全球价值链背景下中美制造业双边贸易结构分析
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摘要
利用WWZ法将2000—2014年中美制造业双边贸易总值分解,然后从增加值视觉剖析两国制造业双边贸易结构、比较优势及贸易互补变化。结果表明:美国对中国出口结构以中高端制造业为主,而中国对美国出口虽由低技术制造业为主转为中高端制造业为出口大宗,但美国依旧控制着中国高新技术产品生产链条;传统贸易统计口径严重高估中美贸易差额,补偿性及竞争性贸易逆差符合美国经济利益;中国低技术制造业比较优势下滑,但中美仍有贸易合作空间;中国作为美国高端制造业的"加工厂"为美国输入高额利润的模式仍将持续。
This paper firstly uses the WWZ method to decompose the total bilateral trade value of China-US manufacturing industry from 2000 to 2014,and then visually analyzes the bilateral trade structure,comparative advantage and trade complementarity between the two countries' manufacturing industries from the perspective of value added. The results show that the US exports to China are dominated by medium and high-end manufacturing industries,while China's exports to the United States have shifted from low-tech manufacturing to medium-to-high-end manufacturing,but the United States still controls China's high-tech production chain. Traditional trade statistics seriously overestimate China-US trade balance,compensatory and competitive trade deficits are in line with US economic interests; the comparative advantage of China's low-tech manufacturing declines,but China and the United States still have space for trade cooperation; the mode where China inputs high profits as a"processing plant"of high-end manufacturing industry for the United States will continue.
This paper firstly uses the WWZ method to decompose the total bilateral trade value of China-US manufacturing industry from 2000 to 2014,and then visually analyzes the bilateral trade structure,comparative advantage and trade complementarity between the two countries' manufacturing industries from the perspective of value added. The results show that the US exports to China are dominated by medium and high-end manufacturing industries,while China's exports to the United States have shifted from low-tech manufacturing to medium-to-high-end manufacturing,but the United States still controls China's high-tech production chain. Traditional trade statistics seriously overestimate China-US trade balance,compensatory and competitive trade deficits are in line with US economic interests; the comparative advantage of China's low-tech manufacturing declines,but China and the United States still have space for trade cooperation; the mode where China inputs high profits as a"processing plant"of high-end manufacturing industry for the United States will continue.
引文
[1]刘建江,杨细珍.产品内分工视角下中美贸易失衡中的贸易利益研究[J].国际贸易问题,2011(8):68-80.
[2]谢建国,杨海燕.互补还是替代---中美贸易竞争关系的测度与分析[J].国际贸易问题,2015(11):62-72.
[3]余珮.美国再工业化背景下中美制造业嵌入全球价值链的比较研究[J].经济学家,2017(11):88-96.
[4]HUMMELS D,ISHII J,YI K M.The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade[J].Journal of International E-conomics,2001,54(1):75-96.
[5]WANG Z,WEI S J,ZHU K F.Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Levels[R].NBER Working Paper,No.19677,2013.
[6]王直,魏尚进,祝坤福.总贸易核算法:官方贸易统计与全球价值链的度量[J].中国社会科学,2015(9):108-127.
[2]谢建国,杨海燕.互补还是替代---中美贸易竞争关系的测度与分析[J].国际贸易问题,2015(11):62-72.
[3]余珮.美国再工业化背景下中美制造业嵌入全球价值链的比较研究[J].经济学家,2017(11):88-96.
[4]HUMMELS D,ISHII J,YI K M.The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade[J].Journal of International E-conomics,2001,54(1):75-96.
[5]WANG Z,WEI S J,ZHU K F.Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Levels[R].NBER Working Paper,No.19677,2013.
[6]王直,魏尚进,祝坤福.总贸易核算法:官方贸易统计与全球价值链的度量[J].中国社会科学,2015(9):108-127.