducive to the U.S. through unilateral trade policy. It is not only the need to make up for the huge deficit caused by the tax reform in the short term,but also the need to form a more conducive environment for the development of the United States in the medium and long term. The United States promotes productivity,employment,and technology by promoting the development of its real economy. At the same time,it will also affect international trade patterns and investment,and will have an impact on international division of labor and international industrial transfer. A deep understanding of the causes of the trade conflicts is conductive to China's best interests in trade negotiations. In the long run,China should continue to promote diversification of trade and investment and speed up the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure. While dealing with the impact of trade war,it will occupy a more favorable position in the new round of industrial revolution.
引文
[1]张国红.关税内生化理论:一个理论梳理与评价[J].海关与经贸研究,2015(11):102-111.
[2]张丽娟.美国贸易政策的政治经济学[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2017:140-167.
[3]张旗.特朗普的外交革命与自由国际主义的衰落[J].东北亚论坛,2018(4):80-94.
[4]吴其胜.特朗普贸易新政:理念、议程与制约因素[J].国际问题研究,2018(1):124-138.
[5]管传靖.全球价值链与美国贸易政策的调适逻辑[J].世界经济与政治,2018(11):118-155.
[6]于春海,刘成豪.对美国贸易政策调整性质的思考[J].国际贸易,2018(1):37-40.
[7]张丽娟.美国贸易政策的逻辑[J].美国研究,2016(2):18-34.
[8] Postnikov E. Unravelling the Puzzle of Social Standards'Design in EU and US Trade Agreements[J].New Political Economy,2019,24(2):181-196.
[9]李俊久.美国特朗普政府对华贸易冲突的权力逻辑[J].东北亚论坛,2019(2):65-81.
[10]Li C,He C,Lin C. Economic Impacts of the Possible China-US Trade War[J].Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,2018,54(7):1557-1577.
[11]付争.特朗普税改对中国经济的影响—基于与里根税改的比较与借鉴[J].东北亚论坛,2018(3):110-126.
[12]Cole,A. Details and Analysis of Donald Trump's Tax Plan[EB/OL].September 29,2015. http://taxfoundation.org/details-and-analysis-donald-trump-s-tax-plan.
[13]黄立新.特朗普税改法案的总体评析[J].税务研究,2018(1):18-24.
[14]Fuman,J. Tax Reform Should Not Make Other Problems Worse[EB/OL].September 26,2017.http://piie.com/commentary/op-eds/tax-reform-should-nnot-make-other-problems-worse.
[15]Dullien,S. Shifting Views on Trade Liberalisation:Beyond Indiscriminate Applause[J].Intereconomics,2018,53(3):119-124.
[16]任靓.特朗普贸易政策与美对华“301”调查[J].国际贸易问题,2017(12):153-165.
[17]宋泓.特朗普上台后美国贸易及相关政策的变化和影响[J].国际经济评论,2017(1):102-117.
[18] millemaci,e. and Ofria,f.kaldor-Verdoorn's Law and Increasing Returns to Scale:A Comparison Across Developed Countries[J].Journal of Economic Studies,2014,41(1):140-162.
[19]李兵,岳云嵩,陈婷.出口与企业自主技术创新:来自企业专利数据的经验研究[J].世界经济,2016(12):72-94.
[20]屈韬.“新三角贸易”模式下的贸易、投资与创新绩效—基于知识溢出与吸收能力视角的研究[J].亚太经济,2012(1).:39-46.
(1)与传统贸易理论将关税作为外生变量不同,关税内生化理论将关税作为内生变量考虑,强调国内政治和政策因素对关税的形成具有决定性影响,为贸易战提供合理分析框架和工具。
(1)数据资料根据中国商务部网站整理,http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/i/201807/20180702763971.shtml.
(1)数据资料根据美国商务部网站整理,https//www.commerce.gov/data-and-reports/economic-indicators.
(1)数据资料根据美国财政部网站整理,https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd_debttothepenny.htm.
(1)Petre Prisecaru在Challenges of the Fourth Industrial Revolution一文中总结了2016年达沃斯论坛中各专家关于第四次产业革命特点的阐述和相关讨论。
(1)数据来源《中国统计年鉴2018》,北京:中国统计出版社,2018年10月.
[2]张丽娟.美国贸易政策的政治经济学[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2017:140-167.
[3]张旗.特朗普的外交革命与自由国际主义的衰落[J].东北亚论坛,2018(4):80-94.
[4]吴其胜.特朗普贸易新政:理念、议程与制约因素[J].国际问题研究,2018(1):124-138.
[5]管传靖.全球价值链与美国贸易政策的调适逻辑[J].世界经济与政治,2018(11):118-155.
[6]于春海,刘成豪.对美国贸易政策调整性质的思考[J].国际贸易,2018(1):37-40.
[7]张丽娟.美国贸易政策的逻辑[J].美国研究,2016(2):18-34.
[8] Postnikov E. Unravelling the Puzzle of Social Standards'Design in EU and US Trade Agreements[J].New Political Economy,2019,24(2):181-196.
[9]李俊久.美国特朗普政府对华贸易冲突的权力逻辑[J].东北亚论坛,2019(2):65-81.
[10]Li C,He C,Lin C. Economic Impacts of the Possible China-US Trade War[J].Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,2018,54(7):1557-1577.
[11]付争.特朗普税改对中国经济的影响—基于与里根税改的比较与借鉴[J].东北亚论坛,2018(3):110-126.
[12]Cole,A. Details and Analysis of Donald Trump's Tax Plan[EB/OL].September 29,2015. http://taxfoundation.org/details-and-analysis-donald-trump-s-tax-plan.
[13]黄立新.特朗普税改法案的总体评析[J].税务研究,2018(1):18-24.
[14]Fuman,J. Tax Reform Should Not Make Other Problems Worse[EB/OL].September 26,2017.http://piie.com/commentary/op-eds/tax-reform-should-nnot-make-other-problems-worse.
[15]Dullien,S. Shifting Views on Trade Liberalisation:Beyond Indiscriminate Applause[J].Intereconomics,2018,53(3):119-124.
[16]任靓.特朗普贸易政策与美对华“301”调查[J].国际贸易问题,2017(12):153-165.
[17]宋泓.特朗普上台后美国贸易及相关政策的变化和影响[J].国际经济评论,2017(1):102-117.
[18] millemaci,e. and Ofria,f.kaldor-Verdoorn's Law and Increasing Returns to Scale:A Comparison Across Developed Countries[J].Journal of Economic Studies,2014,41(1):140-162.
[19]李兵,岳云嵩,陈婷.出口与企业自主技术创新:来自企业专利数据的经验研究[J].世界经济,2016(12):72-94.
[20]屈韬.“新三角贸易”模式下的贸易、投资与创新绩效—基于知识溢出与吸收能力视角的研究[J].亚太经济,2012(1).:39-46.
(1)与传统贸易理论将关税作为外生变量不同,关税内生化理论将关税作为内生变量考虑,强调国内政治和政策因素对关税的形成具有决定性影响,为贸易战提供合理分析框架和工具。
(1)数据资料根据中国商务部网站整理,http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/i/201807/20180702763971.shtml.
(1)数据资料根据美国商务部网站整理,https//www.commerce.gov/data-and-reports/economic-indicators.
(1)数据资料根据美国财政部网站整理,https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd_debttothepenny.htm.
(1)Petre Prisecaru在Challenges of the Fourth Industrial Revolution一文中总结了2016年达沃斯论坛中各专家关于第四次产业革命特点的阐述和相关讨论。
(1)数据来源《中国统计年鉴2018》,北京:中国统计出版社,2018年10月.