基于三维生态足迹模型的流域自然资本动态评估——以福建省九龙江流域为例
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摘要
自然资本评估是研究区域生态系统平衡及可持续发展的重要方法。文章基于三维生态足迹模型,核算了2000-2015年九龙江流域不同地类及区域人均足迹深度、足迹广度和三维生态足迹,并通过资本流量占用率和存量流量利用比等指标,详细分析了区域自然资本流量、自然资本存量的占用情况及不同地类之间的差异。结果表明:(1)九龙江流域人均足迹深度由2.34增加至4.33,足迹广度由0.463hm2/人增加至0.655hm2/人,三维生态足迹由1.08hm2/人不断扩大至2.84hm2/人,说明区域自然资本流量占用逐渐增大,自然资本存量消耗快速上升,生态系统资源供给压力加剧;(2)不同地类自然资本利用差异显著,除林、草地外,其它用地从2011年开始均处于生态赤字状态;其中,化石能源用地需求增加最快,是区域生态足迹加速上升的最主要原因;(3)促进九龙江流域可持续发展在于增加资本流量限度、减少资本存量消耗,为此需要倡导节约型消费、加大耕地资源保护力度、科学规划建设用地规模、提高能源利用效率等。
Natural capital assessment is an important way to analyze the regional ecosystem balance and sustainable development. Based on the Three-Dimensional Ecological Footprint Model,the per capita footprint depth,footprint size and three-dimensional ecological footprint from 2000 to 2015 were calculated for regional and different land types in the Jiulong River Basin,southeast China. We analyzed the occupation of regional natural capital flow and natural capital stocks,and differences among different land types using the capital flow occupancy rate,use ratio of stocks to flows and other indices. We found that in the Jiulong River Basin,the per capita footprint depth increased from 2.34 to 4.33,the per capita footprint size increased from 0.463hm2 to 0.655hm2,and the per capita three-dimensional ecological footprint expanded from 1.08hm2to2.84hm2. This means that the occupation level of regional natural capital flows gradually increased,the consumption of natural capital stocks rapidly increased,and thus resulted in the more intensive pressure on ecosystem services. Significant differences lie in the use of natural capital in different land types. All land types but forest and grassland performed were in ecological deficit from 2011.Increased demand on fossil energy land was the fastest and led to accelerated increase in the regional ecological footprint. Increasing natural capital flows and reducing the consumption of natural capital stocks are urgently required in order to achieve regional sustainability. More measures are encouraged to regulate construction land scale,protect limited cultivated land,improve energy use efficiency and promote conservation-oriented consumption.
Natural capital assessment is an important way to analyze the regional ecosystem balance and sustainable development. Based on the Three-Dimensional Ecological Footprint Model,the per capita footprint depth,footprint size and three-dimensional ecological footprint from 2000 to 2015 were calculated for regional and different land types in the Jiulong River Basin,southeast China. We analyzed the occupation of regional natural capital flow and natural capital stocks,and differences among different land types using the capital flow occupancy rate,use ratio of stocks to flows and other indices. We found that in the Jiulong River Basin,the per capita footprint depth increased from 2.34 to 4.33,the per capita footprint size increased from 0.463hm2 to 0.655hm2,and the per capita three-dimensional ecological footprint expanded from 1.08hm2to2.84hm2. This means that the occupation level of regional natural capital flows gradually increased,the consumption of natural capital stocks rapidly increased,and thus resulted in the more intensive pressure on ecosystem services. Significant differences lie in the use of natural capital in different land types. All land types but forest and grassland performed were in ecological deficit from 2011.Increased demand on fossil energy land was the fastest and led to accelerated increase in the regional ecological footprint. Increasing natural capital flows and reducing the consumption of natural capital stocks are urgently required in order to achieve regional sustainability. More measures are encouraged to regulate construction land scale,protect limited cultivated land,improve energy use efficiency and promote conservation-oriented consumption.
引文
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[21]胡美娟,周年兴,李在军,等.南京市三维生态足迹测算及驱动因子[J].地理与地理信息科学,2015,31(1):91-95.[Hu M J,Zhou N X,Li Z J,et al.Calculation and driving factor analysis of three-dimensional ecological footprint in Nanjing City[J].Geography and Geo-information Science,2015,31(1):91-95.]
[22]刘超,许月卿,孙丕苓,等.基于改进三维生态足迹模型的张家口市生态可持续性评价[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(6):169-176.[Liu C,Xu Y Q,Sun P L,et al.[Evaluation of ecological sustainability based on revised three-dimensional model of ecological footprint in Zhangjiakou City[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,36(6):169-176.]
[23]黄艳丽,乔卫芳.焦作市人均三维生态足迹的动态分析[J].资源开发与市场,2017,33(2):156-173.[Huang Y L,Qiao W F.Dynamic analysis of per capita three-dimensional ecological footprint in Jiaozuo City[J].Resource Development&Market,2017,33(2):156-173.]
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[26]郭秀锐,杨居荣,毛显强.城市生态足迹计算与分析-以广州为例[J].地理研究,2003,22(5):654-662.[Guo X R,Yang J R,Mao X Q.Calculation and analysis of urban ecological footprint:A case study of Guangzhou[J].Geographical Research,2003,22(5):654-662.]
[27]方恺,沈万斌,郑沁敏,等.化石能源地生态承载力研究[J].环境科学与技术,2011,34(12):201-205.[Fang K,Shen W B,Zheng Q M,et al.Ecological carrying capacity of fossil energy land[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2011,34(12):201-205.]
[28]谢鸿宇,陈贤生,林凯荣,等.基于碳循环的化石能源及电力生态足迹[J].生态学报,2008,28(4):1729-1735.[Xie H Y,Chen X S,Lin K R,et al.The ecological footprint analysis of fossil energy and electricity[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2008,28(4):1729-1735.]
[29]赵荣钦,黄贤金.基于能源消费的江苏省土地利用碳排放与碳足迹[J].地理研究,2010,29(9):1639-1649.[Zhao R Q,Huang X J.Carbon emission and carbon footprint of different land use types based on energy consumption of Jiangsu Province[J].Geographical Research,2010,29(9):1639-1649.]
[30]甄霖,魏云洁,谢高地,等.中国土地利用多功能性动态的区域分析[J].生态学报,2010,30(24):6749-6761.[Lin Z,Wei Y J,Xie G D,et al.Regional analysis of dynamic land use functions in China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2010,30(24):6749-6761.]
[31]靳相木,柳乾坤.自然资源核算的生态足迹模型演进及其评论[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(1):163-176.[Jin X M,Liu Q K.395Evolution of ecological footprint model based on natural resources accounting[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(1):163-176.]
[32]彭希哲,刘宇辉.生态足迹与区域生态适度人口-以西部12省市为例[J].人口与发展,2004,10(4):9-15.[Peng X Z,Liu YH.Ecological footprint and regional eco-optimum population:Take China's western provinces as an example[J].Market&Demographic Analysis,2004,10(4):9-15.]
[33]Rees W,Wackernagel M.Urban ecological footprints:Why cities cannot be sustainable-and why they are a key to sustainability[J].Environmental Impact Assessment Review,1996,16(4-6):223-248.
[2]高兴佑,郭昀.可持续发展观下的自然资源价格构成研究[J].资源与产业,2010,12(2):129-133.[Gao X Y,Guo Y.Study on price structure of natural resources from the point of view of sustainable development[J].Resources&Industries,2010,12(2):129-133.]
[3]Hambira W L.Natural resources accounting:A tool for water resources management in Botswana[J].Physics&Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/b/c,2007,32(15-18):1310-1314.
[4]Harris M,Fraser I.Natural resource accounting in theory and practice:A critical assessment[J].Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,2002,46(2):139-192.
[5]Rees W E.Ecological footprints and appropriated carrying capacity:What urban economics leaves out[J].Environment&Urbanization,1992,4(2):121-130.
[6]徐中民,程国栋,张志强.生态足迹方法的理论解析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(6):69-78.[Xu Z M,Cheng G D,Zhang Z Q.A resolution to the conception of ecological footprint[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2006,16(6):69-78.]
[7]Niccolucci V,Bastianoni S,Tiezzi E B P,et al.How deep is the footprint?A 3D representation[J].Ecological Modelling,2009,220(20):2819-2823.
[8]Niccolucci V,Galli A,Reed A,et al.Towards a 3D national ecological footprint geography[J].Ecological Modelling,2011,222(16):2939-2944.
[9]方恺,Reinout H.自然资本核算的生态足迹三维模型研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(12):1700-1707.[Fang K,Reinout H.A review on three-dimensional ecological footprint model for natural capital accounting[J].Progress in Geography,2012,31(12):1700-1707.]
[10]方恺.生态足迹深度和广度:构建三维模型的新指标[J].生态学报,2013,33(1):267-274.[Fang K.Ecological footprint depth and size:New indicators for a 3D model[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2013,33(1):267-274.]
[11]靳相木,柳乾坤.基于三维生态足迹模型扩展的土地承载力指数研究-以温州市为例[J].生态学报,2017,37(9):1-12.[Jin XM,Liu Q K.Analysis of a land carrying capacity index based on an expanded three-dimensional ecological footprint model:Acase study of Wenzhou[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2017,37(9):1-12.]
[12]方恺,高凯,李焕承.基于三维生态足迹模型优化的自然资本利用国际比较[J].地理研究,2013,32(9):1657-1667.[Fang K,Gao K,Li H C,et al.International comparison of natural capital use:A three-dimensional model optimization of ecological footprint[J].Geographical Research,2013,32(9):1657-1667.]
[13]方恺.1999-2008年G20国家自然资本利用的空间格局变化[J].资源科学,2014,36(4):793-800.[Fang K.Changes in the spatial distribution of natural capital use among G20 countries from 1999 to 2008[J].Resources Science,2014,36(4):793-800.]
[14]方恺.基于改进生态足迹三维模型的自然资本利用特征分析-选取11个国家为数据源[J].生态学报,2015,35(11):3766-3777.[Fang K.Assessing the natural capital use of major nations:An application of a revised three-dimensional model of ecological footprint[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(11):3766-3777.]
[15]方恺,李焕承.基于生态足迹深度和广度的中国自然资本利用省际格局[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(12):1995-2005.[Fang K,Li H C.Provincial pattern of China's natural capital use:Amodification and application of ecological footprint depth and size[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2012,27(12):1995-2005.]
[16]杜悦悦,彭建,高阳,等.基于三维生态足迹的京津冀城市群自然资本可持续利用分析[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(10):1186-1196.[Du Y Y,Peng J,Gao Y,et al.Sustainability evaluation of natural capital utilization based on a threedimensional ecological footprint model:A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan region[J].Progress in Geography,2016,35(10):1186-1196.]
[17]张星星,曾辉.珠江三角洲城市群三维生态足迹动态变化及驱动力分析[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(2):771-778.[Zhang XX,Zeng H.Dynamic of three dimensional ecological footprint in the Peral River Delta and its driving factors[J].Acta Scientiae Circumatantiae,2017,37(2):771-778.]
[18]高子轶,李晶.陕西省自然资本核算的三维生态足迹模型应用研究[J].陕西师范大学学报(自科版),2014,42(5):79-83.[Gao Z T,Li J.Application of the new 3D ecological footprint model in natural capital accounting of Shaanxi Province[J].Journal of Shaanxi Normal University,2014,42(5):79-83.]
[19]秦超,李君轶,陈宏飞,等.基于三维生态足迹的陕西省自然资本动态研究[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(4):837-842.[Qin C,Li J Y,Chen H F,et al.Dynamics of natural capital in Shaanxi Province based on the three-dimensional ecological footprint[J].Arid Zone Research,2016,33(4):837-842.]
[20]秦超,李君轶,陈宏飞.基于三维生态足迹的锡林郭勒盟自然资本动态研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(9):51-56.[Qin C,Li J Y,Chen H F.Dynamic analysis of natural capital in Xilinguole League based on the three-dimensional ecological footprint[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2015,29(9):51-56.]
[21]胡美娟,周年兴,李在军,等.南京市三维生态足迹测算及驱动因子[J].地理与地理信息科学,2015,31(1):91-95.[Hu M J,Zhou N X,Li Z J,et al.Calculation and driving factor analysis of three-dimensional ecological footprint in Nanjing City[J].Geography and Geo-information Science,2015,31(1):91-95.]
[22]刘超,许月卿,孙丕苓,等.基于改进三维生态足迹模型的张家口市生态可持续性评价[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(6):169-176.[Liu C,Xu Y Q,Sun P L,et al.[Evaluation of ecological sustainability based on revised three-dimensional model of ecological footprint in Zhangjiakou City[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,36(6):169-176.]
[23]黄艳丽,乔卫芳.焦作市人均三维生态足迹的动态分析[J].资源开发与市场,2017,33(2):156-173.[Huang Y L,Qiao W F.Dynamic analysis of per capita three-dimensional ecological footprint in Jiaozuo City[J].Resource Development&Market,2017,33(2):156-173.]
[24]福建省统计局.福建省统计年鉴(2001,2006,2011-2016)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001,2006,2011-2016.[Fujian Province Bureau of Statistics.Fujian Statistical Yearbook(2001,2006,2011-2016)[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2001,2006,2011-2016.]
[25]杨屹,加涛.21世纪以来陕西生态足迹和承载力变化[J].生态学报,2015,35(24):7987-7997.[Yang Y,Jia T.The 21st century ecological carrying capacity and footprint in Shaanxi Province[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(24):7987-7997.]
[26]郭秀锐,杨居荣,毛显强.城市生态足迹计算与分析-以广州为例[J].地理研究,2003,22(5):654-662.[Guo X R,Yang J R,Mao X Q.Calculation and analysis of urban ecological footprint:A case study of Guangzhou[J].Geographical Research,2003,22(5):654-662.]
[27]方恺,沈万斌,郑沁敏,等.化石能源地生态承载力研究[J].环境科学与技术,2011,34(12):201-205.[Fang K,Shen W B,Zheng Q M,et al.Ecological carrying capacity of fossil energy land[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2011,34(12):201-205.]
[28]谢鸿宇,陈贤生,林凯荣,等.基于碳循环的化石能源及电力生态足迹[J].生态学报,2008,28(4):1729-1735.[Xie H Y,Chen X S,Lin K R,et al.The ecological footprint analysis of fossil energy and electricity[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2008,28(4):1729-1735.]
[29]赵荣钦,黄贤金.基于能源消费的江苏省土地利用碳排放与碳足迹[J].地理研究,2010,29(9):1639-1649.[Zhao R Q,Huang X J.Carbon emission and carbon footprint of different land use types based on energy consumption of Jiangsu Province[J].Geographical Research,2010,29(9):1639-1649.]
[30]甄霖,魏云洁,谢高地,等.中国土地利用多功能性动态的区域分析[J].生态学报,2010,30(24):6749-6761.[Lin Z,Wei Y J,Xie G D,et al.Regional analysis of dynamic land use functions in China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2010,30(24):6749-6761.]
[31]靳相木,柳乾坤.自然资源核算的生态足迹模型演进及其评论[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(1):163-176.[Jin X M,Liu Q K.395Evolution of ecological footprint model based on natural resources accounting[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(1):163-176.]
[32]彭希哲,刘宇辉.生态足迹与区域生态适度人口-以西部12省市为例[J].人口与发展,2004,10(4):9-15.[Peng X Z,Liu YH.Ecological footprint and regional eco-optimum population:Take China's western provinces as an example[J].Market&Demographic Analysis,2004,10(4):9-15.]
[33]Rees W,Wackernagel M.Urban ecological footprints:Why cities cannot be sustainable-and why they are a key to sustainability[J].Environmental Impact Assessment Review,1996,16(4-6):223-248.