基于“双控”的河北省能源消费结构低碳优化研究
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摘要
在明确基本假设的基础上,综合考虑节能减排目标,以经济增长、节能、温室气体控排、能源资源禀赋、技术进步等为约束条件,建立河北省能源消费结构低碳优化模型;根据河北省能源现状及发展规划设计参数,对2020年的能源结构低碳化进行多目标优化。结果显示:最优能耗方案无法实现经济增长目标,最优碳减排方案的能源消费总量较高且一次电力消费目标的可行性较低;最优能源强度方案综合平衡节能和减排目标,不仅能够顺利完成河北省"十三五"节能减排、经济增长等目标,而且可行性较强。
This paper, aiming at energy-saving-emission-reduction objective, establishes a low carbon optimized model of Hebei's energy consumption structure from economic growth, energy-saving, green-house gas emission control, energy resource abundance and technical advances, which is employed to optimize many objectives of low carbon energy consumption structure in 2020 based on Hebei's energy situation and planning. The premier energy consumption plan can not ensure the economic growth objective, the premier carbon reduction plan has higher energy consumption and lower feasibility in one-time power consumption objective, the premier energy intensity plan is a balance between energy saving and emission reduction, which makes sure the objectives of Hebei's "13~(th) Five Years Plan" energy saving and economic growth with feasibility.
This paper, aiming at energy-saving-emission-reduction objective, establishes a low carbon optimized model of Hebei's energy consumption structure from economic growth, energy-saving, green-house gas emission control, energy resource abundance and technical advances, which is employed to optimize many objectives of low carbon energy consumption structure in 2020 based on Hebei's energy situation and planning. The premier energy consumption plan can not ensure the economic growth objective, the premier carbon reduction plan has higher energy consumption and lower feasibility in one-time power consumption objective, the premier energy intensity plan is a balance between energy saving and emission reduction, which makes sure the objectives of Hebei's "13~(th) Five Years Plan" energy saving and economic growth with feasibility.
引文
程叶青,王哲野,张守志,等,2013.中国能源消费碳排放强度及其影响因素的空间计量[J].地理学报,68(10):1418- 1431.
邓吉祥,刘晓,王铮,2014.中国碳排放的区域差异及演变特征分析与因素分解[J].自然资源学报,29(2):189- 199.
韩晶,王赟,陈超凡,2015.中国工业碳排放绩效的区域差异及影响因素研究[J].经济社会体制比较 (1):113- 124.
韩梦瑶,刘卫东,唐志鹏,等,2017.世界主要国家碳排放影响因素分析[J].资源科学,39(12):2420- 2429.
马大来,陈仲常,王玲,2015.中国省际碳排放效率的空间计量[J].中国人口·资源与环境,25(1):67- 77.
邱立新,徐海涛,2018.中国城市群碳排放时空演变及影响因素分析[J].软科学,32(1):109- 113.
唐志鹏,刘卫东,宋涛,2017.基于混合地理加权回归的中国省域碳生产率影响因素分析[J].资源科学,39(12):2223- 2232.
王修华,王翔,2012.产业结构升级与低碳经济发展的耦合研究[J].软科学,26(3):29- 32.
张文彤,2002.SPSS 11统计分析教程:高级篇[M].北京:北京希望电子出版社.
DUTTA C B,DAS D K,2016.Does disaggregated CO2 emission matter for growth?evidence from thirty countries[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (66):825- 833.
SHIN,2014.An error-correction model on the determinants of CO2 emissions of Korea[J].The Korean Journal of Economic Studies,62(3):5- 28.
ZHOU C S,WANG S J;FENG K S,2018.Examining the socioeconomic determinants of CO2 emissions in China:A historical and prospective analysis[J].Resources Conservation and Recycling (130):1- 11.
邓吉祥,刘晓,王铮,2014.中国碳排放的区域差异及演变特征分析与因素分解[J].自然资源学报,29(2):189- 199.
韩晶,王赟,陈超凡,2015.中国工业碳排放绩效的区域差异及影响因素研究[J].经济社会体制比较 (1):113- 124.
韩梦瑶,刘卫东,唐志鹏,等,2017.世界主要国家碳排放影响因素分析[J].资源科学,39(12):2420- 2429.
马大来,陈仲常,王玲,2015.中国省际碳排放效率的空间计量[J].中国人口·资源与环境,25(1):67- 77.
邱立新,徐海涛,2018.中国城市群碳排放时空演变及影响因素分析[J].软科学,32(1):109- 113.
唐志鹏,刘卫东,宋涛,2017.基于混合地理加权回归的中国省域碳生产率影响因素分析[J].资源科学,39(12):2223- 2232.
王修华,王翔,2012.产业结构升级与低碳经济发展的耦合研究[J].软科学,26(3):29- 32.
张文彤,2002.SPSS 11统计分析教程:高级篇[M].北京:北京希望电子出版社.
DUTTA C B,DAS D K,2016.Does disaggregated CO2 emission matter for growth?evidence from thirty countries[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (66):825- 833.
SHIN,2014.An error-correction model on the determinants of CO2 emissions of Korea[J].The Korean Journal of Economic Studies,62(3):5- 28.
ZHOU C S,WANG S J;FENG K S,2018.Examining the socioeconomic determinants of CO2 emissions in China:A historical and prospective analysis[J].Resources Conservation and Recycling (130):1- 11.